4:52 Warwick
This Class 5 National Hunt Flat race at Warwick over 2m on good to firm ground brings together a field of 13 largely unexposed types, many with minimal public form and several making their rules debut. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by I've Got A Friend on 61, with only three others above 50, underlining how little hard evidence there is to separate the runners. Most of the field are unproven on good to firm and lack any course form, so the race looks open and dependent on how the limited pieces of recent form translate.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only thin evidence for a clear front-runner. I've Got A Friend tends to make the running or race prominently, which could give him an uncontested lead in a race where most principals are either held up or settle in midfield. The key question will be whether that early position proves an advantage on ground that could quicken late, or whether the hold-up performers such as Rescheduled and Molly Des Bruyeres can close effectively off what is likely to be a modest gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1I've Got A Friend KTB Selection61/100
I've Got A Friend arrives with the strongest recent form of U2-1 and has already won over today's 2m trip at his only attempt at the distance. Gary Hanmer brings a 22% strike rate at Warwick from 50 runs and teams up with James Davies, whose combination shows an A/E of 1.55. The horse tends to make the running or race prominently, a run-style that could be particularly useful given the tentative pace shape. He has no experience of good to firm ground and no previous course form, while only one run in the last year keeps the overall picture cautious, yet the KTB Fit score of 61 marks him out as the one to beat.
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2Whiteoak Duffy58/100
Whiteoak Duffy has a single run on his record, a tailed-off effort last year that provides almost no concrete information. Dropping back to 2m is viewed as a neutral move at best having already been beaten at the trip, and the yard has no Warwick record from a small overall sample of just nine runs. He remains unproven on good to firm and has no course form, leaving the assessment reliant on very limited data. The KTB Fit rating of 58 reflects that scarcity of information while still placing him second in the numbers.
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3Rescheduled51/100
Rescheduled has had only one career run in the last year, so any judgement must be suitably cautious with the form picture remaining thin. Dropping from 2m1f to 2m poses a fresh question at a trip he has never tried before, and he is unproven on good to firm with no course form to his name. Donald McCain holds a 12% strike rate at Warwick from 97 runs, while Theo Gillard’s record at the track is not supplied. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his run-style could come into play if the race develops a steady gallop; the KTB Fit of 51 keeps him in the mix among the principals.
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4Farm Assured51/100
Farm Assured is a debutant under rules with only two pieces of jumps form shown as 1-P. Samuel Drinkwater’s yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Warwick from 29 runs, which offers some encouragement, yet with low data confidence the rest remains guesswork based on pedigree and sales background. He has no course win on record and the going is rated neutral with no specific data available. The KTB Fit score of 51 places him squarely among the leading group in a race where many runners share similar limitations of information.
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5Moorland Belle50/100
Moorland Belle is a newcomer from the Dan Skelton yard, which operates at a solid 21% strike rate at Warwick from a large sample of 700 runs. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on her sales and pedigree background, and she has no course win on record. By Poet's Word, whose progeny show a 10% overall win rate, she is another whose ability must be taken on trust. Low data confidence means any conclusions remain tentative, yet the KTB Fit of 50 still leaves her as the last of the principals.
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6Mon Missel48/100
Mon Missel showed promise when second in an Irish point before falling in his second start and is a debutant under rules whose pedigree and sales background suggest he could make an impact. Jamie Snowden has a 15% strike rate at Warwick from 85 runs and teams up with Gavin Sheehan; the KTB Fit is 48.
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7Molly Des Bruyeres47/100
Molly Des Bruyeres has only one run to her name, a modest seventh on debut over 2m1½f, and now drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The yard has no Warwick record and overall figures of 6% from 98 runs; the KTB Fit is 47 and she is held up in her run-style.
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8The Gloves Are Off47/100
The Gloves Are Off is a debutant with very limited public form and the yard has no recorded runners at Warwick, so their local record is unknown. With low data confidence the assessment relies on pedigree and sales background; the KTB Fit is 47.
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9Secret Jet Away46/100
Secret Jet Away showed modest form when finishing fourth on debut over this trip and the yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 115 runs at Warwick. With only one run on the clock the overall picture remains very limited; the KTB Fit is 46 and he settles in midfield.
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10Ruby Rocks46/100
Ruby Rocks is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but with low data confidence it is impossible to gauge her ability. Olly Murphy has a 13% strike rate at Warwick from 194 runs; the KTB Fit is 46.
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11Lucky Bailly45/100
Lucky Bailly has very limited racecourse experience with just two runs and a 7P- form line that offers little encouragement, and he drops back to 2m having failed to make an impact at the distance before. The trainer holds a modest 6% strike rate at Warwick from 115 runs; the KTB Fit is 45.
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12Tommy Tipa44/100
Tommy Tipa is a lightly raced 5-year-old with just one run to go on after finishing fifth on debut and the drop back to 2m asks a fresh question having last run over 2m1½f. The trainer has only four runs at Warwick which is too small a sample to judge; the KTB Fit is 44.
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13Lizziemouth41/100
Lizziemouth is a debutant with no racecourse experience and the trainer has a poor record at Warwick with a 0% strike rate from 48 runs. Data confidence is low so any assessment relies heavily on pedigree and sales background; the KTB Fit is 41.
KTB verdict
I've Got A Friend stands out as the KTB Selection on the back of his recent form of U2-1 and a win already over today's trip. The combination of Gary Hanmer’s healthy 22% strike rate at Warwick and a prominent run-style in a race with only tentative pace evidence gives him a clear profile edge. His main dangers are likely to come from the Skelton newcomer Moorland Belle, the Snowden debutant Mon Missel and the McCain horse Rescheduled, all of whom bring some yard strength but considerably less hard form to the table in a race where many questions remain unanswered.
KTB Selection I've Got A Friend
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 Warwick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Warwick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Warwick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over today’s 2m trip?
I've Got A Friend, from his only attempt at the distance.
What is the trainer strike rate at Warwick for the yard of the KTB Selection?
22% from 50 runs for Gary Hanmer.
Which runner is dropping in class and has only one run in the last year?
Rescheduled.
Which debutant is by Poet's Word out of a yard with a 21% Warwick strike rate?
Moorland Belle from the Dan Skelton stable.
Which horse showed promise in an Irish point before falling on his second start?
Mon Missel.
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