3:08 Nottingham
This Class 3 EBF Oh So Sharp Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 1m0f75y at Nottingham on good ground brings together a compact field of seven two-year-olds where experience is limited and pedigree plays a significant part. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by the debutant Bejewel on 60, with Thi Qar and Sweet Katarina both on 55 and Avebury Ring on 51. Overall the numbers suggest a race short on hard facts, with trainer and jockey course records and the steadily-run pace shape likely to prove more influential than established form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and confidence in the forecast is low, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With several runners noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around two furlongs out. The key question is whether any horse can secure a prominent position without using too much energy early, or whether the closers will be able to weave their way through in the straight on this good surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bejewel KTB Selection60/100
Bejewel lines up for Tom Ward and Sean Levey on her first start. The assessment rests on pedigree and sales background together with the yard's solid record here. Tom Ward has a 22% strike rate at Nottingham from 36 runs while Sean Levey posts a 16% strike rate from 164 rides at the track. By Baaeed, she comes from a sire with a 19% overall win rate from 27 runners. With low data confidence any firm conclusions are impossible at this stage, yet the combination of yard statistics and bloodlines makes her of obvious interest in a race that lacks depth.
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2Thi Qar55/100
Thi Qar has finished second on both starts to date over 7f and now steps up to 1m for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Rated 84, she is dropping in class. John & Thady Gosden and William Buick both have strong records at Nottingham, the yard at 21% strike rate from 71 runs and the jockey at 22% from 214 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. Not much else to go on at this stage, though the yard-jockey axis and prior placings command respect.
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3Sweet Katarina55/100
Sweet Katarina has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then eighth. Rated after those efforts, she is dropping in class and being asked a new question over this trip having failed to make an impact in one previous attempt at the distance. The yard have a strong 23% strike rate at Nottingham from 40 runs although David Probert is operating at 10% from 271 rides here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to find considerable improvement to feature. One run on good ground brought no win or place.
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4Avebury Ring51/100
Avebury Ring is a newcomer who cost 220,000 guineas at the sales. By Frankel out of a Group-placed dam, she is a half-brother to a couple of winners including the smart middle-distance performer My Prospero. Ralph Beckett is in decent form at Nottingham with an 18% strike rate from a big sample of 374 runs and James Doyle rides at a solid 21% strike rate from 332 rides here. By Wootton Bassett, a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 5892 runners. With low data confidence on a debutant that leaves plenty to chance on the day, yet the pedigree and connections make her noteworthy.
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5Lavender Bay49/100
Lavender Bay is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. James Fanshawe has a solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 427 runs while Daniel Muscutt is less prolific here at 7%. First-time headgear is applied on debut and the low data confidence means any assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
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6Empress Jingu46/100
Empress Jingu has shown steady rather than sparkling form in two starts, finishing fifth then third without suggesting she is well up to this class. The trip looks about right having already tried it once, though the small sample means her true level remains unclear. Andrew Balding has a 12% strike rate here from 227 runs while Rob Hornby is operating at 15% from 193 rides. One run on good brought no win or place and she is usually held up.
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7Princess Lottie38/100
Princess Lottie is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, with figures of 542. She has finished in the frame once at this trip but has never won and remains open to improvement as a juvenile. Philip McBride and Kevin Stott both have established but below-average records at Nottingham, the yard at 8% strike rate from 61 runs. One run on good brought no win or place.
KTB verdict
Bejewel is the KTB Selection. She brings the benefit of a yard with a 22% strike rate at Nottingham and a jockey who is 16% here, allied to an appealing pedigree by Baaeed. In a race short on established form and with a steadily-run shape in prospect, her debut effort will be taken on trust. The main dangers are Thi Qar, who has shown consistent placed form and represents a powerful yard-jockey combination, and the well-bred newcomer Avebury Ring. Sweet Katarina may struggle to reverse her previous modest efforts despite the drop in class.
KTB Selection Bejewel
This is the narrative read of the 3:08 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time after two seconds over 7f?
Thi Qar
What is the trainer strike rate at Nottingham for the yard of the KTB Selection?
22% strike rate at Nottingham from 36 runs
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear on debut?
Lavender Bay
How many previous starts has Sweet Katarina had, and what were her finishing positions?
Two starts, finishing ninth then eighth
What is the sire of Avebury Ring and how many winners has he produced from his runners?
By Frankel out of a Group-placed dam and a half-brother to a couple of winners including the smart middle-distance performer My Prospero
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