3:43 Nottingham
This Class 4 handicap at Nottingham over 1m 75y on good ground brings together an evenly-matched field of eleven where official ratings cluster tightly between 74 and 85. The KTB Fit Scores are headed by Caim on 66, closely followed by Revelance on 65, with the next three principals all sitting on 58. Overall the numbers point to a competitive race in which yard and jockey track records, as well as the ability to handle a strong pace, are likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present. Revelance and Eagle Bay both tend to make the running or race prominently, which sets up the likelihood of an honest gallop that could collapse in the final furlong. That pace profile should favour horses with a held-up style who can deliver their effort late, making positioning off the speed and timing the run the key question the race poses.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Caim KTB Selection66/100
Caim is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form at this trip on his first two starts. He has not built on that since, finishing only midfield on both outings this season, and first-time headgear is now applied. The yard and jockey both have above-average records at Nottingham, the trainer showing a 22% strike rate with an A/E of 1.21 from 54 runs and the jockey a 17% strike rate with an A/E of 1.36 from 96 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. He carries an official rating of 85 from draw 7 and arrives with recent form figures of 12-496. As the KTB Selection he is taken to capitalise on the yard's local record and the first-time headgear.
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2Revelance65/100
Revelance is a fair performer who has won twice at today's trip from eight attempts and showed his best recent form when winning at Kempton in March. He has placed on his only start on good ground but has been hit and miss since that last success with a ninth at Newmarket on his most recent outing. Dropping in class, he is likely to set the pace or race prominently in a strongly-run affair that could play to his strengths if the front end holds. The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 374 runs while the jockey is operating at 21% from 332 rides, though their combined record reads 25/215 with an A/E of 0.82. Carrying an official rating of 85 from a wide draw of 11, his recent form reads 9-7616.
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3Empire of Light58/100
Empire of Light is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has won over today's trip but drops back from 1m2½f and his recent form has tailed off sharply after a promising start to the year. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike-rate here from 18 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first Nottingham winner from 22 rides, their partnership showing 70/593 with an A/E of 0.88. He has a record of 1 win from 10 starts on good ground with three places and carries an official rating of 85 from the inside draw.
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4We Dare To Dream58/100
We Dare To Dream is a fair performer who has shown his best form on good ground, placing four times from five starts. He has been out of sorts on his last three outings and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Nottingham. The trip looks about right and the jockey's solid record at the track, an 18% strike rate with an A/E of 1.2 from 28 rides, offers some encouragement even though the trainer's figures here read a modest 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.63 from 169 runs. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace. His recent form reads 20060- and he carries an official rating of 82.
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5Eagle Bay58/100
Eagle Bay is a fair performer who showed useful early promise with two quick wins before form dipped on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him while the jockey's modest 4% strike rate from 26 rides at Nottingham is another negative. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 14 runs and their partnership reads 8/25 with an A/E of 1.93. With a run-style that sees him tend to make the running or race on the pace, he is one of those likely to contribute to the strong gallop. He has a record of 1 win from 3 starts on good ground with two places and arrives off an official rating of 82 with recent form figures of 3-1175.
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6Kaindy58/100
Kaindy has shown fair form overall and has been placed in both starts at this trip. The yard posts a solid 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample while the jockey is operating above expectations here too. With only five career runs the exact going preference remains unclear and he is held up with high confidence.
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7The Sweet Escape54/100
The Sweet Escape is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after winning two of her last four starts. She has already won over this trip and at this track from just two visits, while both trainer and jockey have above-average strike rates here. The ground looks fine on her record though she is not prolific on it and she is held up.
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8Rogue Defence53/100
Rogue Defence is a fair performer who has won two of his four starts at this trip. Recent form of 15143 shows clear ability mixed with the odd poor run and he now carries a career-high mark. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Nottingham while the draw in stall 10 adds another question and he is held up.
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9Itsatenfromlen51/100
Itsatenfromlen is a fair performer who has been out of form since winning a 7f handicap at Redcar last summer and was well held on reappearance. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which looks a fresh question, while the yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. Silvestre De Sousa has a solid 16% record at the track but the horse has shown little on good ground in two previous attempts and is held up.
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10West Byfleet50/100
West Byfleet is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, finishing second and then fifth in similar company. He is proven at this trip without having won over it and holds a solid chance on his recent form. Trainer Jack Channon has a strong 23% strike rate at Nottingham while jockey Rob Hornby adds a reliable 15% record here and he steps up in class.
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11Phantom Watch45/100
Phantom Watch is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning often. Placed on his only run here and has a solid record on good ground with a win at today's trip. Trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at Nottingham and he is held up with high confidence.
KTB verdict
Caim is the KTB Selection. He brings solid placed form at the trip, the benefit of first-time headgear, and the assistance of a yard and jockey who both operate above average at Nottingham. The strongly-run race should suit his held-up style, allowing him to capitalise if the leaders fold late. His main dangers are Revelance, who could make the running and has strong Nottingham figures for both trainer and jockey, and Empire of Light, who is also held up and drops in trip and class after a recent lull. We Dare To Dream and Eagle Bay add further depth to what looks a typically competitive Nottingham handicap.
KTB Selection Caim
This is the narrative read of the 3:43 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Revelance and Eagle Bay are the two habitual front-runners expected to make the running or race prominently.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses who can produce their effort in the closing stages.
What is the course record for The Sweet Escape?
The Sweet Escape has won here from two visits.
Which jockey has the best Nottingham strike rate among the principals?
James Doyle has a 21% strike rate at Nottingham from 332 rides.
Has any horse in the field won over the exact course and distance?
The Sweet Escape has won over this trip at this track.
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