2:37 Fontwell
This Class 4 novices' hurdle at Fontwell over 2m1f162y features a field of 12 with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 56 and 42. The KTB numbers point to a race where experience is limited across the board and several runners arrive with questions to answer regarding trip, ground and overall ability. The lone-leader pace shape suggests an uncontested lead could prove decisive in a contest where many are held up and unproven at the trip.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape in operation, one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little to no pressure. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be produced late, meaning the key question is whether any of them can close the gap on an uncontested leader over this distance. The shape therefore favours the one who can get an easy time on the front end while asking the closers to find extra in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Snow Is In The Sky KTB Selection56/100
Snow Is In The Sky has shown little so far with a recent form line of P179-P and only three career runs in the last year. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse whose ability remains hard to gauge from such a small sample. Trainer Gary Brown has a solid 14% strike rate from 80 runs at Fontwell while jockey Richie McLernon sits on an 11% strike rate from 210 rides here. Usually held up and producing its effort late, though that read comes with low confidence. Unproven on the ground and with no course form on record, the 5-year-old is very much an unknown quantity at this stage. The KTB Fit Score of 56 nevertheless makes this the top-rated in the race.
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2Down To Business54/100
Down To Business is a smart performer who showed his ability with a win last time after two placed efforts and arrives with an official rating of 114. Dropping in class is a positive but the drop back in trip today asks a fresh question while he remains unproven on this ground. Trainer Dan Skelton and jockey Harry Skelton both have solid records at Fontwell with respective strike rates of 19% and 24%. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence in that assessment. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 345-10 and could be suited by the way this race is likely to be run given the lone leader up front.
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3Moscow Star54/100
Moscow Star has shown modest form at best so far with a string of unplaced efforts including a poor run here last time. The yard holds a solid 23% strike rate at Fontwell yet the horse remains lightly raced with only four starts and a small sample on this ground. Trip and track experience both bring more questions than answers at this stage. Usually held up and producing its effort late with medium confidence. Recent form figures read 554-0 and the 4-year-old finished tenth on its only previous visit to Fontwell, offering little encouragement.
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4Tipu Sultan53/100
Tipu Sultan has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions before a modest second on hurdling debut last time. The yard has no recorded runners at Fontwell while the jockey operates with a solid 16% strike rate from 135 rides here. With only a small sample of form and no useful going or course data available, he remains hard to assess. Typically settles in midfield though that read is based on limited evidence with low confidence. Recent form figures of 77P4-2 and a KTB Fit Score of 53 leave him towards the lower end of the principals.
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5Jaycee Reidy51/100
Jaycee Reidy is a half-brother to useful hurdler Luccia and related to several other winners. Chris Gordon and Tom Cannon both operate at a solid 14% strike-rate here at Fontwell. With no racecourse form to go on the debutant has to be judged purely on pedigree and yard record. Recent form figures read F/1- and the 5-year-old has a KTB Fit Score of 51. The trainer's 14% strike rate from 887 runs at the track and the jockey's matching 14% from 732 rides provide the main positives in the absence of any hurdling experience.
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6Lakeview Lass51/100
Lakeview Lass has shown very little in four starts to date and remains hard to fancy on what she has produced. The step up in trip is an unknown that could suit or could expose her further. Trainer Jeremy Scott has a solid 16% strike rate at Fontwell while jockey Lorcan Williams is operating at 26% here.
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7Anniversary49/100
Anniversary steps up in trip today having last run over 1m6f and that distance increase poses a fresh question. The yard holds a solid 17% strike rate at Fontwell from 29 runs while Ben Jones has a 14% record from 97 rides here. With only 11 career starts and no experience of this ground the 4-year-old remains not fully exposed and is the sole front-runner in the field.
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8Thepassingcyclone46/100
Thepassingcyclone has shown only modest form in four runs and failed to complete when tried here over hurdles last time. He now steps up markedly in trip which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate at Fontwell while the jockey has a solid 17% record at the track.
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9Days Of Joy45/100
Days Of Joy is a debutant with limited racecourse evidence to go on. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Fontwell from a large sample and the pedigree will need to supply the ability. Harriet Tucker is still seeking her first winner at the track from 25 rides.
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10Eben Zaabeel45/100
Eben Zaabeel is lightly raced for his age and has already shown he can win at this trip. He arrives with modest recent form and is unproven on the ground here. The trainer has too small a sample at Fontwell to read much into while the jockey operates at a solid 19% strike rate at the track.
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11Aquaman44/100
Aquaman has only three career runs and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m4½f, so this is very much an unknown quantity. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at Fontwell from 65 runs offers little encouragement, while Harry Bannister's 12% record from 142 rides here is similarly uninspiring. With such a light profile the form is impossible to weigh up with any confidence.
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12Alfred Spero42/100
Alfred Spero steps up markedly in trip today having raced no further than 1m3f in nine starts, so this 2m1f test is an unknown. The yard has a poor 0% strike rate from 54 runs at Fontwell while the 3lb claimer has a solid 12% record from 74 rides here. First-time headgear is applied on ground he has never encountered.
KTB verdict
Snow Is In The Sky is the KTB Selection. While its ability remains hard to gauge from a small sample and the step up in trip poses a fresh question, it tops the KTB Fit Scores at 56 and benefits from a trainer with a solid record at Fontwell. The race looks likely to be run to suit held-up types if the lone leader gets an easy time out front. The main dangers are Down To Business, who showed smart form last time and drops in class, and Moscow Star, who brings course experience despite modest form overall.
KTB Selection Snow Is In The Sky
This is the narrative read of the 2:37 Fontwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Fontwell racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Fontwell results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Anniversary is the sole front-runner with high-confidence run-style data and is likely to make the running given the lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Three of the top five principals – Snow Is In The Sky, Down To Business and Moscow Star – are described as usually held up.
Which runner has course experience at Fontwell?
Moscow Star has one previous run here when finishing 10th while Thepassingcyclone has one run here when failing to complete.
Who applies first-time headgear in the race?
Alfred Spero is the only horse fitted with first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Fontwell among those riding?
Lorcan Williams has a 26% strike rate at Fontwell from 39 rides, the highest of any jockey in the field.
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