5:05 Killarney
The 5:05 at Killarney is a 15-runner handicap steeplechase over 2m7f100y on good ground. A competitive field mixes fair handicappers with useful performers, several of whom are dropping back in trip from three miles plus while others step up markedly in distance. KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Cullenwaine and Nolans Rocco both on 67, underlining that this looks an open race where course records, trainer form at the track and the ability to handle an uncontested lead will matter.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Most of the field, including the top principals after the first, are held-up types who will be producing their efforts late. The key question is whether any runner can get close enough to the clear leader in the straight or whether the uncontested advantage will be decisive on this good surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cullenwaine67/100
Cullenwaine is a fair handicapper with a solid course record at Killarney where he has won once from five starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over three miles one furlong and has won at this distance in the past. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 1.94 from eight runs while the jockey posts a 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.52 from 24 rides. He has shown mixed form on good ground with two wins from nineteen runs. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to track the clear leader before delivering his effort.
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2Nolans Rocco KTB Selection67/100
Nolans Rocco is a useful performer who has won over today's trip and arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time. He steps up in distance on ground he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 1.48 from seven runs while the jockey matches that 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.98 from 22 rides. Their combined record together reads 4/15 with an A/E of 1.41 and positive LSP of +£6.25. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace to challenge the uncontested leader in the straight.
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3True Harmony58/100
True Harmony is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning. He drops back in trip today having last run over 3m1f and that distance change is an unknown. The trainer has a strong 40% strike rate at Killarney from five runs with an A/E of 7.18 while the jockey has a 16% strike rate and A/E of 1.21 from 117 rides. Their combined record together reads 7/66 with an A/E of 1.08 and positive LSP of +£9.75. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find a way to close on the clear leader from the rear.
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4Keep Em Quite54/100
Keep Em Quite is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form this season but failed to fire last time. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 0.72 from 68 runs while the jockey posts a 9% strike rate and A/E of 0.68 from 57 rides. Their combined record together reads 18/147 with an A/E of 0.95. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be among those trying to close late on the leader who is likely to have the race run to suit.
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5King Ferdinand53/100
King Ferdinand is a useful performer who has won at this track from four runs and also has a win at today's trip. Recent form is poor with four pulled-ups or tailed-off efforts from his last five starts and he now tries first-time headgear. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 0.93 from 260 runs while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. He has placed once from eleven runs on good ground without winning. Usually held up, he will need the headgear to spark a revival if he is to close effectively on the uncontested leader.
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6Ellens Pride51/100
Ellens Pride is a fair performer who has shown ordinary form of late and was well held when fifth on her only previous visit to this track. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 1.42 from 48 runs but the jockey's 7% strike rate is modest. Stepping up in trip for the first time today while having no win or place from eight runs on good ground leaves her with questions to answer. Usually held up.
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7Zolpharine50/100
Zolpharine is a fair handicapper who has been placed on all four starts at Killarney without winning. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m1f, though he is proven at this sort of distance with four placed efforts from ten attempts. The trainer's 6% strike rate at the track is a negative while the jockey's 13% record here offers some compensation. He has two wins from fifteen runs on good ground.
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8Kilkee Bay50/100
Kilkee Bay is a useful performer who has shown enough at this trip to stay competitive. He has placed once from four runs at Killarney but his jumping record here is poor with two unseatings and a fall. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at the track while the jockey has a solid 11% record from limited rides. He has no win or place from seven runs on good ground.
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9Avec Espoir49/100
Avec Espoir is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is poor with a string of pulled-ups and he is now 13 years old. The trainer has a 6% strike rate here while the jockey is still seeking a first Killarney winner from 29 rides. He has one win from fourteen runs on good ground.
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10Barryroe Madam45/100
Barryroe Madam is a fair mare who has shown little spark in six runs this year and now steps up in trip. She has won over this distance in the past and has one win from four runs on good ground, but her recent form is modest at best. The trainer has a 10% strike-rate at Killarney from a decent-sized sample while the claiming jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Usually held up.
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11Kilashee44/100
Kilashee is a fair 11-year-old with a solid course record at Killarney where he has won once from four starts. He steps up in trip today having won twice from eight runs at this distance though his recent form of 7-PP7P is poor. The trainer's 6% strike rate from 160 runs here is a negative while the 7lb claimer has too few rides at the track to assess. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and has two wins from nine runs on good ground.
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12It's Time Again42/100
It's Time Again is a fair performer who has struggled this season with a string of poor efforts including two pulled up. He has shown he can handle this sort of trip with a placed effort and has two wins from thirteen runs on good ground. The jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track from a decent-sized sample while the yard's small number of runners here makes their record hard to read. Usually held up.
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13Backinabit40/100
Backinabit is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of a modest fifth last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while he makes his first start at Killarney. The trainer records a modest 8% strike-rate here from a large sample and the 3lb claimer has a solid 13% record at the track. Usually held up.
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14Joe's Turn37/100
Joe's Turn is a fair 10-year-old who has shown little spark this season with three modest efforts after a fall. He drops back in trip from 3m2f to a distance he has tried twice without placing and has never won or placed in four runs on good ground. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 25 runs at Killarney while the jockey manages only 5% from 94 rides here. Usually held up.
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15Urbs Intacta Manet35/100
Urbs Intacta Manet is a fair performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and now drops back in trip having last run over 3m1f. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 13 runs at Killarney while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from five rides here. He has three runs on good ground without a win or place. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Nolans Rocco is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has won over today's trip, he arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time and is backed by a trainer-jockey combination with a 27% strike rate together and positive figures at the track. The step up in distance on untried ground poses a question, yet his held-up style should suit a race run with a clear leader that may not be easy to peg back late. Cullenwaine looks the main danger on his course record and proven ability at the trip, while True Harmony, Keep Em Quite and King Ferdinand in first-time headgear cannot be entirely ruled out if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Nolans Rocco
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Killarney results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Killarney in the field?
True Harmony, whose trainer has a 40% strike rate at Killarney from five runs with an A/E of 7.18.
How many principals are dropping back in trip from around 3m1f?
Three: Cullenwaine, True Harmony and Keep Em Quite.
Which horse has the most placed efforts at Killarney without a win?
Zolpharine, who has been placed on all four starts at the track.
Who is the only front-running type in the race?
Kilashee, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time?
King Ferdinand.
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