Josh Williamson
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 100 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.07). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 22% (51 rides). Rides mostly for Gordon Elliott — 41% of rides in the window.
It is weakest at Punchestown (2.4% over 42 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 21.6% (n=51, Fair A/E 1.20), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.4% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.44). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 11.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.20 and +6.86 to a £1 stake over 340 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Gordon Elliott supplies 41% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.8%, A/E 0.90). The rider also reads well on Heavy going (17.1%, n=70). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 2.2% over 45 rides, 8.3pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Tattersalls Ireland George Mernagh Memorial Sales Bumper at Fairyhouse (Apr 2025, £59,000).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2022→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 495 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 495 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 December 2022 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Josh Williamson's strike rate?
- Josh Williamson has won 52 of 495 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Josh Williamson do best at?
- Fairyhouse by strike rate: 5 wins from 32 rides (15.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Josh Williamson ride most for?
- Gordon Elliott, with 203 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (11.8%).
- Is Josh Williamson in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 11 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Josh Williamson's Fair A/E?
- 1.07, from 495 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.