4:15 Navan
The 4:15 at Navan is an Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap over 1m40y on yielding ground, featuring a field of nine where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 55 and 37. Pink Oxalis tops the KTB Fit order at 55/100 as the selection, narrowly ahead of Sanctijude on 54, with Expert Dancer and Lady In Gold both on 52. The race lacks an obvious leader and is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead, the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest where prominent or midfield positioning should pay. Every horse in the field is rated as a hold-up type who produces effort late, so the key question is which of these closers can time their run best off a modest gallop and pick up the pieces in the straight. The draw may matter less than the ability to quicken off a steady tempo on this yielding surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Pink Oxalis KTB Selection55/100
Pink Oxalis is a fair handicapper who has won four times at this trip from 16 attempts and arrives in reasonable form with a string of mid-division finishes. He has never run at Navan before and is 0-3 on yielding ground so far. Trainer Stephen Thorne has yet to strike at the track from six runners while jockey Reese Holohan has a solid 11% strike rate here from 19 rides. The five-year-old is held up and usually produces its effort late. Rated OR 86 and drawn in stall 8, recent form figures read 562566.
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2Sanctijude54/100
Sanctijude is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after mixing form between 1m and 1m1f this year. The three-year-old drops back to a trip he has won over before but has never raced on yielding ground and makes his first start at Navan. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at the track, with W. McCreery on 9% strike rate and Declan McDonogh on 10%. Usually held up and producing effort late, the horse carries an OR of 83 from draw 3 with recent form figures of 341741.
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3Expert Dancer52/100
Expert Dancer is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year with two wins in the last five starts. He steps up in trip today having been beaten on his only previous run at a mile and the small sample on yielding ground leaves suitability unknown after being placed twice from three runs. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Navan, with A. Slattery on 7% and Andrew Slattery on 5%. A hold-up performer who usually produces effort late, he is rated OR 83 from draw 5 with recent form figures of -33712.
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4Lady In Gold52/100
Lady In Gold is a fair performer who made a winning start over this trip on her second run. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while Sheridan is operating at 7% here. Lightly raced with only two career starts so far and the going remains an unknown. Usually held up and producing effort late, the three-year-old is rated OR 79 from draw 9 with recent form figures of 81.
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5Thrifty Of Digby51/100
Thrifty Of Digby is a fair performer who has placed on both starts at Navan and handles yielding ground well with a win and two placings from three runs. He has scored twice at this trip and arrives in reasonable form after a solid third last time. Trainer has an 11% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 5%. Usually held up, rated OR 78 from draw 7 with recent form figures of 11P320.
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6Red Autumn48/100
Red Autumn is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year without progressing beyond mid-division in three runs. He has won at today's trip from three attempts and is well drawn in stall 2, but he has never run on yielding ground and makes his first appearance at Navan. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 817 runs while the jockey is on 7% from 746 rides. Usually held up, rated OR 75 with recent form figures of 25-447.
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7Divine Legend48/100
Divine Legend is a fair performer who has improved with every run and arrives in top form after two straight wins. Placed on his only visit to Navan and steps up in trip today having already shown he handles a mile. Trainer strikes at 12% here while jockey is 9% from plenty of rides. Usually held up, rated OR 78 from draw 6 with recent form figures of -74221.
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8Bang Bang43/100
Bang Bang is a modest performer who has been placed twice on turf this year but has finished down the field on his last two starts. Drops back to 1m today having been placed at the trip earlier in the season. Trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while the jockey operates at 5% here. Usually held up, rated OR 68 from draw 4 with recent form figures of -22949.
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9Thru And Thru37/100
Thru And Thru is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts after an early-season placed run. Steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having been placed once at the trip from two attempts, though he has shown little on yielding ground in two starts. Trainer has only three runs at Navan so far while the jockey maintains a solid 8% strike rate from 40 rides here. Usually held up, rated OR 63 from draw 1 with recent form figures of 306003.
KTB verdict
Pink Oxalis is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with four wins at this trip, the selection arrives in reasonable form with a string of mid-division finishes and is expected to come into the race late off what is likely to be a steady pace. The lack of any obvious front-runner makes the race tactical, and the ability to quicken off a modest gallop on yielding ground will be key. Sanctijude, Expert Dancer and Lady In Gold head the dangers in a race where several hold-up performers could be involved at the finish.
KTB Selection Pink Oxalis
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Pink Oxalis the KTB Selection despite having no course or yielding-ground form?
Pink Oxalis is a fair handicapper who has won four times at this trip from 16 attempts and arrives in reasonable form with a string of mid-division finishes, outweighing the lack of Navan experience and 0-3 record on yielding.
How does the race's pace shape affect the hold-up runners?
The pace shape lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, so hold-up types will need to time their late efforts carefully.
Which horse has the best recent form at Navan?
Divine Legend has been placed on his only visit to Navan while Thrifty Of Digby has placed on both starts here.
What is the trainer and jockey combination record for the top two in the KTB Fit order?
For Sanctijude, W. McCreery and Declan McDonogh show 6/147 (4%) with A/E 0.46 and -£106.25 LSP.
Which lightly-raced horse is stepping up in trip with an unknown going factor?
Lady In Gold is lightly raced with only two career starts so far, made a winning start over this trip on her second run, and has no runs on yielding ground.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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