3:45 Navan
This 1m40y maiden at Navan on yielding ground brings together an eleven-strong field of largely unexposed two-year-olds, with the majority either making their debut or having only one or two previous runs. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched across the principals, reflecting modest levels of confidence in what is essentially an open and informative contest. With no obvious front-runner in the pace shape, the race is expected to develop into a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. Several runners, including Aachen, Jesus Green, Selosse and Professor Finnegan, are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, while Soldat typically settles in midfield. The key question is whether those who can secure a forward position early will hold an advantage over the closers in what is likely to be a bunched field turning in.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1The Boogeyman KTB Selection54/100
The Boogeyman is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from 16 runs while the jockey's 7% from 181 rides is more modest. With low data confidence any assessment relies mainly on pedigree and sales background which is not supplied here. He lines up from draw 9 in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair. As the KTB Selection he is taken to make a winning start in a race that lacks depth among the principals.
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2Aachen51/100
Aachen showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and returns quickly for a top yard with a strong 23% strike rate at Navan from more than a thousand runs. The 5lb claimer has a solid 9% record here from 56 rides. With only one run on the board the colt remains largely unexposed though the small sample means any firm conclusions would be premature. He is drawn in stall 1, which could prove useful in a tactical race, and is noted as usually held up. Unproven on yielding ground adds a slight question mark but the yard's record at the venue remains a significant plus.
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3Choctaw Nation49/100
Choctaw Nation is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard. The trainer holds a strong 23% strike rate at Navan from over a thousand runs. W M Lordan has an 8% strike rate at the track from 653 rides. By Sea The Stars, he has a 15% overall win rate attached to his sire. Drawn in stall 8, he lines up in a steadily-run contest where being handy could pay. With no public form the assessment is necessarily tentative, yet the yard's dominance at this venue commands respect.
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4Magna Cum Laude48/100
Magna Cum Laude has only one run behind him and that came over today's trip without success. The yard's strong 23% strike rate from over a thousand runs at Navan is a clear positive while the jockey's 10% record from 717 rides here is more modest. With such a small sample everything else remains unknown. Unproven on yielding ground, he will need to improve on that initial effort. Drawn in stall 4, he could be suited by a tactical race although the limited evidence makes it hard to gauge his exact prospects.
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5Eagle Of Tyrone48/100
Eagle Of Tyrone is a debutant with limited public information available. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 346 runs at Navan while Chris Hayes posts a 7% strike rate from 746 rides here. With data confidence low the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background which offer no strong pointers either way. Drawn in stall 6, he enters a steadily-run maiden where run-style may prove important. The lack of concrete form leaves his chance difficult to quantify with any real certainty.
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6Jesus Green45/100
Jesus Green has been placed twice in as many starts and has already shown he handles this trip, dropping back from 1m1f in what looks a sensible move after his placed effort over a mile on debut. The trainer has a solid 12% strike-rate at Navan from a big sample but the jockey is operating at a lower 7%. Usually held up, he is unproven on yielding ground.
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7Soldat44/100
Soldat showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over 7f and now steps up to 1m for the first time, a trip that remains an unknown at this stage. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 671 runs at Navan while jockey G F Carroll sits on a 6% record from 458 rides here. He typically settles in midfield and has one run on yielding with no win or place.
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8Blue Glory44/100
Blue Glory is a debutant so the form book offers nothing concrete, with sales and pedigree details sparse which keeps the assessment firmly tentative given the low data confidence. The trainer has yet to strike at Navan from a dozen attempts while Leigh Roche has a modest but established 7% strike rate here from plenty of rides.
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9Paythebelievers44/100
Paythebelievers is a newcomer from the Murtagh yard. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a large sample while jockey Ben Coen has a 9% record at the track. With no racecourse form available the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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10Selosse44/100
Selosse showed some promise when fifth on debut over 7f and now steps up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has an 11 percent strike rate from 1027 runs at Navan while the jockey is operating at 5 percent from 61 rides here. Usually held up, he is unproven on yielding ground.
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11Professor Finnegan43/100
Professor Finnegan has only one run behind him so the form is difficult to weigh up with any confidence. The yard posts a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while Heffernan is similarly established at 10% from 680 rides here. Usually held up, he has one run on yielding with no win or place and the trip looks no worse than an open question.
KTB verdict
The Boogeyman is the KTB Selection in a maiden that looks modest on paper and lacks established form. As a newcomer from a yard with a solid 13% strike rate at Navan, he is taken to make a winning debut in what is likely to prove a steadily-run, tactical affair. His main dangers are headed by Aachen, who showed fair promise on debut and represents a yard with a very strong record at the venue, along with the other Aidan O'Brien runners Choctaw Nation and Magna Cum Laude who bring similar yard positives despite limited racecourse evidence.
KTB Selection The Boogeyman
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is The Boogeyman rated the KTB Selection despite having no racecourse experience?
The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from 16 runs while the overall KTB Fit scores are modest and tightly bunched, with low data confidence across the field making pedigree and sales background the main factors even if not supplied here.
How does the race's pace shape influence the principals?
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, which may suit forward runners more than the held-up types such as Aachen, Jesus Green, Selosse and Professor Finnegan.
Which runners are unproven on yielding ground?
Aachen, Magna Cum Laude, Jesus Green and Selosse have no runs on yielding and are therefore unproven on the ground, while Soldat and Professor Finnegan have one run each on the surface with no win or place.
What is Aidan O'Brien's record at Navan in this race type?
Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1031 runs, which applies to Choctaw Nation, Aachen and Magna Cum Laude.
Which horse has the most racecourse experience in the field?
Jesus Green with recent form figures of 22, having been placed twice and shown he handles this trip after racing over 1m1f last time.
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