5:45 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 maiden fillies' stakes over a mile at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of nine, several of whom are lightly raced or making their first appearances. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but open-looking heat, with the top four separated by just twelve points and plenty of unknowns around trip, surface and ability on debut. Foxy Night tops the KTB numbers on the back of consistent placed form and now tries first-time headgear in a race that lacks an obvious pace influence.
How the race shapes up
With no horse obviously wanting the lead the pace shape is expected to be steady and tactical, placing an emphasis on being handy or timing a run from just off the speed. Several principals, including the selection, are noted as held-up types, which could make the late stages tight if the race is run at a crawl early on. The key question is which of these fillies will handle the step up to a mile most effectively while adapting to the surface and the likely steady tempo.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Foxy Night KTB Selection59/100
Foxy Night is a fair 3 year old who has been consistent without winning, placing in four of her last six starts including a placed effort over today's trip. She showed nothing special when fourth on her only previous run here and now tries headgear for the first time after dropping back to a Class 4. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate from a big sample at Kempton. Billy Loughnane takes the ride with the trainer and jockey combination showing an 8/35 (23%) record and A/E 1.12. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the steadily-run race to unfold favourably from draw 6. With an official rating of 78 she brings the highest form in the field on paper.
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2Kernow Rose51/100
Kernow Rose is lightly raced with just one run to her name so the form picture remains thin. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Kempton from seven runs. She steps up from 7f to an untried 1m today which asks a fresh question of her stamina. Rob Hornby is in the saddle for a trainer and jockey combination that has struck at a 1/5 (20%) rate. Unproven on standard to slow ground and with no course form, she represents an unknown quantity but one that connections clearly think can progress. Her draw in 3 could prove handy in a tactical affair.
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3Wadooda48/100
Wadooda showed promise when second on debut over 7f and now steps up to 1m for the first time. That leaves a clear question mark over whether the extra furlong will suit. The Owen Burrows yard has a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 141 runs while Callum Rodriguez is aboard for a trainer and jockey record of 23/91 (25%) with a positive A/E of 1.15. Usually held up with limited evidence, she will look to produce her effort late in what is likely to be a steadily-run race. Dropping in class, she brings one of the more interesting profiles among the less-exposed runners.
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4All Shall Be Well47/100
All Shall Be Well showed promise when third on debut over 7f and backed that up with a solid second last time. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which looks a logical move though he has already tried the trip once without success. Jack Jones has a modest 9% strike rate here from 58 runs while Rossa Ryan takes the mount for a trainer and jockey record of 4/26 (15%). Usually held up with limited evidence, she will be looking to time her run in a race that could lack early pace. With recent form figures of 32 she is one of the more proven performers on offer.
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5Nervousdisposition47/100
Nervousdisposition is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and only low-confidence data to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the main clues here while connections have a modest 7% strike rate from a large sample at Kempton. Whether the trip and surface suit on debut remains an open question.
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6Wosta46/100
Wosta is a newcomer from the Gosden yard which has a solid 21% strike rate at this track from a big sample. The horse cost 75,000 gns as a yearling and is a half-brother to a couple of winners, though the immediate family has produced mostly sprinters rather than milers. With a low data confidence on debut and an untried trip, it is impossible to gauge his true level until he runs.
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7Fan Me45/100
Fan Me showed promise when second on his return from a break at this trip last time having been well held on debut. Lightly raced with only three career runs he remains open to improvement but the small sample means his level is hard to pin down. Haggas has an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 767 runs while Fallon takes the ride.
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8Espressona Signora39/100
Espressona Signora is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and the low data confidence means any read on her ability remains tentative. Trainer Gihan Arnolda has only one run at Kempton so far while Laura Pearson has no recorded rides at the track.
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9Bel Air Flyer37/100
Limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date. Drops back to an untried 1m today with first-time headgear and from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate at Kempton. Nicola Currie has a 7% record at the track from 85 rides.
KTB verdict
Foxy Night stands out as the KTB Selection. She is a fair and consistent 3 year old who has placed over today's trip, brings the highest official rating in the race, and now tries first-time headgear in a drop to Class 4 while representing a yard with a solid record at the venue. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the race should suit her held-up style if she can time her effort right from a favourable draw. Her main dangers are likely to come from the less-exposed trio of Kernow Rose, Wadooda and All Shall Be Well, all of whom bring promise but also plenty of question marks over trip, ground and overall level.
KTB Selection Foxy Night
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear significant for Foxy Night?
Foxy Night is a fair 3 year old who has been consistent without winning and now tries headgear for the first time after dropping back to a Class 4.
How does the lack of an obvious leader affect race tactics?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, making it likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runners are stepping up to 1m for the first time?
Kernow Rose, Wadooda and All Shall Be Well are all stepping up to 1m for the first time, each with a question mark over whether the extra furlong will suit.
What does the trainer record tell us about the Gosden newcomer?
Wosta is a newcomer from the John & Thady Gosden yard which has a solid 21% strike rate at Kempton from 383 runs.
Who brings the most placed form into the race?
Foxy Night with recent form figures of 332337, placing in four of her last six starts including over today's trip.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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