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Trainer profile

Pat Phelan

524 runners in the last 5 seasons · 58 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
40–524
Wins / Runs
7.6%
Strike rate
n=524
118 (23%)
Placed
0.96
Fair A/E
n=522 · 0.81 incl. margin
−69.77
£1 level stake
n=524 at SP · −13.3%
£353k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 100 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). With a claiming rider up the record reads 10% (164 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 524 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Paddy Bradley: 9.7% from 238 Claiming riders: 10.4%
The read

The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (11.7%, n=180), clear of the yard's 7.6% baseline. Paddy Bradley rides 45% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9.7% vs 7.6%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 1.9% over 54 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.46 across 73 runners (2.7% strike, −64.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Win A Football Fortune With Scoop6soccer Handicap at Epsom Downs (Sep 2015, £12,450). The stable star of the record: Epsom Faithfull (GB) — 11 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.2%−2.4
n=96 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −16.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.6
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.6
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −27.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.1%−0.5
n=14 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5.3%−2.3
n=19 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −14.67
When favourite
20%
n=25 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −10.09
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.4%+2.8
n=164 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −27.34
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 15.8% vs 7.6% · n=95
In Hurdle races 1.9% vs 7.6% · n=54
At Lingfield (AW) 11.7% vs 7.6% · n=180
Off a 61-180-day break 2.7% vs 7.6% · n=73
On Good to Soft going 2.5% vs 7.6% · n=40
With horses switching code 2.5% vs 7.6% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 464 39 8.4% −35.77
Hurdle 54 1 1.9% −28.00
NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 317 30 9.5% +11.65
Good 71 4 5.6% −48.17
Good to Firm 55 4 7.3% −4.25
Good to Soft 40 1 2.5% −14.00
Soft 27 1 3.7% −1.00
Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW) 180 21 11.7% +48.07
Kempton (AW) 123 8 6.5% −25.17
Windsor 43 4 9.3% +2.75
Epsom 31 1 3.2% −8.00
Brighton 29 0 0% −29.00
Lingfield 23 2 8.7% −13.50
Plumpton 21 1 4.8% +5.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 14 1 7.1% −11.25
Fontwell 12 0 0% −12.00
Newbury 8 0 0% −8.00
Sandown 8 0 0% −8.00
Kempton 7 0 0% −7.00
Huntingdon 6 0 0% −6.00
Goodwood 5 0 0% −5.00
Bath 3 1 33.3% +1.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 282 24 8.5% −94.85
Class 5 138 8 5.8% −64.75
Class 4 85 5 5.9% +82.50
Class 3 13 3 23.1% +13.33
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 37 6 16.2% 0.61 −18.84
2nd–3rd fav 87 15 17.2% 1.00 +5.07
4th–6th fav 154 13 8.4% 1.17 −28.00
7th+ in betting 246 6 2.4% 1.06 −28.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Naasma (IRE)from Kevin Ryan 34 6 17 12 Oct 26
Dotties Star (GB) 31 2 7 19 Oct 26
Epsom Faithfull (GB) 29 7 11 16 Feb 25
Devizes (IRE) 28 3 8 4 Aug 25
Charles Morin (GB)from H-F Devin · then Barry Murphy 26 2 6 3 Sep 26
Dubai Harbour (GB)from James Tate 25 2 7 11 Aug 26
Star Of Epsom (GB) 23 4 9 20 Sep 24
Celtic John (IRE) 22 1 5 7 Oct 26
Iconic Mover (GB) 22 0 5 18 Jun 24
The Game Is Up (GB) 22 1 2 28 May 24
Qeyaady (GB)from Simon Dow 18 0 1 2 May 24
No Turning Back (GB) 15 0 4 9 May 24
All 58 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 58 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Roger Varian (2) and Simon Dow (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard, most often for Barry Murphy (2); 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
81212112123654148
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPaddy Bradley
45% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 1.03
RiderRWSR£1
Paddy Bradley 238 23 9.7% +61.08
Rhys Clutterbuck 70 7 10% −17.17
J F Egan 30 2 6.7% +3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
204
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£1.30m
Prize money
2012
Best season · 19 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Quest For Wonder (GB) — Win A Football Fortune With Scoop6soccer Handicap Epsom Downs · Sep 2015 · Class 3
£12,450
Dani's Girl (IRE) — Williamhill.com Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Ascot · Oct 2009 · Listed
£12,393
Epsom Faithfull (GB) — Alvarium Handicap Ascot · Jul 2022 · Class 3
£10,800
Notable horses
Epsom Faithfull (GB) Epsom Salts (GB) Devizes (IRE) Young Dottie (GB) Green Earth (IRE) Naasma (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Churchill (IRE) 13% · 9–69
Progeny have won 11% of 4,781 runs since 2008 (458 horses).
Sir Percy (GB) 12.2% · 5–41
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,148 runs since 2008 (473 horses).
Sea The Moon (GER) 5.3% · 2–38
Progeny have won 12.1% of 4,538 runs since 2008 (500 horses).
Buratino (IRE) 3.4% · 1–29
Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,878 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118.
Coach House (IRE) 24.1% · 7–29
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,476 runs since 2008 (145 horses).
Dubawi (IRE) 10.7% · 3–28
Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,933 runs since 2008 (1,520 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,738 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,738 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 December 2006 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Plumpton Dotties Star (GB)J: Sean Houlihan SIS Handicap Hurdle Race (For The Josh Gifford Memorial Trophy)Class 5 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 18/1
15 Oct 26 Brighton Private Project (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 7th 10/1
15 Oct 26 Brighton Shifra (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 3/1
12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Naasma (IRE)J: Sean Levey Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)Class 6 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 9/2
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Freda (IRE)J: Sean Levey Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 9th 22/1
07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Celtic John (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 3rd 8/1
07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 10th 28/1
06 Oct 26 Huntingdon James Dean (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse In 2026/2027 "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 50/1
06 Oct 26 Brighton Private Project (IRE)J: Isobelle Chalmers Matchbook Signup - Get 20% Back On Losses Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Hands And Heels Race) (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)Class 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 3rd 4/1J
30 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Amber Honey (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 9th 9/2
23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Sir Patchy (GB)J: Olivia Haines Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier)Class 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 12th 33/1
23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)J: Sean Levey Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 4th 12/1
23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Freda (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Racing Tv Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 5th 7/2
14 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Celtic John (IRE)J: Finlay Bassett Bet @racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 2nd 11/1
13 Sep 26 Bath Shifra (IRE)J: Seamus Cronin Royal Bath & West Society Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 1st 100/30F
12 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Amber Honey (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Happy 60th Jacqueline Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 15/2
10 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Private Project (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 3/1
09 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 11th 50/1
09 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Freda (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 4th 22/1
04 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Naasma (IRE)J: Sean Levey Industry Leading In-play Markets At Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 6th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Pat Phelan's strike rate?
Pat Phelan has won 40 of 524 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Pat Phelan do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 21 wins from 180 runners (11.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Pat Phelan?
Paddy Bradley, with 238 runners since 2022 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (9.7%).
Is Pat Phelan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Pat Phelan's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 522 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).