3:02 Redcar
This Class 6 nursery handicap over 5f at Redcar on good ground features a field of nine two-year-olds, most of them modest performers who have yet to break their maiden. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top end, with Lion of Persia heading the numbers on 55, followed by Mubehir and Cavan Lady on 48 and Dadawada on 47. Dropping in class is a theme for several runners, though the majority remain unproven on the surface and without course form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Luna Lacy is the only horse with a front-running profile and is likely to take up that role from stall two. The remainder of the field, including the top four in the KTB rankings, are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of them can close the gap on an unchallenged leader over this minimum trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lion of Persia KTB Selection55/100
Lion of Persia is a modest two-year-old who has shown some ability in three runs, finishing a close second on his most recent start over this trip. Stall one could be an advantage at Redcar but he still has to improve to win a race of this standard. The Robert Cowell yard has a 12% strike rate from 75 runs at the track, while George Wood brings a 30% strike rate at Redcar from a small sample. He is dropping in class, though he remains unproven on good ground and has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find extra if the uncontested leader is allowed an easy time of it.
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2Mubehir48/100
Mubehir is a modest two-year-old who has shown just fair form at best, with a placed effort at this trip his strongest piece of work. Dropping back from 6f should suit and he has already run once at Redcar, though he could only finish fifth that day. Trainer Paul Midgley operates at an 8% strike rate here from a large sample of 502 runs, while jockey Paul Mulrennan is similarly experienced at the track with a 9% strike rate. He is dropping in class from an OR of 64 and has two runs on good ground without placing. Usually held up, he will be among those trying to come from off the pace against the likely lone leader.
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3Cavan Lady48/100
Cavan Lady is a modest filly who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. Stall three looks fine and she has some course connections in her favour, though the yard is currently 0% from five runs at Redcar. Going suitability remains unknown on the basis of only four career starts. Jockey Cieren Fallon has a 20% strike rate at the track from 69 rides. Like most of her rivals she is held up and will need to produce her effort late, raising the question of whether she can bridge the gap to an uncontested leader over 5f.
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4Dadawada47/100
Dadawada is a limited performer who has shown little since a respectable debut fifth at this track. He drops back to 5f having failed to trouble the judge in three previous runs at the trip and his latest efforts suggest he is struggling to cope even at this modest level. The Christopher Kellett yard has a solid recent record at Redcar with an 8% strike rate and A/E of 1.37 from 25 runs, though apprentice Ryan Kavanagh is 0-1 at the venue. He has two runs on good ground without placing and will be held up in the race.
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5Johns Power46/100
Johns Power is a limited horse who has shown no real spark in seven starts and looks up against it again from stall 9. Dropping back to 5f poses a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at the distance. Roger Fell has a solid 14% strike-rate at Redcar while Joanna Mason is 0-8 at the track.
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6Classyfied45/100
Classyfied is a modest 2-year-old who has shown ordinary form across five runs, most recently finishing well beaten in a 6f nursery. Dropping back to 5f poses a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at the distance. Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate from 2372 runs at Redcar while Duran Fentiman is aboard.
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7Luna Lacy39/100
Luna Lacy has shown modest form in three starts, finishing no better than sixth, and carries the limited label for a Class 6. She now drops back to an untried 5f which asks a fresh question. The yard's modest record at Redcar offers little encouragement. She is the sole front-runner in the field and is likely to take the uncontested lead.
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8Redrosecastana39/100
Redrosecastana is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts to date. She drops back to 5f today having failed to trouble the judge when tried at the trip on debut. Trainer Christopher Kellett has an 8% strike rate from 25 runs at Redcar.
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9Mr de Maggs30/100
Mr de Maggs has shown very little in three runs to date and carries the limited tag for a reason. First-time headgear is now fitted in a race where he steps back to 5f having failed to make an impact at the trip before. Trainer has only one run at Redcar so the small-sample warning applies all round here.
KTB verdict
Lion of Persia is the KTB Selection. He has shown the most encouragement of these with a close second over the trip last time out, and the Robert Cowell stable's 12% strike rate at Redcar combined with George Wood's strong 30% record at the track provide positive pointers. Stall one may also prove an advantage on this course. The main dangers are likely to come from Mubehir, who should appreciate the return to 5f, and the consistent Cavan Lady, though both will need to overcome the held-up run style against a probable clear leader. Dadawada is the other principal but has shown little since his debut fifth here.
KTB Selection Lion of Persia
This is the narrative read of the 3:02 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Luna Lacy is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to take the uncontested lead given the lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are dropping in class?
Three of the four principals — Lion of Persia, Mubehir and Dadawada — are dropping in class.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Redcar among those riding in this race?
George Wood has a 30% strike rate at Redcar from 20 rides.
How many runners in the full field have previous course form at Redcar?
Only Mubehir has run at the course before, finishing fifth.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Mr de Maggs is fitted with first-time headgear.
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