2:20 Stratford

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Forthfactor KTB Selection67/100

   Form 1/151- · Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton

   Forthfactor arrives with the strongest KTB Fit score of 67 and is the clear selection. He has won both starts at this trip, including a useful bumper success on soft ground last spring, and now drops back from 2m1f having been off since May. Fitness is therefore a question mark, yet the yard’s 23% strike rate at Stratford from 373 runs and Harry Skelton’s 24% record from 313 rides here provide significant confidence. The jockey and trainer combination carries a 22% strike rate overall. He has shown he handles soft ground with one win from two starts, and although he has no course form on record the drop in class looks suitable for this muddling, tactical affair where his ability to settle in mid-division should serve him well.

2. 2Emerald Tir59/100

   Form 43 · Ryan Hatch · Tom Bellamy

   Family: the dam has had 3 other runners, none of them a winner.

   Emerald Tir is rated second on KTB Fit with 59 and brings fair form from two starts, having finished third and fourth while being placed once at today’s trip. He is likely to race prominently, which could be an advantage in a race lacking an obvious front-runner. The yard has a 33% strike rate at Stratford from a small sample of three runs, though the jockey’s record at the track stands at 13%. He has no experience on soft ground, which remains a concern, and with only two career starts plus a dam whose three other runners have failed to win this is still a low-confidence profile that will need to improve to figure in a Class 4.

3. 3Maria's Joy57/100

   Form 0/7- · Grace Harris · Joe Anderson(3)

   Family: half-sister to Leissieres Express (3 wins from 15 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 4 of them winners.

   Maria’s Joy is next on the KTB Fit list at 57 but has shown little in two starts and finished a remote tenth on her only visit to Stratford. She steps up in class here and remains very lightly raced. The yard records an 18% strike rate at the track from 34 runs, which is above their 7% strike rate elsewhere, and the 3lb claimer Joe Anderson has a 27% record at Stratford from 22 rides. She is unproven on soft ground and will be held up in rear, producing her effort late. Half-sister to Leissieres Express who won three times from 15 runs, the family line shows the dam has had seven other runners with four winners, yet the overall profile carries low data confidence.

4. 4Dernier Set55/100

   Form 6 · Ben Pauling · Kielan Woods

   Family: half-brother to Good Ball (2 wins from 4 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 5 of them winners.

   Dernier Set is rated 55 on KTB Fit after showing only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 2m1½f. He now drops back in trip to one he has not tried, which asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced four-year-old. The yard has a solid 23% strike rate at Stratford from 94 runs, above their 15% elsewhere, while Kielan Woods has a 17% record here from 189 rides. He is unproven on soft ground and will settle in mid-division according to the limited evidence available. Half-brother to Good Ball who won twice from four starts, the family line notes the dam has had seven other runners with five winners, supplying some pedigree interest.

5. 5Cheap Sandwiches53/100

   Form 2445-5 · Chris Gordon · Tom Cannon

   Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

   Cheap Sandwiches carries a KTB Fit score of 53 and has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning, though he arrives off the back of a modest fifth on his return. The yard’s 12% strike rate at Stratford from 81 runs sits in line with their overall figure, and Tom Cannon has a 15% record at the track from 183 rides. He is unproven on soft ground and will race in mid-division. With only five career runs and a dam whose one other runner failed to win, he remains not fully exposed and could improve further in this muddling tactical race.

6. 6King Rolo52/100

   Harry Derham · Paul O'Brien

   King Rolo has a single run under his belt in the last year and was unsuccessful at this trip. The Harry Derham yard has a 22% strike rate at Stratford from 18 runs, while Paul O’Brien has a 25% record here from 57 rides. With only one piece of form to go on, the going sample too small to judge and a mid-division run-style on limited evidence, this remains very much an unknown.

7. 7Rock On Ronnie52/100

   Form 73- · Olly Murphy · Robert Dunne

   Family: half-brother to Chicago Time, a Listed winner (2 wins from 9 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Rock On Ronnie is lightly raced with just two runs and an official rating yet to be published, so this assessment is tentative. He has been placed once at today’s trip and is a half-brother to Listed winner Chicago Time, though the small sample makes it hard to gauge his true level. The Olly Murphy yard has a 16% strike rate at Stratford from 178 runs in line with their record elsewhere, while he will be held up in rear.

8. 8Bebe And Bean46/100

   Form 55/6- · Olly Murphy · Kevin Brogan

   Family: half-brother to Rapper (5 wins from 33 runs). The dam has had 3 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Bebe And Bean has shown modest form in three starts over this trip and looks limited on what is visible so far. He is a half-brother to Rapper who won five times from 33 runs, and the dam has had three other runners with two winners. The Olly Murphy yard operates at a 16% strike rate here which is in line with their record elsewhere, and he is likely to race prominently.

9. 9Chocks Away46/100

   Form 735- · Henrietta C Knight · Gavin Sheehan

   Family: half-brother to Above Suspicion (1 win from 14 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 1 of them a winner.

   Chocks Away has shown mixed form in three starts so far, finishing seventh on debut before two placed efforts at longer trips. He drops back in trip to 2m today having failed to win in his one previous attempt at the distance. The Henrietta C Knight yard holds a 12% strike rate at Stratford from 153 runs in line with their record elsewhere, and he will settle in mid-division.

10. 10Dressed Overall39/100

    Faye Bramley · Beau Morgan(5)

    Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

    Dressed Overall is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The dam has had just one previous runner which never won, and the horse is by Flag Of Honour who has a 0% overall win rate from 58 runners. Trainer Faye Bramley has a 17% strike rate at Stratford from a small sample of six runs.