8:30 Dundalk (AW)
This 1m4f handicap at Dundalk on standard ground brings together a field of nine where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but readable contest. Four principals stand out on Fit scores between 54 and 62, with the top two both rated at 62, while the remainder range down to 38. The race is for a Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap and the KTB material highlights course form, trip suitability and trainer/jockey records at the venue as key factors.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape of high confidence, the race is expected to be contested up front by a front-runner pressed by several handy types. Not Just Any Eagle is the most likely leader from draw 8, with prominent runners Serenity Blue, Tribal Moon, Pillar Of Hope, Palmezzano and Sunrush all likely to be on or close to the pace. Held-up types Unterberg and Zoffman will look to come from off it, while Nermal settles in midfield. The key question is whether the prominent group can set a fair test that leaves enough for the closers or if the early pace will stretch the field.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Not Just Any Eagle KTB Selection62/100
Not Just Any Eagle is a fair performer who has won once from seven starts at this track and holds a solid course record overall. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at twice from nine attempts and has shown consistent form on standard going with a win and three places from seven runs. The 7-year-old, rated 82, arrives with recent form figures of 032415 and is drawn 8. Patrick J Flynn has an 11% strike rate at Dundalk from 603 runs while Robyn Donaghue-Leahy, claiming 7lb, is operating above their usual level with a 17% record from 66 rides at the venue. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to take the field along in what is likely to be a genuinely-run affair.
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2Unterberg62/100
Unterberg is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, winning six of 11 starts here. He has struck at today's trip four times from nine attempts and is proven on standard ground with six wins from 12 runs. Rated 86, the 7-year-old has recent form figures of 880948 and is drawn in stall 1. Laura Hourigan's 29% strike rate at Dundalk from 45 runs is well above their 3% elsewhere, though jockey Rory Mulligan, claiming 5lb, has a 7% rate here that sits in line with his overall record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a genuine clip.
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3Nermal59/100
Nermal is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts. He has been competitive on this track without winning, with form figures of 8th, 2nd and 5th from three runs here, and has handled the standard surface though without scoring. Rated 83, he steps up in trip today having failed to score in two previous tries at 1m4f. A. Slattery has an 8% strike rate at Dundalk from 932 runs in line with his record elsewhere while Adam Browne-Souza, claiming 7lb, has a 12% strike rate here also in line with his overall figure. Typically settling in midfield, he will look to make his move from a middle berth in draw 3.
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4Pillar Of Hope54/100
Pillar Of Hope is a fair performer who has run nine times at this track without winning but has been placed. He steps up in trip today having won twice from seven starts at this distance and is competitive on standard ground, with one placed effort from 11 runs on the surface. Rated 82, the 8-year-old has recent form figures of 648117 and is drawn 6. P Sweeney has a 4% strike rate here from 48 runs in line with their record elsewhere while Patrick McGettigan, claiming 5lb, is 9% from 170 rides at Dundalk in line with his 7% at other courses. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is one of several that will be prominent early.
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5Serenity Blue54/100
Serenity Blue is a fair performer who has already won once at this track and once over today's trip. She also has a win on the standard surface from her only previous try. The yard's 10% strike rate at Dundalk is above their record elsewhere while the 5lb claimer is operating at a 7% rate here in line with his overall figure.
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6Tribal Moon50/100
Tribal Moon is a modest performer who has won twice from 13 starts at this track and holds an official rating of 67. He steps up in trip to 1m4f today having been unsuccessful in his one previous try at the distance. Trainer and jockey both operate with 8% and 4% strike rates at Dundalk respectively which are in line with their records elsewhere.
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7Zoffman48/100
Zoffman is a fair handicapper who has been consistent without winning lately, with recent form including two placed efforts from his last six starts. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at before, though he is unproven on standard going and makes his first appearance at Dundalk. The trainer's 9% strike rate here is below his overall figure while the jockey's 7% is in line with his record at the track.
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8Palmezzano43/100
Palmezzano is a modest performer who won over this trip at Dundalk earlier this year and has placed here again since. Recent form of 74-461 shows a fair level of consistency on the all-weather without looking progressive. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate at this track which sits in line with their records elsewhere.
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9Sunrush38/100
Sunrush is a fair 3-year-old who showed his best form when winning at this track last time before a lesser effort over 1m6f. He is now dropping back to 1m4f where he has already placed once from one attempt. The yard and jockey both record an 8% and 7% strike rate at Dundalk respectively, both in line with their figures at other tracks. The dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.
KTB verdict
Not Just Any Eagle stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with a solid course record at Dundalk, including one win from seven starts, he drops back to a trip he has won at twice and boasts consistent form on standard ground. His front-running style should see him take the field along in a genuinely-run race, with the trainer and jockey combination both showing above-average figures at the venue. The main dangers are likely to be Unterberg, who has a fine record here with six wins from 11 starts and is proven at the trip and on the surface, and Nermal, the 3-year-old with a solid recent record who has been competitive at the track. Pillar Of Hope cannot be entirely dismissed either given his wins at the distance.
KTB Selection Not Just Any Eagle
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 2:18am, 30 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Not Just Any Eagle | 7/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Unterberg | 11/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Nermal | 7/2 | Bet365, 2:18am |
| Pillar Of Hope | 16/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Serenity Blue | 2/1 | Bet365, 2:18am |
| Tribal Moon | 5/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Zoffman | 9/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
| Palmezzano | 12/1 | Bet365, 2:18am |
| Sunrush | 12/1 | Bet Victor, 12:16am |
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit score?
Not Just Any Eagle is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 62/100.
How many wins has Unterberg recorded at Dundalk?
Unterberg has won six of 11 starts at this track.
What is the going read for Zoffman?
Zoffman has no runs on standard going and is therefore unproven on the surface.
Which runners are noted as prominent or front-running in style?
Not Just Any Eagle is a front-runner, while Pillar Of Hope, Serenity Blue, Tribal Moon, Palmezzano and Sunrush are all prominent types.
Has Nermal won at 1m4f before?
Nermal has failed to score in two previous tries at 1m4f.
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