12:50 Ascot
This Class 4 Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle at Ascot over 2m3f63y on good ground brings together nine runners, several of whom hold smart official ratings for the level. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with four principals rated between 69 and 73, underlining a competitive renewal in which recent form, trip suitability and Ascot records will all matter. The selection sits at the head of the KTB rankings and carries the highest KTB Fit of 73.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run race is expected with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, setting up a fair test. Fidendum is the most positive front-runner on his record and should take them along, with Beau Quali and Top Coeur both prominent runners who will be close to the pace. The key question is whether those racing prominently can maintain their effort up the straight or if the held-up horses such as Lord Chamberlain, Media Mogul and Mr Rafiki will be able to close with a late burst on this sound surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Beau Quali KTB Selection73/100
Beau Quali arrives as a smart performer who has shown solid recent order, recording two seconds and a pair of placed efforts from his last six starts. He has already demonstrated his ability on good ground with two wins from eight starts and has won over today's trip. The six-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead, which should see him well placed in a race where the pace is expected to be genuine. Christian Williams has a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 23 runs, a figure in line with the yard's record elsewhere, while Toby McCain-Mitchell boasts a 43% strike rate at the track from only seven rides. The partnership's 4/14 (29%) record together adds further interest to a horse that tops the KTB Fit ratings at 73.
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2Fidendum71/100
Fidendum is another smart performer who comes into the race in solid form after a win and two placings from his last three starts. The seven-year-old steps up in trip today having looked at home over two miles, which poses a fresh question about his stamina. He is a confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, and with high confidence in that run-style he is likely to set the fractions in what is predicted to be a genuinely-run contest. David Killahena & Graeme McPherson have a 50% strike rate at Ascot from two runs, though that is a small sample, while the yard's overall record with Nick Slatter reads 24/160 (15%). He has two wins from seven starts on good ground with three further places and holds a KTB Fit score of 71.
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3Secret Sniper71/100
Secret Sniper is rated a smart performer on the figures and brings solid recent form that includes two seconds. The five-year-old has course experience from finishing fifth here on his only previous visit to Ascot and now steps up in trip, which remains an unknown. He typically settles in midfield, a run-style that could prove well suited if the race develops into the anticipated strong gallop. Hughie Morrison's 9% strike rate at Ascot from 322 runs is in line with the yard's overall figure, and Jonathan Burke holds a 19% strike rate at the track from 88 rides. The yard and jockey combined record reads 13/57 (23%). As a full brother to Secret Squirrel, who won five times from 15 runs, he also carries a positive family line. His KTB Fit stands at 71 and he is dropping in class.
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4Lord Chamberlain69/100
Lord Chamberlain is a smart performer who has shown useful form this year, recording a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having only raced over 2m previously, which poses a fresh question, and this will be his first appearance at Ascot. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited to a genuinely-run race with a strong pace up front. On good ground he has one win and three places from six runs. Ryan Hatch has no previous Ascot record but an overall 25% strike rate from four runs, while Tom Bellamy has an 8% strike rate at the track from 80 rides. The KTB Fit of 69 places him firmly among the principals.
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5Media Mogul61/100
Media Mogul is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a placed effort this year. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while Tom Dascombe's 6% strike rate at Ascot from 155 runs sits below the yard's 13% elsewhere. Usually held up, he has one win from five starts on good with two further places and holds a KTB Fit of 61 while dropping in class.
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6Handmedownastar58/100
Handmedownastar is a high-class performer who arrives in solid form with a win at today's trip from just two attempts over the distance. He has already shown he handles this ground and first-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up, the yard's 0% strike rate at Ascot from five runs is a negative despite the strong course connections. His KTB Fit stands at 58 and he is dropping in class.
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7Jammy Jay55/100
Jammy Jay is a useful performer who arrives in solid nick with two seconds and a fourth from his last four starts. He has placed three times from ten runs on good ground without winning and this is his first run at Ascot with only one previous attempt at this trip, leaving questions to answer. The yard's 14% strike rate at Ascot from 37 runs sits in line with their record elsewhere and the KTB Fit is 55.
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8Mr Rafiki50/100
Mr Rafiki is a smart performer on his official rating and has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts mixed with a couple of falls. He drops back in trip today having been well held on his only previous run at this distance while first-time headgear is another unknown. Usually held up, the yard's 4% strike rate at Ascot from 23 runs is in line with their record elsewhere and the KTB Fit is 50.
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9Top Coeur47/100
Top Coeur is a useful performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back in trip today while wearing first-time headgear and that combination adds a question mark. Usually prominent, the yard's 9% strike rate at Ascot from 23 runs is in line with the record elsewhere and he holds a KTB Fit of 47.
KTB verdict
Beau Quali tops the KTB Fit ratings at 73 and is taken as the selection. He has shown consistent form with placed efforts in recent starts, handles good ground, has won over the trip and his prominent run-style looks ideal in a race set to be run at a genuine pace. Christian Williams and Toby McCain-Mitchell combine with a 29% record together and the jockey's strong Ascot strike rate adds appeal. The main dangers are Fidendum, who is likely to make the running and arrives in good heart, Secret Sniper, who drops in class with solid figures and course experience, and Lord Chamberlain, who brings progressive form and a late kick that could be effective if the leaders go hard.
KTB Selection Beau Quali
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 31 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Beau Quali | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Fidendum | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Secret Sniper | 9/4 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Lord Chamberlain | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Media Mogul | 10/3 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Handmedownastar | 15/2 | Midnite, 12:03am |
| Jammy Jay | 10/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Mr Rafiki | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Top Coeur | 14/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:50 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ascot racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having looked at home over two miles?
Fidendum steps up in trip today having looked at home over two miles, which poses a fresh question.
Who is the only runner with previous course form at Ascot?
Secret Sniper has course experience from finishing fifth here on his only previous visit.
Which principals are prominent or front-running?
Beau Quali is prominent, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, while Fidendum is a front-runner who tends to make the running. Top Coeur is also prominent.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Three runners are wearing first-time headgear: Handmedownastar, Mr Rafiki and Top Coeur.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ascot among those with runners here?
David Killahena & Graeme McPherson have a 50% strike rate at Ascot from two runs with Fidendum.
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