4:00 Plumpton
A competitive Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m4f116y at Plumpton on good ground brings together seven runners, several with solid placed form or course experience. The KTB Fit Scores separate them modestly at the top, with The Boss Bear heading the numbers on 66, followed by Calme Olympien on 61 and then Kandor and Low Expectations both on 58. Lightly-raced types rub shoulders with more exposed performers, and the race looks set to hinge on how the muddling pace unfolds given the absence of an obvious front-runner.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runner in the field the pace is expected to be muddling and tactical, suiting horses ridden close to the pace or those with the ability to produce a late effort once the race opens up. Several runners, including Kandor, Low Expectations, Coastal Command and Everyonesgame, are usually prominent or race handily, which could see them vie for position early. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of a closer such as The Boss Bear or Keno Black when the tempo lifts approaching the final flight.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1The Boss Bear KTB Selection66/100
The Boss Bear is a smart performer who won on his only completed start over this trip and has already shown his liking for Plumpton with a win from two runs here. He holds an official rating of 109, drops in class and carries a record of 1 win from 3 starts on good ground. James Owen posts a 28% strike rate at the track from 50 runs, in line with his overall figure, while Brendan Powell has an 11% strike rate at Plumpton from 308 rides. Lightly raced for a six-year-old with only seven career starts, his form and course connections give plenty to work with. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is expected to come into the race with a strong late run in this muddling pace.
-
2Calme Olympien61/100
Calme Olympien is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a string of competitive runs at a lower level. Rated 108, he has won on good ground and steps up in trip today for the first time in a while, which looks an open question on pedigree and past efforts. Tim Vaughan operates at a 12% strike rate at Plumpton from 165 runs in line with his record elsewhere, while David Noonan has a 10% strike rate here from 108 rides. This is a first appearance at the track for both horse and jockey. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to make his challenge once the muddling pace develops.
-
3Kandor58/100
Kandor is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a recent fourth and has already shown he can handle this trip with a placed effort from three attempts. Rated 107 and stepping up in class, he has won on good ground. Nick Scholfield maintains a 33% strike rate at Plumpton from six runs while claiming jockey Mr Daniel Williams has a 50% strike rate here from just two rides. First run at the course adds an unknown element though the overall profile remains strong. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent in a race lacking an obvious front-runner.
-
4Low Expectations58/100
Low Expectations is a useful performer who won over this course and distance on his first visit. Rated 102, he has not added to that success in five runs since but ran well enough on good ground last season to suggest he remains competitive off his current mark. Nick Gifford has a 13% strike rate at Plumpton from 344 runs and Tom Cannon boasts a 17% strike rate here from 618 rides. Dropping back in trip today after a longer run on his final start, he is usually prominent and should be on or close to the pace in this tactical affair.
-
5Coastal Command54/100
Coastal Command is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form in three of his four starts. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, while the going remains an unknown with only four career runs on the board. Nicky Henderson has a 31% strike rate at Plumpton from 262 runs which is above his 22% at other courses, and Nico de Boinville posts a 20% strike rate here from 75 rides in line with his record elsewhere. Usually racing handily, he should be prominent.
-
6Everyonesgame52/100
Everyonesgame is a smart performer who ran to a solid level when second on his return here last month. Rated 110, he has placed on all three previous visits to Plumpton without winning. The yard’s 7% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere, he has shown three wins from 19 starts on good ground, and he is still looking for his first success at today’s trip after five attempts. Usually racing handily, he is likely to be prominent.
-
7Keno Black51/100
Keno Black is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning a 2m5½f handicap at Fontwell in December before falling in a stronger race last time. Rated 107, he drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. Neil Mulholland has a 14% strike rate at Plumpton from 304 runs in line with his record elsewhere, while Conor O'Farrell has no established course record. Usually held up, he will be looking to produce his effort late.
KTB verdict
The Boss Bear stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer with a win over this trip on his only completed start at the distance and a previous success at Plumpton, he drops in class and has the right profile for a muddling, tactical race given his held-up run style. His trainer’s strong record at the track adds further confidence. The main dangers are headed by Calme Olympien, who brings solid recent form and should be well positioned from midfield, while both Kandor and Low Expectations have the speed to be prominent and the ability to feature if the pace falls their way. Coastal Command, Everyonesgame and Keno Black round out a field where several hold each other closely on the figures.
KTB Selection The Boss Bear
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:18am, 2 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| The Boss Bear | 3/1 | Bet Victor, 12:09am |
| Calme Olympien | 11/2 | Sporting Index, 12:18am |
| Kandor | 9/1 | Bet Victor, 12:09am |
| Low Expectations | 6/1 | Betfred, 12:15am |
| Coastal Command | 4/1 | Bet Victor, 12:09am |
| Everyonesgame | 7/1 | Bet Victor, 12:09am |
| Keno Black | 5/2 | BetMGM, 12:18am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Plumpton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Plumpton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Plumpton results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Plumpton racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won over today’s distance on its only completed start at the trip?
The Boss Bear
Why does the race look likely to suit horses ridden close to the pace?
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner
Which runner is dropping in class and has course-and-distance winning form?
Low Expectations
What is the trainer strike rate at Plumpton for the handler of the KTB Selection?
28% from 50 runs
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time in a while?
Calme Olympien
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies