What is Adam Nicol's strike rate?

Adam Nicol has won 127 of 1,199 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adam Nicol do best at?

Wetherby by strike rate: 26 wins from 136 rides (19.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Adam Nicol ride most for?

Philip Kirby, with 563 rides since 2008 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 82 (14.6%).

What is Adam Nicol's Fair A/E?

1.15, from 1,199 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Adam Nicol

1,199 rides in the lifetime window · 405 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Mar 2020 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

127–1,199

Wins / Runs

10.6%

Strike rate

n=1,199

317 (26%)

Placed

1.15

Fair A/E

n=1,199 · 1.00 incl. margin

−198.98

£1 level stake

n=1,199 at SP · −16.6%

£854k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 90 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.15). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (115 rides). Rode mostly for Philip Kirby — 47% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,199 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 34.2% when favourite Philip Kirby: 14.6% from 563 LTO winners: 15.7% Rode the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Wetherby (19.1%, n=136), clear of the rider's 10.6% baseline. It is weakest at Perth (0% over 54 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.7% (n=115, Fair A/E 0.91). Rides in big fields of 14 or more are the standout value angle: 8.2% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.46 and +42.25 to a £1 stake over 159 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Philip Kirby supplied 47% of the rides and edges the rider's average (14.6% vs 10.6%, A/E 1.29) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well beyond 3m (19%, n=63) and in Chase races (15.9%, n=176). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Mansionbet Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase at Doncaster (Dec 2018, £44,193). The standout partner of the record was Lady Buttons (GB) — 12 wins from 26 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.4%−2.2

n=405 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −48.62

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.7%+5.1

n=115 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −41.94

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.4%−1.2

n=245 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −42.37

When favourite

34.2%

n=79 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −2.43

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.4%−0.2

n=714 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −5.39

Big fields · 14+ runners

8.2%−2.4

n=159 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +42.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

21.1%+10.5

n=19 · A/E 1.81 · £1 −4.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Perth 0% vs 10.6% · n=54

At Wetherby 19.1% vs 10.6% · n=136

With C&D winners 18.9% vs 10.6% · n=106

At Kelso 1.5% vs 10.6% · n=65

Beyond 3m 19% vs 10.6% · n=63

In Chase races 15.9% vs 10.6% · n=176

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 880 89 10.1% −149.31

Chase 176 28 15.9% +21.67

NH Flat 138 10 7.2% −66.34

Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 454 46 10.1% −20.55

Soft 280 37 13.2% −22.02

Good to Soft 256 17 6.6% −94.62

Heavy 150 21 14% −29.84

Good to Firm 50 5 10% −25.45

Standard (AW) 9 1 11.1% −6.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wetherby 136 26 19.1% +68.84

Sedgefield 134 13 9.7% −41.50

Hexham 90 9 10% −28.67

Southwell 84 14 16.7% +15.75

Uttoxeter 81 10 12.3% +7.55

Market Rasen 78 5 6.4% −25.88

Catterick 68 6 8.8% −24.00

Kelso 65 1 1.5% −55.00

Newcastle 62 6 9.7% −40.33

Musselburgh 61 7 11.5% +41.50

Carlisle 57 4 7% −25.00

Perth 54 0 0% −54.00

Ayr 53 4 7.5% −24.25

Doncaster 39 3 7.7% −28.62

Cartmel 30 1 3.3% −25.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 564 61 10.8% −74.77

Class 5 376 36 9.6% −43.67

Class 6 111 9 8.1% −41.84

Class 3 99 13 13.1% −27.37

Class 2 28 4 14.3% −4.83

Class 1 20 4 20% −5.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 92 31 33.7% 1.14 −1.81

2nd–3rd fav 246 43 17.5% 1.09 −27.67

4th–6th fav 402 36 9% 1.23 −56.50

7th+ in betting 459 17 3.7% 1.20 −113.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

78% completed · 1,056 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 176 65.9% 5 9 44 0 2

Hurdle 880 80.5% 18 6 146 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Lady Buttons (GB) 26 12 16 30 Nov 19

Sakhee's City (FR) 23 3 13 21 Dec 19

Agent Louise (GB) 23 3 6 1 Jan 17

Suggestion (GB) 17 3 7 9 Mar 20

Nautical Nitwit (IRE) 17 5 9 26 Sep 18

Auto Mac (GB) 16 1 5 9 Jun 16

Factor Fifty (IRE) 15 2 5 1 Sep 16

Cleve Cottage (GB) 14 1 4 28 Mar 17

Brunello (GB) 14 1 3 24 Nov 15

Transient Bay (IRE) 13 4 5 7 Apr 18

Strathaird (IRE) 13 2 6 2 Oct 12

Final Fling (IRE) 12 3 5 15 Nov 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 405 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

11101151091021591114

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPhilip Kirby

47% of all rides
14.6% SR · A/E 1.29

TrainerRWSR£1

Philip Kirby 563 82 14.6% −29.76

Mike Sowersby 101 5 5% −46.75

Andrew Crook 62 7 11.3% +64.00

David Thompson 50 3 6% −7.25

Lucy Normile 42 2 4.8% −6.00

Tina Jackson 34 4 11.8% −14.50

Michael Smith 32 4 12.5% +13.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

127

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£854k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 24 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lady Buttons (GB) — Mansionbet Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase (Listed) Doncaster · Dec 2018 · Listed

£44,193

Lady Buttons (GB) — Ladbrokes In Memory Of Tara Von Ihering Handicap Chase Newbury · Dec 2018 · Class 2

£25,024

Lady Buttons (GB) — Yorton Stallions Mares' Novices' Chase (Listed) Bangor-on-Dee · Nov 2017 · Listed

£14,238

Notable horses

Lady Buttons (GB) Nautical Nitwit (IRE) Transient Bay (IRE) Sakhee's City (FR) Agent Louise (GB) Suggestion (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 22.4% · 13–58

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Alflora (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Presenting (GB) 6.7% · 2–30

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Milan (GB) 18.5% · 5–27

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,876 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,756 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Sakhee (USA) 12% · 3–25

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,202 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,202 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 May 2006 to 15 March 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Mar 20 Market Rasen Bestiarius (IRE)T: Gillian Boanas West Lindsey District Council Chairman's Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 4/1

15 Mar 20 Market Rasen Fabrication (GB)T: Philip Kirby In Memory Of Ron Lane 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 66/1

12 Mar 20 Doncaster Just Call Me Al (IRE)T: Gillian Boanas MansionBet GetItReady For Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 6/1

09 Mar 20 Stratford Suggestion (GB)T: Philip Kirby Low6 Cheltenham Festival Preview Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16.5f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 50/1

26 Dec 19 Sedgefield Robbing The Prey (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Gary Wood Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 11 ran F 16/1

26 Dec 19 Sedgefield Bertie Blake (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Sprayclad UK Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 8/1

21 Dec 19 Haydock Sakhee's City (FR)T: Philip Kirby Betway Casino Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 24.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 14/1

17 Dec 19 Catterick Fabrication (GB)T: Philip Kirby Racing Again 28th December Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 66/1

17 Dec 19 Catterick My Strong Man (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Old Red House Thirsk Juvenile HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 7th 16/1

16 Dec 19 Ffos Las Modulus (GB)T: D J Jeffreys Pendine Sands Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran 5th 9/2

12 Dec 19 Newcastle Modulus (GB)T: D J Jeffreys 'Follow The Race To Westminster bonusbets.co.uk/uk-election' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Soft · 14 ran F 7/2

11 Dec 19 Hexham Aniknam (FR)T: Philip Kirby Purchase Your 2020 Hexham Membership Today Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 23.5f · Heavy · 10 ran 2nd 16/1

10 Dec 19 Uttoxeter Machiavelli (GB)T: Philip Kirby Paul James Knitwear Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 11 ran 8th 25/1

09 Dec 19 Musselburgh Ice Galley (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Visit Racingtv.com Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 33/1

07 Dec 19 Wetherby Red Dragoness (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Fillies' 'Junior' Standard Open NH Flat Race (NHMOPS Bonus Race)Class 5 · 12.5f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 7/2

07 Dec 19 Wetherby Suggestion (GB)T: Philip Kirby All Steels Trading Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 16/1

30 Nov 19 Newcastle Lady Buttons (GB)T: Philip Kirby Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)Class 1 · 16f · Heavy · 5 ran 4th 7/1

30 Nov 19 Newcastle Robbing The Prey (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 11/1

27 Nov 19 Wetherby Fille D'avignon (IRE)T: Philip Kirby ROA: A Voice For Racehorse Owners EBF Stallions Mares' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 9th 25/1

27 Nov 19 Wetherby Niven (IRE)T: Philip Kirby Make The Most Of Racehorse Ownership With The Roa Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 15f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adam Nicol's strike rate?: Adam Nicol has won 127 of 1,199 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adam Nicol do best at?: Wetherby by strike rate: 26 wins from 136 rides (19.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Adam Nicol ride most for?: Philip Kirby, with 563 rides since 2008 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 82 (14.6%).
What is Adam Nicol's Fair A/E?: 1.15, from 1,199 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.