Martin Todhunter
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 80 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.94).
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 7.2% (n=83, Fair A/E 0.74). Sean Quinlan rides 21% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 0.69). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (18.4%, n=38) and in Chase races (15.8%, n=133). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 35 runners, 11.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.69 across 153 runners (7.8% strike, −72.29 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase at Ayr (Apr 2015, £22,780). The stable star of the record: Presenting Junior (IRE) — 10 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 2,858 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 2,858 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 22 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Martin Todhunter's strike rate?
- Martin Todhunter has won 48 of 412 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Martin Todhunter do best at?
- Hexham by strike rate: 8 wins from 48 runners (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Martin Todhunter?
- Sean Quinlan, with 87 runners since 2022 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (10.3%).
- Is Martin Todhunter in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Martin Todhunter's Fair A/E?
- 0.94, from 411 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.