Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). With a claiming rider up the record reads 13% (38 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 209 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceJonathan Burke: 10% from 80Claiming riders: 13.2%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 7.8% (n=77, Fair A/E 0.82). Jonathan Burke rides 38% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10%, A/E 0.77). The yard also reads well on Good going (16.4%, n=110) and in Class 5 (16%, n=50). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 5% over 60 runners, 6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.60 across 51 runners (5.9% strike, −28.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 19 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Folkestone Maiden Hurdle at Folkestone (Jan 2008, £677,966). The stable star of the record: Many Clouds (IRE) — 12 wins from 27 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.8%−3.2
n=77 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −45.12
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.0
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
21.4%+10.4
n=14 · A/E 2.07 · £1 +17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.1%−3.9
n=14 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
8.3%−2.7
n=12 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −6.50
When favourite
46.2%
n=13 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +1.19
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13.2%+2.2
n=38 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −3.09
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
25%+14.0
n=4 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −0.75
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going16.4% vs 11% · n=110
On Good to Soft going5% vs 11% · n=60
Off a 61-180-day break5.9% vs 11% · n=51
In Class 516% vs 11% · n=50
In Chase races8.7% vs 11% · n=46
With horses switching code8.6% vs 11% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1381510.9%−61.88
Chase4648.7%−21.34
NH Flat20420%+14.25
Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1101816.4%−10.60
Good to Soft6035%−41.87
Soft2627.7%−8.50
Heavy500%−5.00
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Fontwell25520%−4.62
Southwell1815.6%−10.50
Plumpton15213.3%+0.00
Warwick1218.3%−10.85
Huntingdon12325%+1.88
Doncaster1100%−11.00
Exeter10110%+2.00
Ffos Las9222.2%+1.75
Taunton900%−9.00
Uttoxeter900%−9.00
Hereford9111.1%−4.67
Lingfield800%−8.00
Market Rasen700%−7.00
Chepstow7114.3%+3.00
Worcester500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4122129.8%−71.88
Class 550816%+5.66
Class 32713.7%−18.00
Class 25120%+12.00
Class 14125%−0.75
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite15640%1.10−0.81
2nd–3rd fav54814.8%0.83−20.16
4th–6th fav7779.1%1.15−19.00
7th+ in betting6323.2%0.99−34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m7379.6%−32.59
2m1f – 2m4f7179.9%−27.91
1m5f – 2m37410.8%−16.60
Over 3m27518.5%+4.13
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022122129.8%−54.61
2023871112.6%−19.36
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1431611.2%−48.63
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners691014.5%−8.37
8-10 runners6258.1%−29.97
11-13 runners4312.3%−35.50
14-16 runners18211.1%+2.25
2-4 runners15533.3%−0.38
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 54 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 54 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive; 37 had their first archived run for this yard.
26 have since run for another yard, most often for Harry Derham (14) and Alastair Ralph (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
3541829220000170
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
445
Archived wins
19
Pattern / graded wins
£5.43m
Prize money
2019
Best season · 41 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Souriceau (FR) — Folkestone Maiden Hurdle (Div 2) Folkestone · Jan 2008
£677,966
Many Clouds (IRE) — Crabbie's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Aintree · Apr 2015 · Grade 3
£561,300
Many Clouds (IRE) — Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Newbury · Nov 2014 · Grade 3
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,758 runs since 2008 (799 horses).
Martaline (GB)40% · 4–10
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,339 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 3,446 · newest first
The latest 50 of 3,446 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 28 July 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Oliver Sherwood's strike rate?
Oliver Sherwood has won 23 of 209 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Oliver Sherwood?
Jonathan Burke, with 80 runners since 2022 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (10%).
What is Oliver Sherwood's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 209 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Oliver Sherwood·SR 11%·A/E 0.99
KTB
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