Angus Cheleda
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). First rides on a horse are a strength: 15% on the first captured pairing (161 rides).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 8.9% (n=56, Fair A/E 1.46). Paul Nicholls supplies 39% of the rides and beats the rider's average (21.2% vs 13.1%, A/E 1.22) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 2 (24.1%, n=54). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 3.3% over 30 rides, 9.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.48 across 82 rides (4.9% strike, −57.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Nov–Dec.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 13.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2016→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 305 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 305 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 November 2016 to 21 July 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Angus Cheleda's strike rate?
- Angus Cheleda has won 40 of 305 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 13.1% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Angus Cheleda do best at?
- Taunton by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 rides (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Angus Cheleda ride most for?
- Paul Nicholls, with 118 rides since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (21.2%).
- What is Angus Cheleda's Fair A/E?
- 1.04, from 305 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.