Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.09).
Deterministic profile computed from 203 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceBrendan Powell: 16% from 144
The read
Brendan Powell rides 71% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (16%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 3 (23.7%, n=38) and on Good going (22%, n=59). The record reads poorly in Class 5 — 7.9% over 38 runners, 7.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good to Soft going: Fair A/E 0.75 across 70 runners (8.6% strike, −31.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 93 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2018, £369,822). The stable star of the record: Cue Card (GB) — 16 wins from 41 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.9%−9.4
n=17 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −13.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
40%+24.7
n=5 · A/E 2.55 · £1 +5.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−15.3
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
27.3%+12.0
n=11 · A/E 2.46 · £1 +6.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
42.9%
n=21 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +0.76
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
15.8%+0.5
n=19 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −6.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
6.9%−8.4
n=29 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −16.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 323.7% vs 15.3% · n=38
On Good to Soft going8.6% vs 15.3% · n=70
On Good going22% vs 15.3% · n=59
In Class 57.9% vs 15.3% · n=38
With a new jockey booking9.5% vs 15.3% · n=42
Over 2m1f – 2m4f19.7% vs 15.3% · n=76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle981818.4%−15.09
Chase921314.1%−28.82
NH Flat1000%−10.00
Flat300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft7068.6%−31.00
Soft631015.9%−11.04
Good591322%−10.47
Heavy9222.2%−2.40
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton34617.6%−9.42
Exeter26311.5%−3.00
Taunton1915.3%−17.17
Chepstow15213.3%+0.00
Cheltenham1300%−13.00
Newbury12325%+2.25
Aintree1000%−10.00
Kempton10440%+4.42
Plumpton8450%+8.50
Fontwell7114.3%−5.47
Ascot7114.3%−2.00
Newton Abbot500%−5.00
Sandown5240%+6.50
Ludlow5120%−2.12
Hereford400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4771316.9%−12.47
Class 338923.7%−5.37
Class 53837.9%−15.67
Class 12926.9%−16.00
Class 215320%−3.90
Class 66116.7%−3.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite241041.7%1.21+0.76
2nd–3rd fav641320.3%1.06−4.67
4th–6th fav69811.6%1.24−7.00
7th+ in betting4600%0.00−46.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f761519.7%−6.09
2m5f – 3m61813.1%−14.84
1m5f – 2m38615.8%−16.98
Over 3m2528%−16.00
1m – 1m1f200%−2.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1402014.3%−35.29
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners64710.9%−22.59
5-7 runners551221.8%−2.70
11-13 runners37616.2%−1.75
14-16 runners2300%−23.00
2-4 runners14642.9%+3.13
17+ runners1000%−10.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
The 60 most-raced of 72 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Harriet Brown (3); 51 had their first archived run for this yard.
55 have since run for another yard, most often for Joe Tizzard (52) and Syd Hosie (2); 5 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
17161711········
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
753
Archived wins
93
Pattern / graded wins
£15.0m
Prize money
2018
Best season · 88 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Native River (IRE) — Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2018 · Grade 1
£369,822
Thistlecrack (GB) — Ryanair World Hurdle (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2016 · Grade 1
£170,850
Cue Card (GB) — Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2013 · Class 1
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,898 runs since 2008 (1,025 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Arvico (FR)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 7.4% of 659 runs since 2008 (80 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10.9% from 202. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 2.7% from 110.
Milan (GB)18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,840 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Oscar (IRE)27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,542 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Al Namix (FR)22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 11.7% of 2,205 runs since 2008 (293 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 5,924 · newest first
The latest 50 of 5,924 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 22 April 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Colin Tizzard's strike rate?
Colin Tizzard has won 31 of 203 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Colin Tizzard do best at?
Wincanton by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 runners (17.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Colin Tizzard?
Brendan Powell, with 144 runners since 2022 — 71% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (16%).
What is Colin Tizzard's Fair A/E?
1.09, from 203 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Colin Tizzard·SR 15.3%·A/E 1.09
KTB
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