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Jockey profile

Arnaud Bourgeais

621 rides in the lifetime window · 328 individual horses
As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 36 days ago 98% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
65–621
Wins / Runs
10.5%
Strike rate
n=621
167 (27%)
Placed
0.92
Fair A/E
n=505 · 0.99 incl. margin
+11.05
£1 level stake
n=563 at SP · +2.0%
£1.25m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.4%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). First rides on a horse are a strength: 13% on the first captured pairing (327 rides). Rides mostly for N Leenders — 48% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 621 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May N Leenders: 9.4% from 298 First rides: 12.8%
The read

It is weakest at Saint-Cloud (FR) (4.7% over 107 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.8% (n=309, Fair A/E 1.00). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 12.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.34 and +77.45 to a £1 stake over 327 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.56 and −68.20 to a £1 stake over 224 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. N Leenders supplies 48% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.4%, A/E 0.79). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 3% over 33 rides, 7.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.49 across 107 rides (3.7% strike, −70.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix See You Sun - Trophee De L'elevage Anglo-arabe at Craon (FR) (Sep 2026, £24,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
12.8%+2.3
n=327 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +77.45
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
10%−0.5
n=50 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −26.90
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
6.7%−3.8
n=224 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −68.20
When favourite
41.4%
n=29 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +20.65
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.8%−4.7
n=309 · A/E 1.00 · £1 +16.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
10.2%−0.3
n=59 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −21.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With debutants 17% vs 10.5% · n=141
Off a break of 180+ days 3.7% vs 10.5% · n=107
With P Nicot 2.6% vs 10.5% · n=39
At Saint-Cloud (FR) 4.7% vs 10.5% · n=107
At Deauville (FR) 5.5% vs 10.5% · n=199
Off a 8-14-day break 3% vs 10.5% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 608 63 10.4% +17.75
NH Flat 13 2 15.4% −6.70

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 232 15 6.5% −3.30
Soft 140 19 13.6% −25.70
Good to Soft 103 12 11.7% +52.45
Heavy 75 10 13.3% +22.10
Good 64 9 14.1% −32.50
Firm 1 0 0% —

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR) 199 11 5.5% −48.60
Saint-Cloud (FR) 107 5 4.7% −35.20
Chantilly (FR) 49 6 12.2% +71.70
Longchamp (FR) 32 1 3.1% −21.40
Le Lion-D'Angers 28 7 25% +6.35
Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 28 1 3.6% −26.00
Nantes 23 7 30.4% +21.90
Craon 19 2 10.5% +2.80
Chateaubriant 14 4 28.6% +29.00
Senonnes-Pouance 12 1 8.3% −2.00
Angers 10 1 10% +6.00
Durtal 9 3 33.3% +9.40
Saint-Malo 8 1 12.5% −6.00
Les Sables-d'Olonne 8 0 0% −6.00
Argentan 7 1 14.3% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 59 6 10.2% −21.50
Class 4 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 13 41.9% 1.47 +23.35
2nd–3rd fav 119 19 16% 0.80 +28.50
4th–6th fav 169 10 5.9% 0.71 −53.50
7th+ in betting 244 10 4.1% 1.16 +12.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Chika Dream (FR) 15 4 5 25 May 20
Bamaxsar (FR) 12 0 5 14 Apr 18
Great Gorge (USA) 10 1 3 9 Aug 13
Great Tonio (FR) 8 0 2 20 Jan 23
Plume Du Peintre (FR) 8 0 3 16 Sep 13
Pharoa (FR) 7 1 2 6 May 21
Mousafir (GB) 7 3 4 21 Oct 15
Springboks (FR) 6 0 1 23 Jan 25
Predetermined (IRE) 6 1 2 22 Nov 22
Malki D'Aze (FR) 6 1 3 29 Nov 16
Oppida Quercus (FR) 6 1 2 12 Nov 13
Upssa De Mee (FR) 6 1 1 29 Oct 13
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 328 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
71041416911101013139
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardN Leenders
48% of all rides
9.4% SR · A/E 0.79
TrainerRWSR£1
N Leenders 298 28 9.4% −31.70
P Nicot 39 1 2.6% −14.00
Adrien Fouassier 37 6 16.2% +11.65
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
67
Archived wins
6
Pattern / graded wins
£1.27m
Prize money
2012
Best season · 17 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Heros Du Mas (FR) — Prix See You Sun - Trophee De L'elevage Anglo-arabe Craon (FR) · Sep 2026
£24,000
Malki D'Aze (FR) — Prix du Grand Camp () (Turf) Lyon Parilly (FR) · Nov 2014 · Listed
£21,667
Epatante (FR) — Prix Jacques de Vienne (AQPS (3yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Nov 2017 · Grade 1
£21,368
Notable horses
Chika Dream (FR) Mousafir (GB) Vally Jem (FR) Adimelo (FR) Vicky De L'Oasis (FR) Utoni Star (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Danehill Dancer (IRE) 23.5% · 4–17
Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
Air Eminem (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 5.1% of 118 runs since 2012 (14 horses).
Network (GER) 25% · 3–12
Progeny have won 14.1% of 3,770 runs since 2008 (380 horses). Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 10.2% from 275.
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 36.4% · 4–11
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,497 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Soul City (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 5.5% of 457 runs since 2015 (62 horses).
Spider Flight (FR) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 7.2% of 445 runs since 2017 (57 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 624 · newest first

The latest 50 of 624 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 July 2006 to 8 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Namour Du Bearn (FR)T: P Journiac Prix Du BourbonnaisClass 1 · 12.5f · Soft · 8 ran UR 9/2
05 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) King Motif (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix Du PeveleClass 4 · 12.5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 33/1
01 Oct 26 Argentan (FR) Non Negociable (FR)T: Mme A-S Pacault Prix Cadoudal12.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 11/1
28 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Venizzia (FR)T: Mme M Solignac Prix Haras De La Haie Neuve (Prix Onde Amere)15f · Very Soft · 14 ran 14th 22/1
21 Sep 26 Angers (FR) Lavendin (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix Mondial Du Lion (Prix Du Chateau Du Roi De Pologne)10.5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 9/1
21 Sep 26 Angers (FR) Ninja Bleu (FR)T: Mme I Pacault Prix Du Mesnil11.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 16/1
19 Sep 26 Senonnes-Pouance (FR) Melchior D Athon (FR)T: Gabriel Leenders Prix Des Dragages Du Val De Loire15f · Good · 9 ran 6th 100/30
19 Sep 26 Senonnes-Pouance (FR) My Best Vow (FR)T: Mickael Berto Prix M.t.m. (Prix De La Blisiere)15f · Good · 8 ran 6th 9/2
18 Sep 26 Moulins (FR) Nelson Du Seuil (FR)T: M Seror Prix Chanducoq12f · Very Soft · 11 ran 2nd 9/2
18 Sep 26 Moulins (FR) Namour Du Bearn (FR)T: P Journiac Prix Yves D'armaille - Prix Cokoriko12f · Very Soft · 12 ran 2nd 15/2
11 Sep 26 Le Mans (FR) Piano Bar (FR)T: A Baron Prix De Saint-saturninClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 33/1
06 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Merveille De Maine (FR)T: Louisa Carberry Prix De La Federation Des Eleveurs Au Galop (Prix De Beauchene)12f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 16/1
06 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Heros Du Mas (FR)T: Christophe Corduan Prix See You Sun - Trophee De L'elevage Anglo-arabe11f · Soft · 9 ran 1st 16/1
06 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Noga Star (FR)T: N Leenders Prix Association Des Aqps (Prix Richard De Gennes)12f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 9/4
05 Sep 26 Craon (FR) Roman Blue Tavel (FR)T: E Lecoiffier Prix Hegler (Prix Des Bumpers)Class 3 · 15f · Heavy · 16 ran 16th 40/1
28 Aug 26 Moulins (FR) Mage D'oudairies (FR)T: Daniela Mele Prix Bourbon-busset Et Pierre De Rouge14f · Soft · 10 ran 1st 7/2
24 Aug 26 Dieppe (FR) Edibest Fal (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix IlletesClass 3 · 12f · Very Soft · 12 ran 10th 7/1
18 Aug 26 Saint-Malo (FR) Nightmare Du Livet (FR)T: Mme Celine Lequien Prix Joseph Et Jobic Severe12.5f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 28/1
09 Aug 26 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Nikita Des Mottes (FR)T: Armel Lotout Prix Du Challenge Des Estivales (Prix De Feneu)12f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 15/2
09 Aug 26 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Meleagrine (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix #raceandcare (Prix De L'aubiniere)12f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 9/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Arnaud Bourgeais's strike rate?
Arnaud Bourgeais has won 65 of 621 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.5% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Arnaud Bourgeais do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 6 wins from 49 rides (12.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Arnaud Bourgeais ride most for?
N Leenders, with 298 rides since 2008 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 28 (9.4%).
What is Arnaud Bourgeais's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 505 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 13 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).