What is Cameron Noble's strike rate?

Cameron Noble has won 19 of 196 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Cameron Noble do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 0 wins from 31 rides (0%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Cameron Noble ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 89 rides since 2022 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (7.9%).

What is Cameron Noble's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 194 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Cameron Noble

196 rides in the last 5 seasons · 130 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Aug 2024 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2022

19–196

Wins / Runs

9.7%

Strike rate

n=196

39 (20%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=194 · 0.82 incl. margin

−61.65

£1 level stake

n=196 at SP · −31.5%

£186k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). When claiming the record reads 17% (42 rides). Rides mostly for Roger Varian — 45% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 196 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Roger Varian: 7.9% from 89 First rides: 10.5% Claiming: 16.7%

The read

It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (0% over 31 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Claiming rides have been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.45). Roger Varian supplies 45% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (7.9%, A/E 0.56). The rider also reads well off a 15-30-day break (16%, n=81) and on Good to Firm going (17.1%, n=35). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 4.9% over 41 rides, 4.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.65 across 51 rides (5.9% strike, −18.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Seamster (GB) — 6 wins from 28 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.5%+0.8

n=124 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −40.40

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.5%+2.8

n=16 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −10.80

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.7%−2.0

n=26 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −15.67

When favourite

29.4%

n=17 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −4.60

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

16.7%+7.0

n=42 · A/E 1.45 · £1 +8.15

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.7%−3.0

n=15 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +2.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.7

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Wolverhampton (AW) 0% vs 9.7% · n=31

Off a 15-30-day break 16% vs 9.7% · n=81

On Good to Firm going 17.1% vs 9.7% · n=35

When claiming 16.7% vs 9.7% · n=42

Off a 8-14-day break 4.9% vs 9.7% · n=41

Over 1m – 1m1f 5.9% vs 9.7% · n=51

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 120 8 6.7% −79.30

Good to Firm 35 6 17.1% +21.15

Good 24 3 12.5% +0.00

Good to Soft 10 1 10% −3.50

Soft 4 1 25% +3.00

Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 31 0 0% −31.00

Newcastle (AW) 27 6 22.2% +5.37

Lingfield (AW) 20 1 5% −13.00

Kempton (AW) 16 1 6.3% −14.67

Chelmsford City (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00

Southwell (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00

Yarmouth 9 2 22.2% +4.50

Brighton 8 2 25% +25.00

Thirsk 7 0 0% −7.00

Doncaster 6 1 16.7% −2.25

Salisbury 4 2 50% +3.20

Newmarket 4 0 0% −4.00

York 3 1 33.3% −0.80

Redcar 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 95 10 10.5% −33.72

Class 6 43 5 11.6% +12.75

Class 4 38 3 7.9% −25.68

Class 3 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 2 7 1 14.3% −2.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 20 5 25% 0.93 −7.60

2nd–3rd fav 49 8 16.3% 1.01 −6.55

4th–6th fav 58 3 5.2% 0.72 −34.50

7th+ in betting 69 3 4.3% 1.69 −13.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pride Of Nepal (GB) 6 2 3 7 Jun 24

Old News (GB) 4 1 1 28 Dec 22

Ramdon Rocks (GB) 4 1 2 18 Oct 22

Famous Footsteps (FR) 4 1 1 21 Jun 22

Dragon Icon (IRE) 3 0 0 1 Mar 24

Pillarsofcreation (GB) 3 0 2 27 Oct 23

Kodiman (IRE) 3 0 1 11 Sep 23

Maitre De Perles (FR) 3 0 0 25 Jan 23

Silky Smooth (IRE) 3 0 0 14 Jan 23

Stars Are Born (IRE) 3 0 0 26 Oct 22

Never Just A Dream (IRE) 3 2 2 18 Oct 22

Nibras Rainbow (IRE) 3 1 1 29 Sep 22

The 60 most-raced of 130 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

0000718194191700

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

45% of all rides
7.9% SR · A/E 0.56

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 89 7 7.9% −54.02

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

Archived wins

£949k

Prize money

2018

Best season · 26 wins

Baron Bolt (GB) — William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ayr · Sep 2018 · Class 2

£80,890

Muntadab (IRE) — crownhotel-bawtry.com Optional Claiming Handicap Doncaster · Oct 2018 · Class 2

£18,675

Never Just A Dream (IRE) — Talksport Download The App EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Newcastle (AW) · Oct 2022 · Class 2

£16,200

Notable horses

Seamster (GB) Compas Scoobie (GB) Fuwairt (IRE) Bungee Jump (IRE) Bighearted (GB) Maori Bob (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Iffraaj (GB) 25% · 3–12

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,939 runs since 2008 (1,089 horses).

Sea The Stars (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,915 runs since 2008 (1,104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 452. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,807 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

No Nay Never (USA) 33.3% · 2–6

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,284 runs since 2008 (703 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 608. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 184.

Showcasing (GB) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,556 runs since 2008 (995 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.

The Gurkha (IRE) 33.3% · 2–6

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,020 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 110.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 856 · newest first

The latest 50 of 856 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 September 2015 to 10 August 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Aug 24 Haydock Spectacular Style (GB)T: Roger Varian Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 9th 17/2

08 Aug 24 Yarmouth Moakadd (IRE)T: Roger Varian Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 7/2

03 Aug 24 Thirsk Regimental Code (USA)T: Roger Varian British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 4th 16/1

20 Jul 24 Doncaster Moakadd (IRE)T: Roger Varian Get The Inside Track With Raceday-Ready HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 4th 11/2F

07 Jun 24 Brighton Pride Of Nepal (GB)T: Jeremy Scott AK Bets Big Prices Big Limits 'Confined' HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 17/2

04 Jun 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Cloch Nua (GB)T: Stella Barclay Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 50/1

04 Jun 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Balqaa (GB)T: Stella Barclay Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 12/1

24 May 24 Pontefract Esprit Queen (GB)T: Roger Varian Northern Commercials, Commercial Vehicles From Commercial People Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 9/2

18 May 24 Doncaster Sanat (IRE)T: Roger Varian Yates Drywall Limited Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 4th 28/1

05 May 24 Salisbury Sanat (IRE)T: Roger Varian Side Glance Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 9/2

04 May 24 Thirsk Nartaji (GB)T: Roger Varian Vickers.Bet Independent Family-Owned Bookmaker EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 13/2

02 May 24 Lingfield (AW) Bonkersinabundance (IRE)T: Roger Varian Get Raceday Ready HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 20/1

30 Apr 24 Brighton Exceed Now (IRE)T: Roger Varian Streamline 202020 Leading The Way Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 3/1

26 Apr 24 Newcastle (AW) Blue Virtue (IRE)T: Roger Varian Roflow Supporting ABF & SSAFA Charities Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 10/3

16 Apr 24 Newcastle (AW) Exceed Now (IRE)T: Roger Varian Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 4/1

18 Mar 24 Newcastle (AW) Forever Noah (GB)T: Roger Varian Find More Big Deals At Betuk Novice Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 5/2

01 Mar 24 Lingfield (AW) Dragon Icon (IRE)T: Roger Varian BetUK AWC Middle Distance Trial HandicapClass 2 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 5/1

15 Feb 24 Chelmsford City (AW) Moreginplease (GB)T: John Ryan Family Funday 29th March HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 8/1

07 Feb 24 Kempton (AW) Dragon Icon (IRE)T: Roger Varian Unibet Zero% Mission HandicapClass 2 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 9/1

03 Feb 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Moreginplease (GB)T: John Ryan BetMGM: It's Showtime HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Cameron Noble's strike rate?: Cameron Noble has won 19 of 196 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Cameron Noble do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 0 wins from 31 rides (0%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Cameron Noble ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 89 rides since 2022 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (7.9%).
What is Cameron Noble's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 194 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.