What is Cameron Noble's strike rate?

Cameron Noble has won 93 of 856 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Cameron Noble do best at?

Doncaster by strike rate: 5 wins from 34 rides (14.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Cameron Noble ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 144 rides since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.5%).

What is Cameron Noble's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 851 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Cameron Noble

856 rides in the lifetime window · 527 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Aug 2024 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

93–856

Wins / Runs

10.9%

Strike rate

n=856

246 (29%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=851 · 0.82 incl. margin

−214.16

£1 level stake

n=856 at SP · −25.0%

£949k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (110 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 856 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul 31.3% when favourite Roger Varian: 12.5% from 144 LTO winners: 15.5% Claiming: 11.8% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (6.3% over 95 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.5% (n=110, Fair A/E 0.77). Roger Varian supplies 17% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.5%, A/E 0.78). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.5%, n=80) and on Soft going (16.4%, n=67). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 6.3% over 64 rides, 4.6pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Seamster (GB) — 6 wins from 28 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.6%−0.3

n=527 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −128.62

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.5%+4.6

n=110 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −29.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.2%−2.7

n=98 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +16.08

When favourite

31.3%

n=96 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −13.60

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.8%+0.9

n=637 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −114.36

Big fields · 14+ runners

11.3%+0.4

n=97 · A/E 1.70 · £1 +30.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.9

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 17.5% vs 10.9% · n=80

With Michael Bell 17% vs 10.9% · n=100

On Soft going 16.4% vs 10.9% · n=67

On last-time-out winners 15.5% vs 10.9% · n=110

At Wolverhampton (AW) 6.3% vs 10.9% · n=95

Off a 61-180-day break 6.3% vs 10.9% · n=64

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 34.3% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 366 33 9% −212.83

Good to Firm 188 22 11.7% +23.28

Good 134 14 10.4% −16.25

Good to Soft 80 10 12.5% −27.00

Soft 67 11 16.4% +1.81

Heavy 13 3 23.1% +24.83

Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 95 6 6.3% −68.52

Newcastle (AW) 65 6 9.2% −32.63

Kempton (AW) 65 7 10.8% −36.76

Chelmsford City (AW) 61 6 9.8% −33.63

Lingfield (AW) 60 8 13.3% −21.29

Yarmouth 54 6 11.1% −7.25

Doncaster 34 5 14.7% −5.75

Leicester 27 1 3.7% −21.50

Windsor 25 3 12% +9.00

Nottingham 24 1 4.2% −7.00

Bath 23 2 8.7% −15.75

Newmarket 21 4 19% +14.50

Brighton 21 2 9.5% +12.00

Southwell (AW) 20 0 0% −20.00

Newmarket 20 2 10% −10.62

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 317 39 12.3% −49.18

Class 6 222 22 9.9% −51.43

Class 4 202 20 9.9% −96.55

Class 3 62 6 9.7% −35.50

Class 2 44 6 13.6% +27.50

Class 1 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 114 31 27.2% 0.95 −29.69

2nd–3rd fav 206 35 17% 1.03 −13.47

4th–6th fav 283 19 6.7% 0.81 −121.00

7th+ in betting 253 8 3.2% 0.97 −50.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Seamster (GB) 28 6 15 18 Jul 19

Fuwairt (IRE) 14 3 5 23 Jan 21

Bungee Jump (IRE) 11 3 7 3 Oct 18

Azets (GB) 8 1 3 20 Sep 21

Arabian Jazz (IRE) 8 1 3 21 Sep 19

One Pekan (IRE) 8 0 2 16 Jun 16

Geetanjali (IRE) 7 1 4 31 Oct 19

Bighearted (GB) 7 3 6 7 Oct 19

Compas Scoobie (GB) 7 4 5 18 Oct 18

Pride Of Nepal (GB) 6 2 3 7 Jun 24

Vape (GB) 6 1 3 30 Apr 21

Mr Buttons (IRE) 6 0 2 1 Nov 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 527 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1810681115157101098

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

17% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 0.78

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 144 18 12.5% −65.82

Michael Bell 100 17 17% −15.00

David Loughnane 84 10 11.9% −15.37

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→

Archived wins

£949k

Prize money

2018

Best season · 26 wins

Baron Bolt (GB) — William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ayr · Sep 2018 · Class 2

£80,890

Muntadab (IRE) — crownhotel-bawtry.com Optional Claiming Handicap Doncaster · Oct 2018 · Class 2

£18,675

Never Just A Dream (IRE) — Talksport Download The App EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Newcastle (AW) · Oct 2022 · Class 2

£16,200

Notable horses

Seamster (GB) Compas Scoobie (GB) Fuwairt (IRE) Bungee Jump (IRE) Bighearted (GB) Maori Bob (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Pivotal (GB) 18.4% · 7–38

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,789 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Dark Angel (IRE) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 19.2% · 5–26

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,871 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Showcasing (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,660 runs since 2014 (1,000 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Arcano (IRE) 20% · 4–20

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,647 runs since 2014 (262 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 147.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 856 · newest first

The latest 50 of 856 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 September 2015 to 10 August 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Aug 24 Haydock Spectacular Style (GB)T: Roger Varian Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 9th 17/2

08 Aug 24 Yarmouth Moakadd (IRE)T: Roger Varian Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 7/2

03 Aug 24 Thirsk Regimental Code (USA)T: Roger Varian British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 4th 16/1

20 Jul 24 Doncaster Moakadd (IRE)T: Roger Varian Get The Inside Track With Raceday-Ready HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 4th 11/2F

07 Jun 24 Brighton Pride Of Nepal (GB)T: Jeremy Scott AK Bets Big Prices Big Limits 'Confined' HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 17/2

04 Jun 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Cloch Nua (GB)T: Stella Barclay Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 50/1

04 Jun 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Balqaa (GB)T: Stella Barclay Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 12/1

24 May 24 Pontefract Esprit Queen (GB)T: Roger Varian Northern Commercials, Commercial Vehicles From Commercial People Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 9/2

18 May 24 Doncaster Sanat (IRE)T: Roger Varian Yates Drywall Limited Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 4th 28/1

05 May 24 Salisbury Sanat (IRE)T: Roger Varian Side Glance Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 9/2

04 May 24 Thirsk Nartaji (GB)T: Roger Varian Vickers.Bet Independent Family-Owned Bookmaker EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 13/2

02 May 24 Lingfield (AW) Bonkersinabundance (IRE)T: Roger Varian Get Raceday Ready HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 20/1

30 Apr 24 Brighton Exceed Now (IRE)T: Roger Varian Streamline 202020 Leading The Way Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 3/1

26 Apr 24 Newcastle (AW) Blue Virtue (IRE)T: Roger Varian Roflow Supporting ABF & SSAFA Charities Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 10/3

16 Apr 24 Newcastle (AW) Exceed Now (IRE)T: Roger Varian Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 4/1

18 Mar 24 Newcastle (AW) Forever Noah (GB)T: Roger Varian Find More Big Deals At Betuk Novice Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 5/2

01 Mar 24 Lingfield (AW) Dragon Icon (IRE)T: Roger Varian BetUK AWC Middle Distance Trial HandicapClass 2 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 5/1

15 Feb 24 Chelmsford City (AW) Moreginplease (GB)T: John Ryan Family Funday 29th March HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 8/1

07 Feb 24 Kempton (AW) Dragon Icon (IRE)T: Roger Varian Unibet Zero% Mission HandicapClass 2 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 9/1

03 Feb 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Moreginplease (GB)T: John Ryan BetMGM: It's Showtime HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Cameron Noble's strike rate?: Cameron Noble has won 93 of 856 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Cameron Noble do best at?: Doncaster by strike rate: 5 wins from 34 rides (14.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Cameron Noble ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 144 rides since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.5%).
What is Cameron Noble's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 851 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.