Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.21).
Deterministic profile computed from 109 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 8 Nov 2026
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8.7% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.86). The yard also reads well over 6f – 7f (22.5%, n=40). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 9.7% over 31 runners, 5.9pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte at Longchamp (FR) (Sep 2023, £35,398).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.7%−6.9
n=46 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −29.66
New recruits · first run for the yard
13.3%−2.3
n=15 · A/E 1.44 · £1 −4.98
Debutants · first career start
12.9%−2.7
n=31 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −8.20
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5.9%−9.7
n=17 · A/E 0.41 · £1 −14.38
When favourite
50%
n=14 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +6.45
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
33.3%+17.7
n=6 · A/E 2.72 · £1 +2.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%−8.5
n=28 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −9.30
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Vaclav Janacek29.7% vs 15.6% · n=37
Over 6f – 7f22.5% vs 15.6% · n=40
In Class 19.7% vs 15.6% · n=31
Off a break of 180+ days10% vs 15.6% · n=30
With a new jockey booking12.2% vs 15.6% · n=82
On Good to Soft going11.8% vs 15.6% · n=34
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 7.1% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft34411.8%−3.95
Good29310.3%−19.23
Soft25520%−10.87
Standard (AW)16318.8%−1.30
Heavy4250%+11.80
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)15320%−0.30
Deauville (FR)1500%−15.00
Longchamp (FR)15213.3%−1.30
Toulouse (FR)13215.4%−6.25
Dax (FR)12433.3%−2.00
La Teste De Buch (FR)800%−8.00
Mont-De-Marsan (FR)8225%−0.50
Fontainebleau (FR)400%−4.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)3133.3%+5.40
Tarbes (FR)3266.7%+13.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)3133.3%+4.40
Newbury200%−2.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)200%−2.00
Goodwood100%−1.00
Newmarket100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 13139.7%−9.68
Class 314321.4%−6.62
Class 45240%+11.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite15746.7%1.58+5.45
2nd–3rd fav34514.7%0.86−12.10
4th–6th fav30413.3%1.45+1.80
7th+ in betting3013.3%0.93−19.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f40922.5%+2.76
1m2f – 1m4f34617.6%−5.91
1m – 1m1f2727.4%−13.40
Under 6f500%−5.00
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221700%−17.00
202310220%+4.00
202413430.8%+12.00
20252314.3%−17.80
2026461021.7%−5.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1600%−16.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners44511.4%−21.31
11-13 runners26726.9%+11.60
14-16 runners2229.1%−11.00
5-7 runners12325%+1.16
17+ runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 51 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 51 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ralph Beckett (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
2 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·100100000826721017
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
34
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£715k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 10 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Naranco (GB) — La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte (4yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Sep 2023 · Group 3
£35,398
Bulnes (IRE) — Grand Criterium de Bordeaux - Prix du Hong Kong Jockey Club () (2yo) (Turf) Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR) · Oct 2024 · Listed
£26,087
The Way Of Bonnie (IRE) — Prix Arcangues () (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Dec 2021 · Listed
Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,994 runs since 2010 (1,093 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 226 · newest first
The latest 50 of 226 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 November 2007 to 26 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is G Arizkorreta Elosegui's strike rate?
G Arizkorreta Elosegui has won 17 of 109 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.6% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is G Arizkorreta Elosegui in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is G Arizkorreta Elosegui's Fair A/E?
1.21, from 109 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
G Arizkorreta Elosegui·SR 15.6%·A/E 1.21
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