What is D J Casey's strike rate?

D J Casey has won 209 of 2,671 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does D J Casey do best at?

Killarney by strike rate: 15 wins from 113 rides (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does D J Casey ride most for?

C F Swan, with 650 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (8%).

What is D J Casey's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 2,665 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

D J Casey

2,671 rides in the lifetime window · 1,139 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2015 98% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

209–2,671

Wins / Runs

7.8%

Strike rate

n=2,671

658 (25%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=2,665 · 0.69 incl. margin

−1,345.20

£1 level stake

n=2,670 at SP · −50.4%

£4.57m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 330 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (283 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,671 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired May–Sep 30.7% when favourite C F Swan: 8% from 650 LTO winners: 13.1% Rode the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Kilbeggan (21.2%, n=52), Ballinrobe (18.3%, n=60) and Roscommon (16.7%, n=48) — all clear of the rider's 7.8% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (0% over 52 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.1% (n=283, Fair A/E 0.93), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 4.8% (n=1,025, Fair A/E 0.71). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 7% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −253.27 to a £1 stake over 440 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. C F Swan supplied 24% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8%, A/E 0.85). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (15%, n=100). 62 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase at Leopardstown (Feb 2005, £109,800). The standout partner of the record was Baily Green (IRE) — 8 wins from 24 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired May–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.8%−3.0

n=1,025 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −653.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.1%+5.3

n=283 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −129.13

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.2%−0.6

n=568 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −277.06

When favourite

30.7%

n=215 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −41.04

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.8%−2.0

n=1,616 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −909.94

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7%−0.8

n=440 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −253.27

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With John E Kiely 30% vs 7.8% · n=30

At Kilbeggan 21.2% vs 7.8% · n=52

At Ballinrobe 18.3% vs 7.8% · n=60

At Roscommon 16.7% vs 7.8% · n=48

Off a 0-7-day break 15% vs 7.8% · n=100

At Cheltenham 0% vs 7.8% · n=52

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,705 108 6.3% −1,010.94

Chase 908 97 10.7% −292.51

Flat 52 4 7.7% −35.75

NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 908 62 6.8% −509.10

Heavy 664 46 6.9% −451.71

Good 624 62 9.9% −138.69

Good to Soft 247 15 6.1% −160.82

Good to Firm 184 18 9.8% −67.46

Firm 27 4 14.8% −6.42

Standard (AW) 17 2 11.8% −11.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 264 11 4.2% −187.52

Fairyhouse 232 15 6.5% −130.12

Navan 180 10 5.6% −98.60

Cork 169 12 7.1% −105.55

Leopardstown 147 9 6.1% −84.42

Limerick 140 15 10.7% −65.79

Naas 124 3 2.4% −109.25

Galway 123 10 8.1% −69.21

Thurles 121 8 6.6% −60.75

Killarney 113 15 13.3% −6.85

Gowran Park 106 7 6.6% −60.00

Clonmel 105 8 7.6% −60.25

Tramore 101 12 11.9% −32.67

Listowel 76 7 9.2% −39.90

Down Royal 75 6 8% −22.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 492 31 6.3% −305.27

Class 2 14 1 7.1% −4.00

Class 4 10 1 10% −7.75

Class 3 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 253 72 28.5% 1.06 −55.79

2nd–3rd fav 513 77 15% 1.09 −113.41

4th–6th fav 801 39 4.9% 0.70 −422.00

7th+ in betting 1,103 21 1.9% 0.55 −754.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.5% completed · 2,613 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 908 74.4% 69 24 136 1 2

Hurdle 1,705 89.8% 21 16 128 5 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fever Pitch (IRE) 30 2 12 11 May 15

Prince Of Fire (GER) 25 6 12 15 Jul 13

Gentleman Duke (IRE) 24 4 8 14 Jul 15

Baily Green (IRE) 24 8 11 10 Feb 15

Your Busy (IRE) 19 3 7 11 Apr 15

Western Man (IRE) 18 0 3 27 Nov 14

Pass The Hat (GB) 17 2 6 25 Aug 15

Rayhani (USA) 17 3 4 8 Oct 13

Schelm (GER) 17 3 6 28 Oct 12

Valain (IRE) 17 2 6 1 Aug 11

Darling Harbour (FR) 16 2 3 9 May 11

Second Glance (IRE) 16 1 8 12 Feb 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,139 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

985410991212866

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardC F Swan

24% of all rides
8% SR · A/E 0.85

TrainerRWSR£1

C F Swan 650 52 8% −330.32

A L T Moore 295 21 7.1% −143.98

W P Mullins 281 35 12.5% −104.24

J A Nash 156 11 7.1% −70.50

M F Morris 90 10 11.1% −37.56

A J Martin 70 4 5.7% −40.75

Ronald O'Leary 62 4 6.5% −28.00

Patrick J Flynn 45 4 8.9% −15.00

Eoin Griffin 38 3 7.9% −17.00

Conor O'Dwyer 36 0 0% −36.00

T J Taaffe 31 1 3.2% −27.50

John E Kiely 30 9 30% −0.53

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

353

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.93m

Prize money

2007

Best season · 70 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Rule Supreme (IRE) — Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2005 · Grade 1

£109,800

Kempes (IRE) — Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2011 · Grade 1

£103,500

Emmpat (IRE) — Menolly Homes Handicap Hurdle Fairyhouse · Apr 2007 · Grade B

£84,500

Notable horses

Baily Green (IRE) Prince Of Fire (GER) Head Of The Posse (IRE) Kalderon (GER) Gentleman Duke (IRE) On The Other Hand (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 6.6% · 7–106

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

King's Theatre (IRE) 17.2% · 17–99

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Oscar (IRE) 4.1% · 4–97

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Milan (GB) 2.4% · 2–85

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,876 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 9.5% · 8–84

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Supreme Leader (GB) 11.5% · 7–61

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,984 runs since 2008 (349 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,912 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,912 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2005 to 16 September 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Sep 15 Listowel Long Dog (GB)T: W P Mullins Ballygarry House Hotel Novice Hurdle20f · Heavy · 4 ran 1st 1/6F

16 Sep 15 Listowel Alelchi Inois (FR)T: W P Mullins Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A)24f · Heavy · 17 ran PU 16/1

13 Sep 15 Listowel (IRE) Sea Beat (GB)T: A L T Moore Cheestrings Beginners Chase20f · Soft · 11 ran F 11/4F

13 Sep 15 Listowel (IRE) Cardinal Palace (IRE)T: J A Nash Kerrymaid Hurdle16f · Soft · 4 ran 2nd 6/1

09 Sep 15 Galway Mitebeall Forluck (GB)T: A L T Moore Guinness Handicap Chase18f · Good · 10 ran 4th 8/1

25 Aug 15 Ballinrobe Dandridge (GB)T: A L T Moore Corrib Oil Handicap Chase17f · Soft To Heavy · 7 ran F 3/1F

25 Aug 15 Ballinrobe Pass The Hat (GB)T: A L T Moore Treacy's Pharmacy Chase17f · Soft To Heavy · 7 ran 2nd 11/2

25 Aug 15 Ballinrobe Olor (IRE)T: Norman Lee Maloney & Matthews Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23.5f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 13th 16/1

13 Aug 15 Tramore Dandridge (GB)T: A L T Moore Noel Cummins Bookmaker Beginners Chase16f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 4/1

02 Aug 15 Galway Mitebeall Forluck (GB)T: A L T Moore Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase18f · Soft · 17 ran UR 20/1

02 Aug 15 Galway Our Sox (IRE)T: A J Martin Galway Shopping Centre Handicap Hurdle (81-123)23.5f · Soft · 19 ran 16th 10/1

01 Aug 15 Galway Massini's Trap (IRE)T: J A Nash Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (grade B)21.5f · Yielding · 19 ran 3rd 33/1

29 Jul 15 Galway Perfect Gentleman (IRE)T: W P Mullins thetote.com Galway Plate (Grade A Handicap Chase)22.5f · Good · 22 ran 7th 25/1

17 Jul 15 Kilbeggan Boston Oscar (IRE)T: D J Barry Coola Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 14 ran 13th 25/1

16 Jul 15 Killarney Dandridge (GB)T: A L T Moore Dawn Hi + Lo Milk Beginners Chase17f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 12/1

16 Jul 15 Killarney Cassells Rock (IRE)T: A J Martin Killarney Grand Live Music Venue Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 10/1

16 Jul 15 Killarney Cardinal Palace (IRE)T: J A Nash Aherns Bmw Castleisland Novice Hurdle17f · Good · 7 ran 5th 6/4F

15 Jul 15 Killarney Pass The Hat (GB)T: A L T Moore Bunkers Bar And Restaurant Killorglin Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 9 ran 4th 7/1

14 Jul 15 Killarney Gentleman Duke (IRE)T: A L T Moore Bourn Vincent Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade C)17f · Good · 14 ran 9th 8/1

11 Jul 15 Tipperary Our Sox (IRE)T: A J Martin Costello's Tavern Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24f · Good · 20 ran 1st 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is D J Casey's strike rate?: D J Casey has won 209 of 2,671 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does D J Casey do best at?: Killarney by strike rate: 15 wins from 113 rides (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does D J Casey ride most for?: C F Swan, with 650 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (8%).
What is D J Casey's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 2,665 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.