What is Declan McDonogh's strike rate?

Declan McDonogh has won 886 of 8,957 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Declan McDonogh do best at?

Killarney by strike rate: 43 wins from 214 rides (20.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Declan McDonogh ride most for?

Joseph Patrick O'Brien, with 1,617 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 176 (10.9%).

Is Declan McDonogh in form?

In the last 14 days: 23 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 9.9% since 2008.

What is Declan McDonogh's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 8,946 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Declan McDonogh

8,957 rides in the lifetime window · 3,790 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Rides today 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

886–8,957

Wins / Runs

9.9%

Strike rate

n=8,957

2,680 (30%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=8,946 · 0.77 incl. margin

−2,612.71

£1 level stake

n=8,957 at SP · −29.2%

£20.9m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 470 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (850 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 8,957 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Mar 30.1% when favourite Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 10.9% from 1,617 LTO winners: 15.3% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Killarney (20.1%, n=214), clear of the rider's 9.9% baseline. It is weakest at Ascot (0% over 30 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.3% (n=850, Fair A/E 1.03). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 8.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −379.17 to a £1 stake over 1,171 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 0 from 23 rides in the last 14 days (0%, 9.9pts below the 9.9% baseline). Joseph Patrick O'Brien supplies 18% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.9%, A/E 0.89). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (16.5%, n=577). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 0% over 42 rides, 9.9pts below the baseline. 132 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Shelbourne Hotel Goffs Million at Curragh (Sep 2006, £985,000). The standout partner of the record: Mustameet (USA) — 7 wins from 19 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.9%−2.0

n=3,694 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −1,205.74

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.3%+5.4

n=850 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −189.89

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9%−0.9

n=1,532 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −438.54

When favourite

30.1%

n=873 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −132.14

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

0%−9.9

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.3%−2.6

n=3,830 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −1,426.89

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.4%−1.5

n=1,171 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −379.17

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Killarney 20.1% vs 9.9% · n=214

With D K Weld 18.1% vs 9.9% · n=265

Off a 0-7-day break 16.5% vs 9.9% · n=577

In Class 2 0% vs 9.9% · n=42

On last-time-out winners 15.3% vs 9.9% · n=850

At Ascot 0% vs 9.9% · n=30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 2,213 203 9.2% −515.32

Soft 2,202 209 9.5% −747.40

Standard (AW) 1,906 195 10.2% −589.03

Good to Firm 1,069 116 10.9% −344.90

Heavy 840 89 10.6% −212.93

Good to Soft 668 64 9.6% −214.23

Firm 59 10 16.9% +11.10

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 1,866 193 10.3% −568.03

Curragh 1,416 99 7% −650.06

Leopardstown 921 85 9.2% −234.00

Naas 569 40 7% −218.18

Gowran Park 536 41 7.6% −219.58

Navan 503 48 9.5% −144.33

Cork 419 42 10% −102.00

Galway 350 35 10% −134.59

Tipperary 310 43 13.9% −67.64

Fairyhouse 281 29 10.3% −74.36

Roscommon 257 35 13.6% −50.35

Killarney 214 43 20.1% +89.85

Limerick 212 25 11.8% −3.63

Down Royal 201 25 12.4% −15.28

Listowel 185 20 10.8% −60.52

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 1,171 98 8.4% −379.17

Class 2 42 0 0% −42.00

Class 4 9 1 11.1% +2.00

Class 3 8 1 12.5% +0.50

Class 5 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,036 297 28.7% 1.03 −147.64

2nd–3rd fav 2,145 296 13.8% 0.91 −627.07

4th–6th fav 2,788 201 7.2% 0.96 −670.00

7th+ in betting 2,988 92 3.1% 0.86 −1,168.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 3,160 311 9.8% −962.87

1m – 1m1f 2,325 220 9.5% −701.75

1m2f – 1m4f 2,183 213 9.8% −797.54

Under 6f 724 90 12.4% −2.72

1m5f – 2m 537 49 9.1% −160.66

2m1f – 2m4f 28 3 10.7% +12.83

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 610 54 8.9% −278.44

2009 614 56 9.1% −230.98

2010 555 55 9.9% −155.44

2011 495 44 8.9% −196.51

2012 456 41 9% −165.41

2013 369 45 12.2% −55.39

2014 392 42 10.7% −112.13

2015 418 46 11% −85.91

2016 490 56 11.4% −74.06

2017 450 43 9.6% −75.72

2018 525 72 13.7% −82.30

2019 361 27 7.5% −24.65

2020 466 49 10.5% −168.39

2021 493 52 10.5% −147.57

2022 430 57 13.3% +26.23

2023 498 34 6.8% −238.47

2024 471 44 9.3% −154.50

2025 424 31 7.3% −210.49

2026 440 38 8.6% −182.58

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,038 349 8.6% −1,046.72

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 2,642 216 8.2% −904.44

11-13 runners 2,174 201 9.2% −592.17

8-10 runners 1,933 233 12.1% −368.61

17+ runners 1,188 64 5.4% −522.45

5-7 runners 932 139 14.9% −233.33

2-4 runners 88 33 37.5% +8.29

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

An Saighdiur (IRE) 34 5 9 14 Oct 17

Ucanchoose (IRE) 33 6 11 22 Sep 16

Oor Jock (IRE) 31 3 13 6 May 18

Sharjah (IRE) 30 5 15 4 May 17

Bubbly Bellini (IRE) 26 6 10 5 Apr 17

Mt Weather (IRE) 25 5 10 3 Sep 13

Choose Me (IRE) 21 2 9 6 Nov 10

Linus Larrabee (IRE) 20 2 6 11 Jun 22

Beau Satchel (GB) 19 3 8 23 Aug 17

Sors (IRE) 19 2 9 27 May 17

Xebec (USA) 19 3 8 9 Oct 16

Snapraeterea (IRE) 18 4 7 22 Oct 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 3,790 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 23 0% · −9.9pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

Lifetime base9.9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

21131191110131088812

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJoseph Patrick O'Brien

18% of all rides
10.9% SR · A/E 0.89

TrainerRWSR£1

Joseph Patrick O'Brien 1,617 176 10.9% −563.76

Kevin Prendergast 1,069 121 11.3% −395.34

John M Oxx 628 83 13.2% −181.97

Andrew Slattery 326 46 14.1% −11.29

Adrian McGuinness 311 29 9.3% −94.57

Gordon Elliott 301 32 10.6% −30.34

D K Weld 265 48 18.1% −51.86

Charles O'Brien 261 20 7.7% −103.80

Edward Lynam 256 23 9% −113.12

Kieran P Cotter 200 28 14% +12.19

W McCreery 148 6 4.1% −107.25

J S Bolger 148 14 9.5% −18.42

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,118

Archived wins

132

Pattern / graded wins

£27.5m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 93 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Miss Beatrix (IRE) — Shelbourne Hotel Goffs Million Curragh · Sep 2006

£985,000

Maarek (GB) — Qatar Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (2yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2013 · Group 1

£162,594

Kingsfort (USA) — Ladbrokes.com Vincent O'brien National Stakes (group 1) Curragh · Sep 2009 · Group 1

£150,100

Notable horses

Mustameet (USA) Miracle Ridge (IRE) Ucanchoose (IRE) Bubbly Bellini (IRE) Creggs Pipes (IRE) An Saighdiur (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Acclamation (GB) 10.7% · 19–177

Progeny have won 10% of 19,719 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.6% · 17–147

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Sea The Stars (IRE) 11.1% · 15–135

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,992 runs since 2013 (1,119 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 460. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Shamardal (USA) 14.4% · 19–132

Progeny have won 14.7% of 10,414 runs since 2009 (1,008 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.7% from 1,289. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 475.

Zoffany (IRE) 9.1% · 12–132

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,787 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Galileo (IRE) 9.7% · 12–124

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,201 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 10,678 · newest first

The latest 50 of 10,678 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 March 2005 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Star Harbour (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness BAR 1 Betting 'Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight' Handicap10.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 4/1

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Sangreal (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien BAR 1 Betting 'Proud Supporter Of Irish Racing' Maiden10.5f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 1/2F

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Green Sparkle (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap8f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 12/1

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Sharpe Ratio (USA)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race6f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 18/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Highlander Addict (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 25/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Pennsylvania Ave (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 9/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Queen Creek (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Maiden8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 20/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dear Theodosia (IRE)T: Daniel McLoughlin Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Nursery Handicap6f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Sovereign Cry (IRE)T: Daniel James Murphy Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 17/2

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Una Matata (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness BAR 1 Betting Bet Builder Boost Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 13/2

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Exquisite Acclaim (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness BAR 1 Betting '2Up Early Payout' Handicap8f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 10/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Warrior Of Siam (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 20/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dancing Saxon (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 13/2

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Corsican Night (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 20/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Scarlet Dream (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 14/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Thumama Glory (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 100/30

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Golden Splendour (GB)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 8th 10/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Iamimmaculate (IRE)T: G. O'Leary Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 6th 12/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Sky Captain (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 9/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Real Force (GB)T: G. O'Leary Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 10th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 1 Nov 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 11 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Declan McDonogh's strike rate?: Declan McDonogh has won 886 of 8,957 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Declan McDonogh do best at?: Killarney by strike rate: 43 wins from 214 rides (20.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Declan McDonogh ride most for?: Joseph Patrick O'Brien, with 1,617 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 176 (10.9%).
Is Declan McDonogh in form?: In the last 14 days: 23 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 9.9% since 2008.
What is Declan McDonogh's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 8,946 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.