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Trainer profile

Kieran P Cotter

537 runners in the last 5 seasons · 94 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
35–537
Wins / Runs
6.5%
Strike rate
n=537
92 (17%)
Placed
0.94
Fair A/E
n=537 · 0.76 incl. margin
−172.93
£1 level stake
n=537 at SP · −32.2%
£848k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.94). In Group and Graded company the record reads 13% (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 537 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun Fresh horses: 8.1% Declan McDonogh: 12.1% from 99 Claiming riders: 8.7% Group/Graded: 12.9%
The read

In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 12.9% (n=31, Fair A/E 1.42). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 8.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.27 and +3.91 to a £1 stake over 149 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Declan McDonogh rides 18% of the entries and beats the yard's average (12.1% vs 6.5%, A/E 1.30) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 1 (12.9%, n=31). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 1% over 96 runners, 5.5pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes at Newmarket (Oct 2023, £70,888). The stable star of the record: Polly Douglas (IRE) — 7 wins from 59 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.1%+1.6
n=86 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −7.17
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.5
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
4.2%−2.3
n=71 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −45.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.8%+0.3
n=44 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
8.3%+1.8
n=24 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −10.67
When favourite
20%
n=20 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −4.26
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.7%+2.2
n=149 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +3.91
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
12.9%+6.4
n=31 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +9.33

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 16.7% vs 6.5% · n=36
With Declan McDonogh 12.1% vs 6.5% · n=99
Off a 8-14-day break 1% vs 6.5% · n=96
With Gavin Ryan 0% vs 6.5% · n=36
In Class 1 12.9% vs 6.5% · n=31
In Group / Graded races 12.9% vs 6.5% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 163 9 5.5% −85.17
Good 151 9 6% −37.67
Standard (AW) 115 9 7.8% −12.92
Good to Soft 48 5 10.4% +1.83
Heavy 39 2 5.1% −27.00
Good to Firm 21 1 4.8% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 115 9 7.8% −12.92
Curragh 100 2 2% −70.00
Cork 63 5 7.9% +12.00
Naas 47 1 2.1% −40.50
Navan 41 3 7.3% −19.75
Tipperary 22 3 13.6% +12.25
Gowran Park 18 0 0% −18.00
Down Royal 18 3 16.7% +10.83
Galway 18 1 5.6% −10.00
Leopardstown 14 1 7.1% −4.00
Roscommon 14 0 0% −14.00
Bellewstown 14 1 7.1% −9.67
Fairyhouse 14 0 0% −14.00
Sligo 8 1 12.5% +7.00
Limerick 7 1 14.3% −1.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 31 4 12.9% +9.33
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 28 4 14.3% 0.67 −12.26
2nd–3rd fav 87 13 14.9% 0.96 −19.17
4th–6th fav 139 11 7.9% 1.06 −8.50
7th+ in betting 283 7 2.5% 0.96 −133.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Sam's Xpress (IRE)then Julia & Shelley Birkett 29 3 4 20 May 25
Uncle Albert (IRE)then Adrian Wintle 21 1 3 22 Apr 26
Martinelli (IRE) 20 2 7 4 Aug 25
Matilda Picotte (IRE) 18 4 10 6 Oct 24
Sturlasson (IRE)then John Ryan 17 1 4 13 Jun 25
Dun Na Sead (IRE)then Daniel James Murphy 17 3 7 3 Sep 23
Koniag (IRE) 15 2 7 27 Jan 25
Gerrit's Gem (IRE)then J G Coogan 14 3 4 16 Oct 25
Sommelier (GB)from Marco Botti 12 1 2 4 Oct 26
Tiny Bit (IRE)then Jarlath P Fahey 12 1 2 13 Oct 22
Jampa Ling (IRE) 11 0 2 5 Aug 26
Elora Prince (IRE)then Adrian Wintle 11 0 0 23 Apr 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 94 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch (3); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

28 have since run for another yard, most often for Daniel James Murphy (6) and Adrian Wintle (3); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
91294987248120
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDeclan McDonogh
18% of all rides
12.1% SR · A/E 1.30
RiderRWSR£1
Declan McDonogh 99 12 12.1% +4.16
R. P. Whelan 51 1 2% −39.00
Gavin Ryan 36 0 0% −36.00
Oisin McSweeney 35 4 11.4% +0.16
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
92
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£1.52m
Prize money
2020
Best season · 19 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Matilda Picotte (IRE) — Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Newmarket · Oct 2023 · Group 2
£70,888
Lord Dudley (IRE) — Mallow Handicap Cork · May 2022
£47,200
Matilda Picotte (IRE) — Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) Doncaster · Sep 2023 · Group 3
£45,368
Notable horses
Polly Douglas (IRE) A Step Too Far (IRE) Dash D'or (IRE) Matilda Picotte (IRE) Dun Na Sead (IRE) Pulse Of Shanghai (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dragon Pulse (IRE) 5.9% · 2–34
Progeny have won 8.9% of 4,260 runs since 2008 (320 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.3% from 570. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 363.
Sioux Nation (USA) 16.7% · 5–30
Progeny have won 12.4% of 2,866 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.2% from 425. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 576. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.8% from 189.
Fulbright (GB) 10.3% · 3–29
Progeny have won 6.7% of 627 runs since 2008 (52 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 9.9% from 213.
Invincible Army (IRE) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 10% of 1,627 runs since 2008 (163 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.7% from 150. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.5% from 399. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.8% from 251.
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 13.6% · 3–22
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,145 runs since 2008 (659 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,187.
Blue Point (IRE) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 14% of 3,383 runs since 2008 (412 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 17% from 335. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.7% from 206.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,191 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,191 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 April 2005 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Alandownunder (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 66/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Spinola Bear (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 25/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Boptothetop (IRE)J: R. P. Cleary Boyle Maiden10.5f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 100/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Earl Of Persia (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 125/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Imagine Glory (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 100/1
07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Siege Of Tyre (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Navan Racing Festival Hospitality On Sale Now Nursery Handicap6f · Yielding · 10 ran 8th 11/1
07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Kula Bula Boyo (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Buy Now & Save With The Real Deal Bundle Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 9th 150/1
05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Spinola Bear (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Carry Out Off-Licence Handicap8f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 28/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Nathan Crosse Business Plus Handicap6f · Soft · 22 ran 16th 14/1
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Alandownunder (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 7th 40/1
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Lion Of Fortune (IRE)J: R. P. Whelan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 7th 14/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Nathan Crosse Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap5f · Yielding · 20 ran 4th 40/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Shake It Out (GB)J: R. P. Whelan Market Square Monasterevin Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 50/1
17 Sep 26 Naas (IRE) Stellar Path (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap5f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 18/1
17 Sep 26 Naas (IRE) Siege Of Tyre (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap5f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 25/1
13 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap6f · Yielding · 24 ran 19th 100/1
09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Faithful Ardad (GB)J: Ronan Whelan Follow Us On Social Media Maiden8f · Good · 18 ran 13th 125/1
09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Follow Us On Instagram Handicap6f · Good · 22 ran 15th 25/1
30 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Spinola Bear (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Cork Maiden6f · Yielding · 16 ran 15th 100/1
30 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Faithful Ardad (GB)J: Declan McDonogh Cork Maiden6f · Yielding · 16 ran 12th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kieran P Cotter's strike rate?
Kieran P Cotter has won 35 of 537 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kieran P Cotter do best at?
Cork by strike rate: 5 wins from 63 runners (7.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kieran P Cotter?
Declan McDonogh, with 99 runners since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (12.1%).
Is Kieran P Cotter in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kieran P Cotter's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 537 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).