What is Ella McCain's strike rate?

Ella McCain has won 43 of 393 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ella McCain do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 8 wins from 31 rides (25.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ella McCain ride most for?

Tim Easterby, with 171 rides since 2008 — 44% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (11.1%).

What is Ella McCain's Fair A/E?

1.11, from 391 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ella McCain

393 rides in the lifetime window · 196 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Feb 2022 99% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

43–393

Wins / Runs

10.9%

Strike rate

n=393

126 (32%)

Placed

1.11

Fair A/E

n=391 · 0.95 incl. margin

−70.47

£1 level stake

n=393 at SP · −17.9%

£344k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.11). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (46 rides). Rides mostly for Tim Easterby — 44% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 393 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 24.2% when favourite Tim Easterby: 11.1% from 171 LTO winners: 17.4% Claiming: 11.3% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (25.8%, n=31), clear of the rider's 10.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.4% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.95), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.4% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.48). Tim Easterby supplies 44% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.1%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (29.3%, n=41) and on Good to Soft going (20.4%, n=49). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 53 rides, 10.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.55 across 89 rides (4.5% strike, −51.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Bollin Neil (GB) — 5 wins from 11 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.2%−2.7

n=196 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −80.18

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.4%+6.5

n=46 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −12.72

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.4%−8.5

n=42 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −34.00

When favourite

24.2%

n=33 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −5.79

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.3%+0.4

n=346 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −49.22

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.5%−5.4

n=73 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −42.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 1m5f – 2m 29.3% vs 10.9% · n=41

At Catterick 25.8% vs 10.9% · n=31

Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 10.9% · n=53

On Good to Soft going 20.4% vs 10.9% · n=49

With C&D winners 17.9% vs 10.9% · n=84

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 4.5% vs 10.9% · n=89

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 391 43 11% −68.47

Hurdle 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 107 10 9.3% −16.75

Good to Firm 86 7 8.1% −34.42

Good 82 6 7.3% −42.63

Soft 59 6 10.2% −21.30

Good to Soft 49 10 20.4% +29.25

Heavy 10 4 40% +15.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 54 6 11.1% +4.25

Carlisle 32 4 12.5% −4.00

Southwell (AW) 31 4 12.9% +1.00

Catterick 31 8 25.8% +26.33

Redcar 28 3 10.7% −13.17

York 23 1 4.3% −17.00

Newcastle (AW) 20 0 0% −20.00

Ripon 18 2 11.1% −5.50

Beverley 17 3 17.6% +11.00

Thirsk 17 2 11.8% +5.00

Haydock 17 2 11.8% −8.00

Doncaster 16 2 12.5% +6.00

Ayr 15 1 6.7% −9.00

Pontefract 15 0 0% −15.00

Nottingham 15 1 6.7% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 159 15 9.4% −36.00

Class 5 120 17 14.2% −13.92

Class 4 67 11 16.4% +26.45

Class 3 25 0 0% −25.00

Class 2 20 0 0% −20.00

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 38 9 23.7% 0.94 −6.29

2nd–3rd fav 90 16 17.8% 1.15 −2.68

4th–6th fav 120 12 10% 1.18 −8.50

7th+ in betting 145 6 4.1% 1.20 −53.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dark Confidant (IRE) 16 2 2 1 Jul 19

Poet's Dawn (GB) 12 2 4 2 Nov 21

Bollin Joan (GB) 12 2 4 9 Oct 21

Nacho (IRE) 11 2 5 18 Jan 22

Bollin Neil (GB) 11 5 7 2 Nov 21

Obee Jo (IRE) 10 3 7 26 Oct 21

Wade's Magic (GB) 8 3 8 26 Oct 21

Artistic Streak (GB) 8 3 4 13 Mar 21

Tawseef (IRE) 8 3 5 5 Aug 19

Gullane One (IRE) 7 1 2 25 Oct 21

Russco (IRE) 7 3 4 15 Oct 21

Balata Bay (GB) 7 0 0 14 Sep 20

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 196 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1100521111481113110

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardTim Easterby

44% of all rides
11.1% SR · A/E 0.98

TrainerRWSR£1

Tim Easterby 171 19 11.1% −36.84

Donald McCain 110 15 13.6% +17.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

£344k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 25 wins

Barnaby Brook (CAN) — Silk Series Lady Riders' Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Sep 2018 · Class 4

£6,728

Bollin Joan (GB) — Sash York Apprentice Handicap York · Jun 2021 · Class 4

£5,400

War Defender (GB) — Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Handicap Southwell (AW) · Nov 2020 · Class 4

£5,208

Notable horses

Bollin Neil (GB) Obee Jo (IRE) Wade's Magic (GB) Tawseef (IRE) Artistic Streak (GB) Russco (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 15.8% · 3–19

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,605 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Royal Applause (GB) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Poet's Voice (GB) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 10% of 6,046 runs since 2015 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 494. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.

Camacho (GB) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,327 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Haafhd (GB) 38.5% · 5–13

Progeny have won 10.9% of 4,753 runs since 2008 (305 horses).

Mount Nelson (GB) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 10% of 6,290 runs since 2012 (538 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 393 · newest first

The latest 50 of 393 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 14 July 2017 to 10 February 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Feb 22 Newcastle (AW) Dreamseller (IRE)T: Tim Easterby Mansionbet Proud Partners Of Awc Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 7th 9/1

10 Feb 22 Newcastle (AW) Stroxx (IRE)T: Tim Easterby Play 4 To Win At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 5th 13/2

25 Jan 22 Southwell (AW) Beach Break (GB)T: Donald McCain Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 16.5f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 6th 13/2

19 Jan 22 Southwell (AW) Kind Review (GB)T: Tim Easterby Betway HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 5/2

19 Jan 22 Southwell (AW) Zero Hour (GB)T: Donald McCain MansionBet Beaten By A Head Classified StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 11th 125/1

18 Jan 22 Southwell (AW) Nacho (IRE)T: Donald McCain Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 8th 16/1

13 Jan 22 Newcastle (AW) Dreamseller (IRE)T: Tim Easterby Mansionbet Proud Partners Of Awc HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 2nd 8/1

01 Jan 22 Southwell (AW) War Defender (GB)T: Tim Easterby MansionBet Beaten By A Head HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 9th 16/1

17 Dec 21 Southwell (AW) Beach Break (GB)T: Donald McCain Betway Casino HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 4th 6/1

03 Dec 21 Newcastle (AW) Dreamseller (IRE)T: Tim Easterby MansionBet Proud Partners Of AWC Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 18/1

08 Nov 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Grand Pianola (GB)T: Tim Easterby Betway Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 11/2

08 Nov 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Maylah (IRE)T: Donald McCain MansionBet Proud Partners Of AWC HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 16/1

02 Nov 21 Redcar Bollin Neil (GB)T: Tim Easterby EveryPoppyCounts HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 3/1F

02 Nov 21 Redcar Poet's Dawn (GB)T: Tim Easterby Try Racing TV For Free Now HandicapClass 3 · 10f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 20/1

02 Nov 21 Redcar True Blue Moon (IRE)T: Tim Easterby Racing TV Free For A Month HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 11/1

02 Nov 21 Redcar Golden George (IRE)T: Tim Easterby racingtv.com/freemonth British Stallions Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 125/1

26 Oct 21 Catterick Wade's Magic (GB)T: Tim Easterby Join RacingTV For The Jumps Season HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

26 Oct 21 Catterick Obee Jo (IRE)T: Tim Easterby Visit racingtv.com HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 7/1

26 Oct 21 Catterick Lord Torranaga (FR)T: Philip Kirby Millbry Hill HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Soft · 12 ran 2nd 7/2F

25 Oct 21 Redcar Cragside (GB)T: Tim Easterby Watch Race Replays At racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 6th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ella McCain's strike rate?: Ella McCain has won 43 of 393 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ella McCain do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 8 wins from 31 rides (25.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ella McCain ride most for?: Tim Easterby, with 171 rides since 2008 — 44% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (11.1%).
What is Ella McCain's Fair A/E?: 1.11, from 391 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.