Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.30). With a claiming rider up the record reads 16% (31 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 127 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 16.1%
The read
The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (22%, n=41) and on Standard (AW) going (18.1%, n=83). The record reads poorly at trips under 6f — 9.5% over 42 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Ron O (GB) — 8 wins from 31 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.7%−6.5
n=26 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.3%+0.1
n=7 · A/E 1.96 · £1 +3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−14.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−14.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−14.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=18 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −9.67
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
16.1%+1.9
n=31 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +20.25
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break22% vs 14.2% · n=41
At trips under 6f9.5% vs 14.2% · n=42
On Standard (AW) going18.1% vs 14.2% · n=83
With C&D winners17.8% vs 14.2% · n=45
Over 6f – 7f11.8% vs 14.2% · n=34
With a new jockey booking12.2% vs 14.2% · n=49
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)831518.1%+36.41
Good2000%−20.00
Good to Firm15213.3%+15.50
Good to Soft7114.3%+22.00
Soft200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW)54814.8%+16.41
Southwell (AW)27518.5%+4.50
Thirsk1300%−13.00
Redcar10220%+20.50
York5120%+24.00
Catterick400%−4.00
Musselburgh400%−4.00
Beverley300%−3.00
Ripon200%−2.00
Wolverhampton (AW)22100%+15.50
Ayr200%−2.00
Newmarket100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 650714%+28.33
Class 441614.6%+12.75
Class 31500%−15.00
Class 515426.7%+2.83
Class 26116.7%+23.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19421.1%0.85−6.92
2nd–3rd fav29517.2%1.06+0.33
4th–6th fav35514.3%1.71+9.50
7th+ in betting4449.1%2.63+49.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Under 6f4249.5%−21.92
6f – 7f34411.8%+19.25
1m – 1m1f29724.1%+29.08
1m2f – 1m4f21314.3%+26.50
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202244920.5%+39.58
202341512.2%+3.50
20242528%+11.50
2025300%−3.00
202614214.3%+0.33
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1161815.5%+62.91
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners54916.7%+52.75
8-10 runners45511.1%−15.50
14-16 runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners11327.3%+2.66
17+ runners5120%+24.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 9 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
11823101033886132533
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
40
Archived wins
£347k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ron O (GB) — Seat Unique Handicap York · Jun 2024 · Class 2
£36,078
Shape Up (IRE) — Handicap Southwell (AW) · Feb 2005 · Class 4
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,848 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 189. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.
Haafhd (GB)11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 10.9% of 4,750 runs since 2008 (305 horses).
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,761 runs since 2008 (799 horses).
Fastnet Rock (AUS)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,478 runs since 2008 (556 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 211.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 553 · newest first
The latest 50 of 553 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 6 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Ray Craggs's strike rate?
Ray Craggs has won 18 of 127 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ray Craggs do best at?
Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 54 runners (14.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Ray Craggs's Fair A/E?
1.30, from 127 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Ray Craggs·SR 14.2%·A/E 1.30
KTB
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