Fergus Gillard
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 29% (38 rides).
It is weakest at Exeter (6.1% over 33 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 28.9% (n=38, Fair A/E 1.38), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.5% (n=91, Fair A/E 0.61). David Pipe supplies 31% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.9%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well on Heavy going (17.5%, n=40). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.4% over 41 rides, 9.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 8-14-day break: Fair A/E 0.58 across 54 rides (5.6% strike, −41.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at Haydock (Nov 2020, £45,560). The standout partner of the record: Paricolor (FR) — 8 wins from 14 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2018→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 784 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 784 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 October 2018 to 23 April 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Fergus Gillard's strike rate?
- Fergus Gillard has won 51 of 445 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Fergus Gillard do best at?
- Wincanton by strike rate: 5 wins from 35 rides (14.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Fergus Gillard ride most for?
- David Pipe, with 140 rides since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.9%).
- What is Fergus Gillard's Fair A/E?
- 1.06, from 445 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.