Ian Burns
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 80 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.84). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (30 rides).
The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (10.8%, n=37), clear of the rider's 6.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 10% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.61). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 6.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −153.88 to a £1 stake over 272 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Michael Bell supplied 19% of the rides and beats the rider's average (13.8% vs 6.8%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 8-14-day break (11.6%, n=86) and in Class 5 (9.8%, n=112). The record read poorly on Good to Firm going — 2.9% over 68 rides, 3.9pts below the baseline.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2010→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 307 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 307 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 March 2010 to 1 November 2013.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Ian Burns's strike rate?
- Ian Burns has won 21 of 307 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Ian Burns do best at?
- Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 rides (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Ian Burns ride most for?
- Michael Bell, with 58 rides since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (13.8%).
- What is Ian Burns's Fair A/E?
- 0.84, from 305 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.