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Trainer profile

Tony Newcombe

100 runners in the last 5 seasons · 19 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 15 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–100
Wins / Runs
6%
Strike rate
n=100
12 (12%)
Placed
1.50
Fair A/E
n=100 · 1.28 incl. margin
+30.50
£1 level stake
n=100 at SP · +30.5%
£46,705
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.50). With a claiming rider up the record reads 8% (48 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 100 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 8.3%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.7% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.99). The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (11.6%, n=43). The market has also underrated the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 1.56 across 87 runners (6.9% strike, +43.50 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 2.9% over 35 runners, 3.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Mambo Spirit (IRE) — 11 wins from 80 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.7%−3.3
n=37 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −20.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.0
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%+2.3
n=48 · A/E 2.11 · £1 +6.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 11.6% vs 6% · n=43
On Standard (AW) going 2.9% vs 6% · n=35
Off a 61-180-day break 3.3% vs 6% · n=30
With claiming riders up 8.3% vs 6% · n=48
With a new jockey booking 4% vs 6% · n=50
In Flat races 6.9% vs 6% · n=87 · A/E 1.56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 87 6 6.9% +43.50
Hurdle 10 0 0% −10.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 35 1 2.9% −18.00
Good 21 2 9.5% +7.50
Good to Soft 16 1 6.3% −7.00
Good to Firm 14 2 14.3% +62.00
Soft 7 0 0% −7.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 20 1 5% −3.00
Brighton 15 2 13.3% +17.00
Bath 14 0 0% −14.00
Southwell (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00
Epsom Downs 5 1 20% +4.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Chepstow 5 2 40% +67.50
Salisbury 4 0 0% −4.00
Exeter 4 0 0% −4.00
Taunton 3 0 0% −3.00
Wincanton 3 0 0% −3.00
Lingfield (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Leicester 2 0 0% −2.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Nottingham 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 54 3 5.6% +53.00
Class 4 28 2 7.1% −10.00
Class 5 16 1 6.3% −10.50
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 6 1 16.7% 1.06 −0.50
4th–6th fav 22 2 9.1% 1.44 −4.00
7th+ in betting 71 3 4.2% 2.11 +36.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Bug Boy (IRE)from Paul George 26 5 8 6 Oct 26
Joli's Legacy (IRE) 11 0 1 31 Aug 23
Liricist (IRE) 9 1 1 4 Feb 26
Lightning Attack (GB)from Richard Fahey 7 0 0 15 May 24
Stancheski (IRE) 7 0 0 8 May 24
Iron Heart (GB)from David Pipe · then Peter Bowen 7 0 0 9 Aug 23
Joyful Song (IRE) 6 0 0 4 Oct 22
Whisper Of Mist (GB) 4 0 0 15 Jul 26
Perfect Liberty (GB) 3 0 0 15 May 24
Eltham Palace (GB)from David Simcock 3 0 1 31 Aug 23
In Paradise (GB)from Richard Fahey 3 0 1 13 Jun 22
Princess Jastar (IRE)from Tom Clover 2 0 0 16 Oct 25
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 19 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul George (2) and Richard Fahey (2); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000001417815000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
William Cox 27 2 7.4% −4.50
Aidan Keeley 7 0 0% −7.00
Harry Kimber 6 0 0% −6.00
Connor Planas 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Rhiain Ingram 5 0 0% −5.00
Franny Norton 4 0 0% −4.00
Taryn Langley 4 1 25% +19.00
Alistair Rawlinson 4 0 0% −4.00
Kieran O'Neill 3 0 0% −3.00
Tom Queally 3 0 0% −3.00
Darragh Keenan 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr Henry Main 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
146
Archived wins
£836k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 16 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Hanoverian Baron (GB) — sportingbet.com Jorvik Handicap York · May 2010 · Class 2
£25,904
Gaelic Princess (GB) — E.B.F. Lochsong Fillies' Handicap Salisbury · Aug 2006 · Class 2
£15,580
Witchry (GB) — Racing Welfare Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Newmarket · Aug 2010 · Class 4
£12,462
Notable horses
Mambo Spirit (IRE) Spellmaker (GB) Majehar (GB) Gaelic Princess (GB) Noah Jameel (GB) Bug Boy (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Big Bad Bob (IRE) 19.2% · 5–26
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,568 runs since 2008 (314 horses).
Elzaam (AUS) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,517 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.7% from 322.
Prince Of Lir (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,370 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.
Lethal Force (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,264 runs since 2008 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.2% from 357.
Muhaarar (GB) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,785 runs since 2008 (412 horses).
Sans Frontieres (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9% of 1,251 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.2% from 183.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,891 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,891 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 6 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Oct 26 Brighton Bug Boy (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 12/1
01 Sep 26 Brighton Bug Boy (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Follow Matchbook On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good · 8 ran 1st 22/1
15 Jul 26 Bath Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Jack Doughty Stakes Are Always High Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Firm · 7 ran 7th 200/1
15 Jul 26 Bath Bug Boy (IRE)J: Jack Doughty Wiltshire And Bath Air Ambulance Charity Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Firm · 8 ran 7th 28/1
06 Jun 26 Chepstow Bug Boy (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Capital Windscreens Supporting Mental Health HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 14/1
14 May 26 Salisbury Krystyna (GB)J: George Wood Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 11th 300/1
13 May 26 Bath Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Platinum Motor Group Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Firm · 6 ran 6th 300/1
04 Feb 26 Kempton (AW) Liricist (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 50/1
04 Feb 26 Kempton (AW) Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 11th 250/1
14 Jan 26 Kempton (AW) Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Bet 20 Get 20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 13th 300/1
22 Dec 25 Lingfield (AW) Liricist (IRE)J: Jack Dace Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 66/1
16 Oct 25 Brighton Princess Jastar (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Starsports.Bet HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 10th 125/1
16 Oct 25 Brighton Liricist (IRE)J: Jack Callan Star Sports Brighton Owners Series HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 8th 40/1
14 Sep 25 Bath Princess Jastar (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill Bath Rugby HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 9th 125/1
13 Sep 25 Bath Bug Boy (IRE)J: Mr Henry Main Signs Express 'Confined' Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 14/1
13 Sep 25 Bath Liricist (IRE)J: Jack Callan Euram Air Leases Ireland Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 28/1
14 Oct 24 Kempton (AW) Tarka Country (GB)J: Sorin Moldoveanu Unibet More Extra Place Races Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 300/1
14 Sep 24 Chester Bug Boy (IRE)J: Niall Houlihan Edinburgh Gin Jump Jockeys Challenge Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (Div 1)Class 4 · 12.5f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 25/1
10 Sep 24 Leicester Liricist (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds It's National Racehorse Week NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 11/2
02 Sep 24 Chepstow Liricist (IRE)J: Ray Dawson AK BETS Home Of Free Bets NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 1st 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tony Newcombe's strike rate?
Tony Newcombe has won 6 of 100 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Tony Newcombe's Fair A/E?
1.50, from 100 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).