Jamie Mackay
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 50 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (38 rides).
The record is strongest at Kempton (AW) (11.8%, n=68), clear of the rider's 5.2% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.8% (n=38, Fair A/E 1.10), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 1.7% (n=288, Fair A/E 0.43). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 1.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.52 and −80.75 to a £1 stake over 104 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Willie Musson supplied 33% of the rides and edges the rider's average (8.5% vs 5.2%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also read well over 1m5f – 2m (13.2%, n=53). The record read poorly at trips under 6f — 0% over 67 rides, 5.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.32 across 215 rides (1.4% strike, −186.90 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the E B F Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock (May 2007, £19,873). Seasonally, the rider fired Mar–Apr.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,507 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,507 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 11 September 2019.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Jamie Mackay's strike rate?
- Jamie Mackay has won 30 of 579 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Jamie Mackay do best at?
- Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 68 rides (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Jamie Mackay ride most for?
- Willie Musson, with 189 rides since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (8.5%).
- What is Jamie Mackay's Fair A/E?
- 0.88, from 575 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.