Calculated Risk (GB)
Calculated Risk (GB) is 8 from 48. Hasn't won since Mar 2016. All 8 wins have come on turf — 0 from 4 on the all-weather. Last raced off 97, 39lb below the career-high mark.
- 8–48Wins / Runs
- 16.7%Strike rate
- 15 (31.3%)Placed
- −4.50£1 level staken=48 at SP
- 1.10Fair A/E n=47 · 0.92 incl. margin
- 136Highest OR
- 49dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 81
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 21 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 2 | 62A | 52 | — |
| Soft | 2 | 123A | 101 | — |
| Heavy | 2 | 81B | 64 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 21 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 4 | 81B | 63 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 123A | 92.5 | — |
Of 8 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (2).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 6 figures from 8 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 12.1% of 5,575 runs since Jan 2008 (511 horses).
Strongest on soft going: 15.9% from 1,080. Weakest on standard (aw) going: 7.8% from 1,277. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.1% from 589. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 573.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | +11.7 | — |
| Good to Firm | 571 | 71 | 12.4% | +0.3 | 0 from 4 |
| Good | 1,317 | 145 | 11% | −1.1 | 2 from 12 |
| Good to Soft | 859 | 112 | 13% | +0.9 | 2 from 8 |
| Soft | 1,080 | 172 | 15.9% | +3.8 | 2 from 11 |
| Heavy | 449 | 67 | 14.9% | +2.8 | 2 from 9 |
| Standard (AW) | 1,277 | 100 | 7.8% | −4.3 | 0 from 4 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 41 | 3 | 7.3% | −4.8 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 573 | 50 | 8.7% | −3.4 | 0 from 4 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,107 | 108 | 9.8% | −2.3 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,851 | 243 | 13.1% | +1 | 1 from 5 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,213 | 160 | 13.2% | +1.1 | 5 from 19 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 589 | 89 | 15.1% | +3 | 2 from 18 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 182 | 17 | 9.3% | −2.8 | 0 from 1 |
| Over 3m | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | +3.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 21 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
7 siblings in the archive, 5 winners — best of them Kings Quay (GB) (7 wins).
The wins came over 7f–2m1½f; the highest grade won is Grade 2 (Kings Quay (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings Quay (GB) | 47 | 7 | 1m2f–2m1½f | Grade 2 |
| Milne Graden (GB) | 6 | 3 | 1m2f | Class 3 |
| Fastback (IRE) | 6 | 3 | 1m1½f–1m3f | Class 3 |
| Vincent's Forever (GB) | 26 | 2 | 7f–1m3f | Class 4 |
| Nathania (GB) | 10 | 1 | 1m3½f | Class 4 |
| Mount Glenn (GB) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
| Glen Moy (GB) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 12 | 2 | 17% | −2.50 |
| Soft | 11 | 2 | 18% | −3.75 |
| Heavy | 9 | 2 | 22% | −2.75 |
| Good to Soft | 8 | 2 | 25% | +12.50 |
| Good to Firm | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 21 | 4 | 19% | −4.50 |
| Class 4 | 11 | 1 | 9% | +4.00 |
| Class 3 | 8 | 3 | 38% | +4.00 |
| Class 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ffos Las | 9 | 2 | 22% | −0.75 |
| Catterick | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Sandown | 3 | 1 | 33% | +0.50 |
| Worcester | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Huntingdon | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Pontefract | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Cheltenham | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Doncaster | 2 | 2 | 100% | +17.50 |
| Newmarket | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wincanton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Uttoxeter | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chepstow | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wetherby | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Haydock | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sedgefield | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.50 |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ayr | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ascot | 1 | 1 | 100% | +4.00 |
| Kelso | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Windsor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 19 | 5 | 26% | +11.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 18 | 2 | 11% | −9.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 5 | 1 | 20% | −0.50 |
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dougie Costello | 9 | 4 | 44% | +18.00 |
| Tom Bellamy | 5 | 1 | 20% | +0.50 |
| Lizzie Kelly | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Ian Brennan | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Jamie Mackay | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Stevie Donohoe | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Trevor Whelan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sean Bowen | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Nathan Moscrop | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.75 |
| Harry Skelton | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Michael O'Connell | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| William Buick | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Adam Wedge | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Joe Doyle | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| James Reveley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Phillip Makin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ryan Moore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Brian Hughes | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Richard Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Robert Winston | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.75 |
| Dean Pratt | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tom McLaughlin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 45 | 8 | 18% | −1.50 |
| Cheekpieces | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 2016 | 9 | 2 | 22% | −0.75 |
| 2015 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| 2014 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2013 | 12 | 5 | 42% | +18.75 |
| 2012 | 5 | 1 | 20% | −0.50 |
| 2011 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 28 | 6 | 21% | +7.25 |
| Flat | 18 | 2 | 11% | −9.75 |
| Chase | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has Calculated Risk (GB) won?
- Calculated Risk (GB) won 8 of 48 archived starts between 2011 and 2017, a strike rate of 16.7%. Placed 15 times in total (31.3% of starts).
- Who trained Calculated Risk (GB)?
- Calculated Risk (GB) was trained by Alexandra Dunn on the most recent run on record, at Wincanton on 23 November 2017.
- Who is Calculated Risk (GB)'s sire?
- Calculated Risk (GB) is by Motivator (GB) out of Glen Rosie (IRE), whose sire is Mujtahid.
- What going does Calculated Risk (GB) prefer?
- Calculated Risk (GB) has the best record on good to soft going: 2 wins from 8 starts (25%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Calculated Risk (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 97, from the run on 23 November 2017. The highest on record is 136.
- What is Calculated Risk (GB)'s sire's record?
- Motivator (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 12.1% of 5,575 runs since Jan 2008 (511 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on soft going: 15.9% from 1,080. Weakest on standard (aw) going: 7.8% from 1,277. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.1% from 589. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 573.
- Who are Calculated Risk (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Glen Rosie (IRE), Calculated Risk (GB) has 7 other produce in our archive, 5 of them winners. Most wins: Kings Quay (GB) (7). Highest grade won: Grade 2 (Kings Quay (GB)). The wins came over 7f–2m1½f. As at Oct 2026.