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Jockey profile

Jay Mackay

65 rides in the last 5 seasons · 43 individual horses
As at 31 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Oct 2025 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2022
5–65
Wins / Runs
7.7%
Strike rate
n=65
16 (25%)
Placed
0.94
Fair A/E
n=65 · 0.81 incl. margin
−37.80
£1 level stake
n=65 at SP · −58.2%
£75,995
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB at a glance First rides: 9.3%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.3%+1.6
n=43 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −18.05
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
50%+42.3
n=4 · A/E 2.41 · £1 +2.45
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
20%+12.3
n=5 · A/E 2.36 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +2.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.7%+0.0
n=65 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −37.80
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−7.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 21 1 4.8% −16.80
Good 19 3 15.8% +0.00
Good to Firm 10 1 10% −6.00
Soft 6 0 0% −6.00
Good to Soft 5 0 0% −5.00
Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chepstow 9 1 11.1% −5.25
Yarmouth 7 0 0% −7.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 5 1 20% −0.80
Newcastle (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Chester 4 2 50% +11.25
Kempton (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Windsor 4 0 0% −4.00
Southwell (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Carlisle 2 0 0% −2.00
Brighton 2 0 0% −2.00
Bath 2 0 0% −2.00
Nottingham 2 0 0% −2.00
Lingfield (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Hamilton 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 29 2 6.9% −21.05
Class 5 23 1 4.3% −19.00
Class 4 6 1 16.7% −3.75
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 3 3 1 33.3% +10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 2 50% 1.65 +2.00
2nd–3rd fav 10 2 20% 1.10 −1.80
4th–6th fav 21 0 0% 0.00 −21.00
7th+ in betting 30 1 3.3% 1.41 −17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Miss Harmony (GB) 8 0 2 14 Oct 24
Letter Of The Law (IRE) 5 0 1 25 Aug 25
Masterclass (GB) 3 0 3 7 Oct 25
Punchbowl Flyer (IRE) 3 1 2 2 Sep 25
My Boy Jack (GB) 2 0 0 12 Sep 25
Mayday Malone (GB) 2 2 2 12 Sep 25
Royal Justice (IRE) 2 0 0 1 Aug 25
Tralee Girl (IRE) 2 1 1 13 Jul 25
La Verite (GB) 2 0 1 11 Oct 24
Time Tested (GB) 2 0 0 6 May 24
Serendipitous Lady (IRE) 2 0 0 26 Aug 23
Born In Beirut (GB) 1 0 0 30 Oct 25
All 43 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
··0200330138000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Michael Bell 29 4 13.8% −5.55
John O'Shea 8 1 12.5% −4.25
Scott Dixon 5 0 0% −5.00
Paul Midgley 3 0 0% −3.00
Kevin Frost 3 0 0% −3.00
J R Jenkins 3 0 0% −3.00
Bernard Llewellyn 2 0 0% −2.00
Patrick Owens 2 0 0% −2.00
Tony Carroll 1 0 0% −1.00
Nikki Evans 1 0 0% −1.00
Paddy Butler 1 0 0% −1.00
Rachel Cook & John Bridger 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
5
Archived wins
£78,460
Prize money
2025
Best season · 4 wins
Mayday Malone (GB) — John Smith's Handicap Chester · Jun 2025 · Class 3
£20,384
Mayday Malone (GB) — Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Chester · Sep 2025 · Class 4
£10,308
Tralee Girl (IRE) — Download The Raceday Ready App Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Catterick · Apr 2025 · Class 5
£4,212
Notable horses
Mayday Malone (GB) Punchbowl Flyer (IRE) Tralee Girl (IRE) Clever Currency (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Tamayuz (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.4% of 5,187 runs since 2008 (401 horses).
Lawman (FR) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.9% of 9,424 runs since 2008 (730 horses).
Bated Breath (GB) 50% · 2–4
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,161 runs since 2008 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 850.
Dream Ahead (USA) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,700 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.
Lethal Force (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,268 runs since 2008 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.2% from 357.
Time Test (GB) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,134 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.9% from 331. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.5% from 317.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 72 · newest first

The latest 50 of 72 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 November 2020 to 30 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Born In Beirut (GB)T: Michael Bell betting.betfair.com EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 250/1
07 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Masterclass (GB)T: Paul Midgley Download The At The Races App HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 5/1
06 Oct 25 Yarmouth Yea Boi (IRE)T: Clare Hobson AKS Skip Hire NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 9th 100/1
02 Oct 25 Nottingham Corsican Caper (IRE)T: Kevin Frost PricedUp The Flat Grassroots Series Stayers' Final Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 14f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 14/1
27 Sep 25 Southwell (AW) Echoofmymind (GB)T: Michael Bell Join Southwell Golf Club Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 5/1
22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Lil Wade (IRE)T: Scott Dixon betcalculator.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 100/1
20 Sep 25 Chester He's A Gentleman (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Lord Mayor's Fireworks Extravaganza Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 14/1
18 Sep 25 Yarmouth Chloe's Courage (GB)T: John Ryan White Swan Fishermans Fortune HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 10/1
14 Sep 25 Bath Not Just Yet (IRE)T: Nikki Evans BetWright Safer Gambling Bath Summer Sprint Series Final HandicapClass 2 · 5.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 11th 16/1
12 Sep 25 Chester My Boy Jack (GB)T: Kevin Frost LiveScoreBet Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 9th 14/1
12 Sep 25 Chester Mayday Malone (GB)T: Michael Bell Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 1st 5/4F
11 Sep 25 Epsom Downs Beau Jardine (IRE)T: Rachel Cook & John Bridger Saddle Up With Snug HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 18/1
08 Sep 25 Newcastle (AW) Masterclass (GB)T: Paul Midgley Arc 1MILLION Bonus Bigger Than Ever Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 3rd 15/2
02 Sep 25 Chepstow Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)T: John O'Shea Why Bet Elsewhere, David Lucas Bookmakers Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 11/2
31 Aug 25 Brighton My Boy Jack (GB)T: Kevin Frost Brighton Sprint Series Final HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 9th 11/1
25 Aug 25 Chepstow Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)T: John O'Shea DragonBet WRF The Value Festival HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/2
25 Aug 25 Chepstow Letter Of The Law (IRE)T: John O'Shea DragonBet Supporting British Racing Chepstow Mile Series Final HandicapClass 2 · 8f · Good · 15 ran 11th 33/1
22 Aug 25 Ffos Las Beaune (IRE)T: Bernard Llewellyn Ascona Ladies Race Day Elegance HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 11/2
19 Aug 25 Chepstow Letter Of The Law (IRE)T: John O'Shea BetWright Safer Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 5 ran 5th 4/1
14 Aug 25 Chepstow Letter Of The Law (IRE)T: John O'Shea 'Phil Saunders Miracle 70th' HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 9th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jay Mackay's strike rate?
Jay Mackay has won 5 of 65 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Jay Mackay's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 65 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 31 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).