What is Lucinda Russell's strike rate?

Lucinda Russell has won 281 of 2,068 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lucinda Russell do best at?

Wetherby by strike rate: 16 wins from 82 runners (19.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Lucinda Russell?

Derek Fox, with 666 runners since 2022 — 32% of the total. That pairing has won 104 (15.6%).

What is Lucinda Russell's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 2,063 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Lucinda Russell

2,068 runners in the last 5 seasons · 265 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Aug 2025

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

281–2,068

Wins / Runs

13.6%

Strike rate

n=2,068

674 (33%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=2,063 · 0.87 incl. margin

−488.87

£1 level stake

n=2,068 at SP · −23.6%

£4.57m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 410 runners a season, winning with 14% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.00). Debutants are a strength: 16% on first career starts (135 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,068 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 40.2% when favourite Derek Fox: 15.6% from 666 Claiming riders: 15.6% Sends off the favourite in 12% of races

The read

It is weakest at Carlisle (5.6% over 107 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 10.1% (n=89, Fair A/E 0.75). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 10.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −196.31 to a £1 stake over 427 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Derek Fox rides 32% of the entries and edges the yard's average (15.6% vs 13.6%, A/E 0.93). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (21%, n=119). The record reads poorly on Good to Firm going — 4.1% over 49 runners, 9.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.54 across 144 runners (6.9% strike, −96.92 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 18 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree (Apr 2017, £561,300). The stable star of the record: Bescot Springs (IRE) — 9 wins from 69 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.8%−2.8

n=427 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −196.31

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.8%−2.8

n=65 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −5.00

Debutants · first career start

16.3%+2.7

n=135 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −3.71

First-time headgear · true-first definition

10.1%−3.5

n=89 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −18.99

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13.6%+0.0

n=22 · A/E 1.61 · £1 +19.50

When favourite

40.2%

n=241 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +11.59

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

15.6%+2.0

n=685 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −83.39

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.5%−3.1

n=86 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −9.27

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Carlisle 5.6% vs 13.6% · n=107

On Good to Firm going 4.1% vs 13.6% · n=49

Over 6f – 7f 5.8% vs 13.6% · n=104

Off a 8-14-day break 21% vs 13.6% · n=119

Off a break of 180+ days 6.9% vs 13.6% · n=144

On last-time-out winners 19.1% vs 13.6% · n=278

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 872 113 13% −229.54

Chase 652 110 16.9% −151.09

Flat 399 40 10% −67.48

NH Flat 145 18 12.4% −40.76

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Soft 616 83 13.5% −79.60

Soft 587 90 15.3% −130.01

Good 506 63 12.5% −171.02

Heavy 200 33 16.5% −37.32

Standard (AW) 110 10 9.1% −40.92

Good to Firm 49 2 4.1% −30.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ayr 316 53 16.8% −13.89

Kelso 267 49 18.4% −2.19

Musselburgh 256 35 13.7% −51.74

Perth 229 27 11.8% −80.59

Hexham 127 21 16.5% −46.27

Newcastle 122 22 18% +4.07

Carlisle 107 6 5.6% −83.72

Newcastle (AW) 92 9 9.8% −27.92

Wetherby 82 16 19.5% +1.51

Hamilton 78 6 7.7% −33.17

Haydock 53 4 7.5% −36.75

Aintree 39 5 12.8% +2.33

Cheltenham 39 4 10.3% −6.00

Bangor-on-Dee 29 3 10.3% −10.00

Doncaster 28 4 14.3% +12.08

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 884 139 15.7% −187.78

Class 5 472 53 11.2% −127.21

Class 3 299 44 14.7% −124.26

Class 2 150 14 9.3% −51.42

Class 6 147 19 12.9% +17.57

Class 1 111 12 10.8% −10.77

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 287 108 37.6% 1.11 +7.47

2nd–3rd fav 609 101 16.6% 0.92 −116.84

4th–6th fav 742 56 7.5% 0.94 −225.50

7th+ in betting 430 16 3.7% 0.98 −154.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.1% completed · 1,524 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 652 82.8% 28 19 64 1 0

Hurdle 872 88.5% 25 7 67 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Cuban Cigar (GB)from Richard Hannon · then Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 43 3 16 13 Jul 25

Ballyare (GB)from Mrs C O'Leary 34 2 5 8 Feb 25

Moyola (GB) 29 3 7 28 Jul 25

Starlyte (IRE)from Linda Perratt · then Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 26 4 10 19 Jul 25

Rory The Cat (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish · then Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 25 5 10 1 Aug 25

Return Fire (IRE)from Brendan Oliver Walsh 24 4 6 14 Apr 25

Camp Belan (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon 23 2 5 13 Mar 25

Thereisnodoubt (IRE)from Shane Crawley · then Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 23 3 11 8 Mar 25

Castletown (FR)from Pauline Robson 23 2 9 9 Sep 24

Flylikeaneagle (IRE)from Eamonn O'Connell 23 5 7 21 Apr 24

Diamond State (FR) 22 1 5 25 Sep 24

Netywell (FR)then Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 21 5 10 23 Apr 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 265 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Jim Goldie (2) and Keith Dalgleish (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

32 have since run for another yard, most often for Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore (30); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1513181211913416141812

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDerek Fox

32% of all rides
15.6% SR · A/E 0.93

RiderRWSR£1

Derek Fox 666 104 15.6% −147.36

Patrick Wadge 445 74 16.6% −64.68

Stephen Mulqueen 221 25 11.3% −88.78

Alan Doyle 141 18 12.8% −51.17

Oisin Orr 121 17 14% −8.30

Conner McCann 77 10 13% −0.28

Jack Power 53 7 13.2% −11.87

Paul Mulrennan 30 5 16.7% +4.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

960

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.2m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 92 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

One For Arthur (IRE) — Randox Health Grand National (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) Aintree · Apr 2017 · Grade 3

£561,300

Corach Rambler (IRE) — Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2023 · Class 1

£500,000

Mighty Thunder (GB) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Ayr · Apr 2021 · Grade 3

£84,405

Notable horses

Bescot Springs (IRE) Big River (IRE) Quito Du Tresor (FR) Catch The Perk (IRE) Mighty Thunder (GB) Alizee De Janeiro (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Malinas (GER) 11% · 11–100

Progeny have won 14.2% of 3,957 runs since 2010 (419 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 21.2% · 18–85

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,040 runs since 2011 (707 horses).

Dylan Thomas (IRE) 23.5% · 19–81

Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,493 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.

Getaway (GER) 9.9% · 7–71

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,994 runs since 2016 (1,031 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Milan (GB) 11.3% · 8–71

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,876 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Westerner (GB) 16.7% · 9–54

Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,858 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,600 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,600 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 2 August 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Aug 25 Hamilton Transfuse (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin MacGregor Flooring HandicapClass 6 · 9f · Good · 7 ran 6th 6/1

02 Aug 25 Hamilton Two Auld Pals (IRE)J: David Nolan Apex Traffic Management Ltd Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 13f · Good · 9 ran 6th 13/2

02 Aug 25 Hamilton Orphan Ollie (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Margaret Smith Memorial Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 11f · Good · 6 ran 6th 12/1

01 Aug 25 Musselburgh Panthere Noir (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 4th 25/1

01 Aug 25 Musselburgh Rory The Cat (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Morris & Spottiswood Group HandicapClass 6 · 13f · Good · 6 ran 6th 20/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr Transfuse (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Guinness HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 4th 28/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr Moyola (GB)J: Oisin Orr San Miguel HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 3/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr Jujubella (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Outcider Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 6th 16/1

28 Jul 25 Ayr John L Sullivan (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Schweppes HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 5/1

24 Jul 25 Worcester Mayos Vendangeur (IRE)J: Miss Megan Davies Dolphin Tec Amateur Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

22 Jul 25 Musselburgh Balmerino (GB)J: Jack Nicholls Lucas Ice Cream Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 9f · Good · 4 ran 4th 9/4

22 Jul 25 Musselburgh Rory The Cat (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Sankt Goarshausen 1980 HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 13/2

22 Jul 25 Musselburgh Transfuse (IRE)J: Amie Waugh Sankt Goarshausen 1980 HandicapClass 6 · 12.5f · Good · 8 ran 6th 18/1

21 Jul 25 Ayr South Road (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Dream Weddings At Western House Hotel HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 8/1

19 Jul 25 Cartmel Starlyte (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge PSR Marquees Crystal Cup Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 22f · Good · 14 ran 11th 20/1

17 Jul 25 Hamilton Bring Her Home (IRE)J: P J McDonald Racing TV Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 125/1

16 Jul 25 Uttoxeter Somebody's Fortune (IRE)J: Patrick Wadge BetWright Safer Gambling Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 40/1

16 Jul 25 Uttoxeter Killybegs Jet Lady (IRE)J: Alan Doyle BetWright Safer Gambling Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 5/1

14 Jul 25 Ayr Balmerino (GB)J: Oisin Orr Try Racing TV For Free Now HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 17/2

14 Jul 25 Ayr Moyola (GB)J: Oisin Orr Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 4th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lucinda Russell's strike rate?: Lucinda Russell has won 281 of 2,068 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lucinda Russell do best at?: Wetherby by strike rate: 16 wins from 82 runners (19.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Lucinda Russell?: Derek Fox, with 666 runners since 2022 — 32% of the total. That pairing has won 104 (15.6%).
What is Lucinda Russell's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 2,063 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.