What is Justin Newman's strike rate?

Justin Newman has won 32 of 294 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Justin Newman do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 34 rides (8.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Justin Newman ride most for?

Bryan Smart, with 111 rides since 2008 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (17.1%).

What is Justin Newman's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 291 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Justin Newman

294 rides in the lifetime window · 179 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Mar 2016 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

32–294

Wins / Runs

10.9%

Strike rate

n=294

89 (30%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=291 · 0.91 incl. margin

−74.38

£1 level stake

n=294 at SP · −25.3%

£161k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (33 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 294 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Bryan Smart: 17.1% from 111 First rides: 12.3% LTO winners: 15.2% Claiming: 11.4%

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.2% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.97). Bryan Smart supplied 38% of the rides and beats the rider's average (17.1% vs 10.9%, A/E 1.55) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well on Good going (16%, n=75) and in Class 4 (15.8%, n=57). The record read poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 2.6% over 38 rides, 8.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.70 across 100 rides (6% strike, −65.17 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

12.3%+1.4

n=179 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −13.92

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.2%+4.3

n=33 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −13.75

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.3%−2.6

n=48 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +5.50

When favourite

34.5%

n=29 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +12.12

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.4%+0.5

n=264 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −56.38

Big fields · 14+ runners

12%+1.1

n=50 · A/E 1.80 · £1 −10.42

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 2.6% vs 10.9% · n=38

With Bryan Smart 17.1% vs 10.9% · n=111

In Class 5 6% vs 10.9% · n=100

On Good going 16% vs 10.9% · n=75

In Class 4 15.8% vs 10.9% · n=57

Off a 31-60-day break 15.8% vs 10.9% · n=57

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 293 32 10.9% −73.38

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 90 6 6.7% −52.67

Good 75 12 16% −9.29

Good to Firm 65 9 13.8% +31.00

Good to Soft 31 2 6.5% −23.42

Soft 28 3 10.7% −15.00

Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 34 3 8.8% −15.67

Wolverhampton (AW) 29 1 3.4% −24.00

Hamilton 22 2 9.1% −12.00

Musselburgh 21 2 9.5% −5.50

Kempton (AW) 17 1 5.9% −11.00

Beverley 17 2 11.8% +5.00

Redcar 15 5 33.3% +14.38

Doncaster 13 0 0% −13.00

Thirsk 13 1 7.7% −4.00

Catterick 12 3 25% −0.50

York 12 1 8.3% −6.50

Carlisle 10 1 10% −5.67

Newcastle 10 1 10% −6.00

Nottingham 9 2 22.2% +24.33

Lingfield (AW) 8 1 12.5% +0.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 115 16 13.9% +7.58

Class 5 100 6 6% −65.17

Class 4 57 9 15.8% +1.21

Class 3 11 1 9.1% −7.00

Class 2 6 0 0% −6.00

Class 7 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 39 11 28.2% 1.24 +6.12

2nd–3rd fav 65 13 20% 1.39 +13.00

4th–6th fav 94 6 6.4% 0.73 −36.50

7th+ in betting 96 2 2.1% 0.57 −57.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Roninski (IRE) 9 4 4 1 Jun 13

Flash City (ITY) 6 0 3 15 Aug 13

Verinco (GB) 6 2 3 15 Jun 13

Avertuoso (GB) 6 1 1 4 Nov 11

Master Leon (GB) 5 1 2 1 Dec 11

Ready (IRE) 4 1 3 1 Jan 16

Wild Sauce (GB) 4 1 4 14 Aug 13

Feel The Heat (GB) 4 1 2 25 Jul 13

Smalljohn (GB) 4 1 1 3 Jul 13

Bitaphon (IRE) 4 1 1 4 Aug 12

Ingleby Star (IRE) 4 1 1 11 Jun 12

Bandstand (GB) 4 1 3 8 Jan 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 179 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1000027101017121840

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardBryan Smart

38% of all rides
17.1% SR · A/E 1.55

TrainerRWSR£1

Bryan Smart 111 19 17.1% +6.54

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

Archived wins

£161k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 17 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ingleby Star (IRE) — Betfair Bonus Scottish Racing Sprint Series Final Handicap Musselburgh · Sep 2011 · Class 4

£14,755

Verinco (GB) — totescoop6 Catterick Dash (Handicap) Catterick · Oct 2011 · Class 3

£9,057

Alfred Hutchinson (GB) — John Wright Electrical Apprentice Handicap York · May 2012 · Class 4

£6,469

Notable horses

Roninski (IRE) Verinco (GB) Avertuoso (GB) Master Leon (GB) Ready (IRE) Wild Sauce (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,981 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Royal Applause (GB) 18.2% · 2–11

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Cadeaux Genereux (GB) 40% · 4–10

Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,919 runs since 2008 (203 horses).

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 33.3% · 3–9

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 11.1% · 1–9

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,036 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Kyllachy (GB) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 295 · newest first

The latest 50 of 295 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 17 August 2006 to 28 March 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Mar 16 Redcar Mustn't Grumble (IRE)T: Ivan Furtado Redcar Racecourse Cheapest Admission In Great Britain HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Heavy · 13 ran 5th 8/1

09 Mar 16 Kempton (AW) Secret Millionaire (IRE)T: Shaun Harris 32Red.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 20/1

09 Mar 16 Kempton (AW) First Summer (GB)T: Shaun Harris Star Links 100th Run HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 12/1

03 Mar 16 Southwell (AW) Thou Swell (IRE)T: Shaun Harris Coral.co.uk Racing HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 16/1

03 Mar 16 Southwell (AW) Major Muscari (IRE)T: Shaun Harris Unibet Offer Daily Jockey & Trainer Specials HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 20/1

23 Feb 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Secret Millionaire (IRE)T: Shaun Harris unibet.co.uk Daily Enhanced Place Terms Classified Selling StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 4 ran 3rd 8/1

10 Feb 16 Southwell (AW) Music Hall (FR)T: Shaun Harris Ladbrokes Mobile HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 12/1

04 Feb 16 Southwell (AW) Major Muscari (IRE)T: Shaun Harris Unibet Offer Daily Jockey/Trainer Specials HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 4/1

01 Feb 16 Kempton (AW) Yeeoow (IRE)T: K R Burke Racing Uk 3 Devices 1 Price HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 11/2

29 Jan 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Music Hall (FR)T: Shaun Harris Download The Ladbrokes App HandicapClass 7 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 28/1

28 Jan 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Pearl Acclaim (IRE)T: David Nicholls Betfred Home Of Goals Galore HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 7/4F

22 Jan 16 Lingfield (AW) Secret Millionaire (IRE)T: Shaun Harris Unibet Offer Daily Trainer & Jockey Specials HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 6/1

18 Jan 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Mujazif (IRE)T: David Nicholls Ladbrokes Classified Claiming StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 7/1

14 Jan 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Thou Swell (IRE)T: Shaun Harris Scoop6soccer The 1 Million Football Bet HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 7/1

11 Jan 16 Kempton (AW) Yeeoow (IRE)T: K R Burke Racing Uk 3 Devices 1 Price HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 6/1

10 Jan 16 Southwell (AW) Zaeem (GB)T: Ivan Furtado Ladbrokes HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 5th 2/1

08 Jan 16 Lingfield (AW) Cyflymder (IRE)T: David C Griffiths Download The Ladbrokes App HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 8/1

02 Jan 16 Southwell (AW) Zaeem (GB)T: Ivan Furtado Ladbrokes HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 7/1

02 Jan 16 Southwell (AW) Mambo Fever (GB)T: David C Griffiths Unibet Offer Daily Jockey/trainer Specials HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 6/4F

01 Jan 16 Southwell (AW) Ready (IRE)T: Ivan Furtado Coral App Download From The App Store HandicapClass 3 · 11f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Justin Newman's strike rate?: Justin Newman has won 32 of 294 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Justin Newman do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 34 rides (8.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Justin Newman ride most for?: Bryan Smart, with 111 rides since 2008 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (17.1%).
What is Justin Newman's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 291 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.