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Jockey profile

Keelan Baker

101 rides in the lifetime window · 70 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Jul 2021 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
2–101
Wins / Runs
2%
Strike rate
n=101
7 (7%)
Placed
0.42
Fair A/E
n=101 · 0.36 incl. margin
−90.00
£1 level stake
n=101 at SP · −89.1%
£18,033
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.42).

Deterministic profile computed from 101 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance First rides: 2.9%
The read

The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 2% strike, Fair A/E 0.42 and −90.00 to a £1 stake over 101 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.37 across 56 rides (1.8% strike, −51.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.9%+0.9
n=70 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −59.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−2.0
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
2%+0.0
n=101 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −90.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−2.0
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 0% vs 2% · n=43
Over 6f – 7f 0% vs 2% · n=33
Over 1m – 1m1f 0% vs 2% · n=32
On first rides for the horse 2.9% vs 2% · n=70 · A/E 0.58
In Class 6 2.7% vs 2% · n=74 · A/E 0.60
On Standard (AW) going 1.8% vs 2% · n=56 · A/E 0.37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 56 1 1.8% −51.00
Good to Firm 16 1 6.3% −10.00
Good 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Soft 6 0 0% −6.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00
Soft 4 0 0% −4.00
Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 18 0 0% −18.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00
Lingfield (AW) 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Chepstow 9 0 0% −9.00
Southwell (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Nottingham 7 0 0% −7.00
Bath 6 0 0% −6.00
Kempton (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Salisbury 4 0 0% −4.00
Newcastle (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Windsor 4 1 25% +2.00
Leicester 3 0 0% −3.00
Hamilton 3 0 0% −3.00
Chester 2 0 0% −2.00
Yarmouth 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 74 2 2.7% −63.00
Class 5 20 0 0% −20.00
Class 4 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 8 2 25% 1.63 +3.00
4th–6th fav 24 0 0% 0.00 −24.00
7th+ in betting 66 0 0% 0.00 −66.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Yet Another (IRE) 6 0 0 4 Sep 19
Celerity (IRE) 5 0 0 26 Jun 21
Indigo Princess (GB) 4 0 0 21 Aug 18
Isabella Ruby (GB) 3 0 0 21 Jun 21
Ramblow (GB) 3 0 0 10 Dec 19
Go Charlie (GB) 3 0 0 12 Feb 18
Edge (IRE) 3 0 0 28 Jun 17
Sheer Intensity (IRE) 3 0 0 9 Jun 17
New Look (FR) 2 0 0 14 Jun 21
Deftera Lad (IRE) 2 0 0 8 Jun 21
He Can Dance (IRE) 2 0 0 18 May 21
Fivehundredmiles (IRE) 2 0 1 4 Aug 20
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 70 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
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A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Michael Appleby 17 1 5.9% −12.00
David Evans 17 1 5.9% −11.00
Lisa Williamson 14 0 0% −14.00
Grace Harris 12 0 0% −12.00
Alexandra Dunn 6 0 0% −6.00
Sylvester Kirk 6 0 0% −6.00
Bernard Llewellyn 5 0 0% −5.00
J R Jenkins 5 0 0% −5.00
Mark Gillard 2 0 0% −2.00
Conor Dore 2 0 0% −2.00
Roger Fell 2 0 0% −2.00
Michael Chapman 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→
2
Archived wins
£18,033
Prize money
2017
Best season · 2 wins
Bertie Moon (GB) — Betway Apprentice Selling Stakes Lingfield (AW) · Dec 2017 · Class 6
£2,264
Powered (IRE) — Royal Windsor Racecourse Apprentice Handicap Windsor · Jun 2017 · Class 6
£2,264
Notable horses
Bertie Moon (GB) Powered (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
High Chaparral (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.3% of 8,730 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 419.
Casamento (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,630 runs since 2016 (299 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.9% from 287.
Myboycharlie (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 7.8% of 3,309 runs since 2013 (315 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 225. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.1% from 195.
Acclamation (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.
Captain Gerrard (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,054 runs since 2013 (175 horses).
Native Ruler (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 6.7% of 371 runs since 2015 (43 horses). Strongest on Good going: 14.4% from 125.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 101 · newest first

The latest 50 of 101 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 28 February 2017 to 10 July 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Jul 21 Hamilton Cole Noir (GB)T: R Mike Smith cleanstay At Hampton By Hilton HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Good · 8 ran 7th 100/1
03 Jul 21 Carlisle Niagara (IRE)T: Eric Alston Gretna Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 10/1
28 Jun 21 Pontefract Alicestar (GB)T: Sylvester Kirk Napoleons Casino Bradford Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 6th 25/1
26 Jun 21 Chester Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson Family Funday Tickets Now On Sale HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 125/1
21 Jun 21 Chepstow Isabella Ruby (GB)T: Lisa Williamson vickers.bet Try Our Live Casino Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 8th 125/1
14 Jun 21 Nottingham New Look (FR)T: Lisa Williamson MansionBets Betstival Bet 10 Get 20 HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 12th 33/1
12 Jun 21 Chester New Look (FR)T: Lisa Williamson Clogau Ladies Evening 25th June HandicapClass 4 · 10.5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 9th 200/1
09 Jun 21 Hamilton Isabella Ruby (GB)T: Lisa Williamson Every Race Live On RacingTV HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 40/1
08 Jun 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Deftera Lad (IRE)T: Sylvester Kirk Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 10/1
05 Jun 21 Lingfield (AW) Deftera Lad (IRE)T: Sylvester Kirk Visit Attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 5th 25/1
18 May 21 Wolverhampton (AW) He Can Dance (IRE)T: Sylvester Kirk EBC Group - Your Workplace Technology Partner HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 50/1
30 Apr 21 Chepstow He Can Dance (IRE)T: Sylvester Kirk Casumo Horse Racing & Sports Betting HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 18/1
27 Apr 21 Brighton Study The Stars (GB)T: Sylvester Kirk Watch Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 8th 8/1
25 Sep 20 Newcastle (AW) La Chica Lobo (GB)T: Lisa Williamson Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1
20 Sep 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Globe Theatre (USA)T: David Evans tote.co.uk Free Streaming Every UK Race Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 25/1
10 Sep 20 Chepstow Amber Lily (GB)T: Lisa Williamson Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 10th 200/1
07 Sep 20 Leicester Sea Fox (IRE)T: David Evans Bodie Hodges Foundation Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 7/2
05 Sep 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Amor Fati (IRE)T: David Evans attheraces.com Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 14/1
03 Sep 20 Salisbury Mr Top Hat (GB)T: David Evans Shadwell Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 4th 3/1F
07 Aug 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Inverarity (GB)T: Frank Bishop MansionBet Apprentice Maiden HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Keelan Baker's strike rate?
Keelan Baker has won 2 of 101 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Keelan Baker's Fair A/E?
0.42, from 101 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).