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Jockey profile

Mr Paul John

145 rides in the lifetime window · 78 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Feb 2017 97% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
15–145
Wins / Runs
10.3%
Strike rate
n=145
27 (19%)
Placed
1.34
Fair A/E
n=145 · 1.17 incl. margin
+8.75
£1 level stake
n=145 at SP · +6.0%
£74,436
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.34).

Deterministic profile computed from 145 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming: 10.6%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.54). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 10.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +12.75 to a £1 stake over 141 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The rider also read well on Good to Soft going (22.2%, n=36) and in Chase races (19.6%, n=46). The market has also underrated the rider off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 1.61 across 54 rides (16.7% strike, +21.25 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 4.2% over 48 rides, 6.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.81 across 82 rides (6.1% strike, −12.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9%−1.3
n=78 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −5.25
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
23.1%+12.8
n=13 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +4.75
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
2.5%−7.8
n=40 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −3.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10.6%+0.3
n=141 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +12.75
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.3%−4.0
n=16 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +18.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 22.2% vs 10.3% · n=36
In Chase races 19.6% vs 10.3% · n=46
Off a 15-30-day break 16.7% vs 10.3% · n=54
Over 1m5f – 2m 4.2% vs 10.3% · n=48
On Good going 4.5% vs 10.3% · n=44
In Hurdle races 6.1% vs 10.3% · n=82
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 82 5 6.1% −12.75
Chase 46 9 19.6% +29.50
NH Flat 12 0 0% −12.00
Flat 5 1 20% +4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 44 2 4.5% −6.25
Good to Soft 36 8 22.2% +14.00
Soft 33 4 12.1% +27.50
Heavy 19 0 0% −19.00
Good to Firm 12 1 8.3% −6.50
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ffos Las 22 1 4.5% −17.50
Ludlow 20 0 0% −20.00
Newton Abbot 10 3 30% +15.50
Hereford 10 1 10% −4.50
Fontwell 7 1 14.3% −3.25
Towcester 7 0 0% −7.00
Chepstow 7 2 28.6% +32.50
Fakenham 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Stratford 6 0 0% −6.00
Taunton 6 0 0% −6.00
Uttoxeter 6 0 0% −6.00
Wincanton 6 1 16.7% +28.00
Worcester 5 0 0% −5.00
Exeter 4 1 25% −0.25
Bangor-on-Dee 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 66 9 13.6% +42.50
Class 4 61 5 8.2% −28.75
Class 6 12 0 0% −12.00
Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 2 1 1 100% +12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 2 25% 0.96 −1.75
2nd–3rd fav 27 7 25.9% 1.48 +4.50
4th–6th fav 44 2 4.5% 0.76 −26.00
7th+ in betting 66 4 6.1% 2.31 +32.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
73.4% completed · 128 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 46 67.4% 3 2 10 0 0
Hurdle 82 76.8% 3 2 14 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Roses Legend (GB) 16 1 3 5 Jun 14
Umoristic (FR) 8 0 2 19 May 13
Bringewood Belle (GB) 6 2 2 1 Jun 14
Jewellery (IRE) 5 3 3 16 Sep 15
Dont Call Me Oscar (IRE) 5 2 3 20 Apr 15
Kagouillot (FR) 5 0 0 19 May 14
Elton Fox (GB) 4 0 1 23 Mar 15
Comical Red (GB) 3 1 1 6 May 15
Bold Duke (GB) 3 1 1 17 Dec 14
Big John Cannon (IRE) 3 0 0 12 Dec 13
Be Kind (GB) 3 0 0 23 Oct 13
Tenby Jewel (IRE) 2 0 0 15 Jul 15
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 78 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
096251100014101410
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Reginald Brown 29 1 3.4% −23.50
Mark Gillard 17 4 23.5% +47.00
John Needham 16 3 18.8% +36.50
Sarah-Jayne Davies 8 0 0% −8.00
Jim Best 7 0 0% −7.00
Victor Dartnall 7 3 42.9% +3.75
Dai Burchell 6 2 33.3% +1.50
Bernard Llewellyn 6 0 0% −6.00
Laura Hurley 5 0 0% −5.00
Edward Bevan 4 1 25% +5.00
Natalie Lloyd-Beavis 4 0 0% −4.00
Richard Woollacott 3 1 33.3% +1.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
15
Archived wins
£74,436
Prize money
2014
Best season · 8 wins
Mortimers Cross (GB) — John Smith's Scottish Borders National (Handicap Chase) Kelso · Dec 2012 · Class 2
£16,266
Comical Red (GB) — Bet Toteexacta Handicap Hurdle Newton Abbot · Mar 2015 · Class 4
£4,106
Dont Call Me Oscar (IRE) — Independent Racecourses Ltd Selling Handicap Hurdle Fakenham · Feb 2015 · Class 5
£4,106
Notable horses
Jewellery (IRE) Bringewood Belle (GB) Dont Call Me Oscar (IRE) One For The Boss (IRE) Roses Legend (GB) Comical Red (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Midnight Legend (GB) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Baroud D'honneur (FR) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.1% of 207 runs since 2008 (26 horses).
Oscar (IRE) 25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Kayf Tara (GB) 33.3% · 2–6
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,756 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
King's Best (USA) 50% · 3–6
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Sulamani (IRE) 33.3% · 2–6
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,246 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 145 · newest first

The latest 50 of 145 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2011 to 8 February 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Feb 17 Ludlow Easyondeye (IRE)T: Patrick J Hanly February Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 13 ran UR 80/1
21 Dec 15 Lingfield Inch Wing (IRE)T: Jim Best Money Back 2nd At Titanbet.co.uk Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 7 ran PU 66/1
17 Dec 15 Towcester Missile Man (IRE)T: Jim Best Totepool Betting On All Uk Racing Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 14 ran 13th 14/1
14 Dec 15 Plumpton Echo Brava (GB)T: Jim Best J H Builders Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 22/1
12 Dec 15 Lingfield Brother Bennett (FR)T: Jim Best NSSL Global Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 3/1
11 Dec 15 Bangor-on-Dee Maria's Choice (IRE)T: Jim Best Stella Artois Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 8 ran PU 9/4F
30 Nov 15 Plumpton Outrath (IRE)T: Jim Best 188bet.co.uk Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran 3rd 33/1
23 Nov 15 Ludlow Thehill Ofthe Rock (IRE)T: Jim Best Totepool Racing's Biggest Supporter Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 9/2
16 Sep 15 Kelso Jewellery (IRE)T: Katie Scott Farne Salmon & Trout Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran PU 10/1
15 Jul 15 Worcester Tenby Jewel (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Partex T-800 Promark Printer Selling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 8th 20/1
12 Jun 15 Newton Abbot Tenby Jewel (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Weatherbys Bloodstock Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 25/1
27 May 15 Newton Abbot Bang On Time (IRE)T: Richard Woollacott Sunflower Day Nursery Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good · 5 ran PU 7/2
07 May 15 Newton Abbot The Sweetener (IRE)T: Richard Woollacott newtonabbotracing.com Selling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 3/1
06 May 15 Uttoxeter Comical Red (GB)T: Mark Gillard 32red Casino Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 5/1
30 Apr 15 Newton Abbot Lamb's Cross (GB)T: Mark Gillard Sis Streaming Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 6/1
20 Apr 15 Newton Abbot Dont Call Me Oscar (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Newton Abbot Race On Twitter Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good · 11 ran PU 8/1
19 Apr 15 Wincanton Karl Marx (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Simon Coombs 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 2nd 5/2F
06 Apr 15 Fakenham Katiebyrne (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Tour Of Britain 12th Sept At Fakenham Mares' Maiden Open NH Flat RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 6/1
06 Apr 15 Fakenham Dont Call Me Oscar (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Cecil And Sheila Buttifant Memorial Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran UR 2/1F
06 Apr 15 Fakenham Storm On By (IRE)T: Sarah Humphrey Big C Ladies Raceday 31st May Selling HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran PU 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mr Paul John's strike rate?
Mr Paul John has won 15 of 145 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr Paul John's Fair A/E?
1.34, from 145 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).