Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 13%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
11.8%−0.7
n=51 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −8.75
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
7.7%−4.8
n=13 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
4.5%−8.0
n=22 · A/E 0.41 · £1 −20.00
When favourite
12.5%
n=8 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −6.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
13%+0.5
n=77 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −16.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
11.1%−1.4
n=9 · A/E 1.95 · £1 +4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going5.6% vs 12.5% · n=36
Over 2m5f – 3m15.2% vs 12.5% · n=33
In Hurdle races10% vs 12.5% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase44613.6%−16.00
Hurdle30310%−10.50
NH Flat5120%+8.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3625.6%−18.00
Soft19526.3%+3.75
Good to Soft17211.8%−6.25
Heavy8112.5%+1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham800%−8.00
Huntingdon6116.7%−1.00
Fontwell600%−6.00
Ludlow5120%−1.25
Leicester5120%+4.00
Aintree4125%+9.00
Southwell4125%−1.25
Warwick4125%−2.00
Bangor-on-Dee300%−3.00
Stratford300%−3.00
Kelso300%−3.00
Newton Abbot300%−3.00
Chepstow200%−2.00
Ayr2150%+4.00
Hexham2150%+1.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 531412.9%−12.75
Class 429310.3%−10.75
Class 315213.3%+7.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 611100%+1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite10220%0.61−4.25
2nd–3rd fav26519.2%0.97−1.75
4th–6th fav2827.1%0.81−10.50
7th+ in betting1616.3%1.75−3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m33515.2%−7.00
2m1f – 2m4f18422.2%+11.50
Over 3m1715.9%−12.00
1m5f – 2m1100%−11.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20237228.6%−1.50
202425312%−1.50
20253339.1%−11.25
202615213.3%−5.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4137.3%−21.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners3339.1%−18.25
8-10 runners26415.4%−4.50
2-4 runners8112.5%−5.25
17+ runners7114.3%+6.00
11-13 runners4125%+4.50
14-16 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 51 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
020292260000000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,743 runs since 2017 (765 horses).
Passing Glance (GB)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,578 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Beneficial (GB)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Progeny have won 10.8% of 573 runs since 2023 (148 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.4% from 156.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 80 · newest first
The latest 50 of 80 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 March 2023 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026
KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 28 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 28 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
What is Mr Sean O'Connor's strike rate?
Mr Sean O'Connor has won 10 of 80 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Sean O'Connor in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Sean O'Connor's Fair A/E?
0.87, from 79 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Sean O'Connor·SR 12.5%·A/E 0.87
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