What is Niki O'Shea's strike rate?

Niki O'Shea has won 22 of 426 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Niki O'Shea do best at?

Limerick by strike rate: 5 wins from 45 rides (11.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Niki O'Shea ride most for?

Conor O'Dwyer, with 142 rides since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (10.6%).

What is Niki O'Shea's Fair A/E?

1.19, from 426 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Niki O'Shea

426 rides in the lifetime window · 223 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2013 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

22–426

Wins / Runs

5.2%

Strike rate

n=426

57 (13%)

Placed

1.19

Fair A/E

n=426 · 0.86 incl. margin

−210.00

£1 level stake

n=426 at SP · −49.3%

£236k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

16.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 70 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.19).

Deterministic profile computed from 426 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Conor O'Dwyer: 10.6% from 142

The read

The record is strongest at Limerick (11.1%, n=45), clear of the rider's 5.2% baseline. First rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 1.4% (n=207, Fair A/E 0.44). Conor O'Dwyer supplied 33% of the rides and beats the rider's average (10.6% vs 5.2%, A/E 1.87) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 41 rides, 5.2pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Menolly Homes Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse (Apr 2006, £84,500).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

1.4%−3.8

n=207 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −170.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

0%−5.2

n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.1%−2.1

n=97 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −56.50

When favourite

28.6%

n=7 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −0.25

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

4.7%−0.5

n=386 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −213.75

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.5%−1.7

n=343 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −225.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.2

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Conor O'Dwyer 10.6% vs 5.2% · n=142

At Limerick 11.1% vs 5.2% · n=45

On first rides for the horse 1.4% vs 5.2% · n=207

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.2% · n=41

With horses switching code 1.1% vs 5.2% · n=94

On Good to Firm going 0% vs 5.2% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 323 15 4.6% −184.50

Chase 103 7 6.8% −25.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 172 7 4.1% −114.50

Heavy 118 7 5.9% −63.25

Good 55 5 9.1% −7.25

Good to Firm 34 0 0% −34.00

Good to Soft 33 2 6.1% +12.00

Firm 14 1 7.1% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Limerick 45 5 11.1% −17.25

Cork 33 1 3% −25.00

Fairyhouse 32 0 0% −32.00

Navan 29 0 0% −29.00

Down Royal 26 0 0% −26.00

Punchestown 25 1 4% +9.00

Gowran Park 22 1 4.5% −13.00

Wexford 20 0 0% −20.00

Clonmel 18 1 5.6% −7.00

Naas 16 1 6.3% −10.50

Ballinrobe 16 2 12.5% −0.50

Sligo 16 2 12.5% −6.75

Kilbeggan 16 3 18.8% +25.00

Leopardstown 15 0 0% −15.00

Thurles 15 2 13.3% +14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 12 0 0% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 12 4 33.3% 1.98 +4.00

2nd–3rd fav 33 8 24.2% 2.16 +21.00

4th–6th fav 77 7 9.1% 1.48 −1.00

7th+ in betting 304 3 1% 0.37 −234.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.9% completed · 426 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 103 76.7% 8 2 12 1 1

Hurdle 323 90.1% 5 6 21 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Donttellmother (IRE) 12 1 5 8 Aug 09

Hangover (IRE) 11 3 5 29 Dec 10

Hansupfordetroit (IRE) 9 2 3 28 May 13

Hilts (IRE) 9 1 4 11 Sep 09

Champion Gold (IRE) 7 0 1 15 Jul 12

Dont Tell De Purty (GB) 7 0 0 4 May 12

Ar Aghaidh Leat (IRE) 7 1 1 2 Jan 11

Enter The Indian (IRE) 6 1 3 29 Oct 12

The Real Rupee (IRE) 6 0 0 5 Oct 10

Mont Tresor (FR) 6 0 2 17 Mar 10

Mister Castlefield (IRE) 6 0 0 14 Feb 10

Noirgem (IRE) 6 0 0 13 Aug 09

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 223 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

582345664993

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardConor O'Dwyer

33% of all rides
10.6% SR · A/E 1.87

TrainerRWSR£1

Conor O'Dwyer 142 15 10.6% −1.50

Aidan Anthony Howard 38 3 7.9% −11.50

P J Rothwell 36 1 2.8% −25.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£692k

Prize money

2006

Best season · 11 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Wishwillow Lord (IRE) — Menolly Homes Handicap Hurdle Fairyhouse · Apr 2006 · Grade B

£84,500

Brave Right (IRE) — Martinstown Opportunity Final Handicap Hurdle (81-123) Punchestown · Apr 2007

£19,530

Ardlea Star (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase Navan · Mar 2007

£17,966

Notable horses

Hangover (IRE) Walkin Aisy (GB) Hansupfordetroit (IRE) Aoife's Tiny (IRE) Uncle Tom Cobley (IRE) Noble Prize (GER)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 16.7% · 4–24

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Carroll House (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 6.2% of 1,033 runs since 2008 (133 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 7.7% · 1–13

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Turtle Island (IRE) 7.7% · 1–13

Progeny have won 7.5% of 3,325 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.7% from 215.

Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 9.1% · 1–11

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 10% · 1–10

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 978 · newest first

The latest 50 of 978 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 March 2005 to 28 May 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 May 13 Ballinrobe Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-109)22f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 1st 10/1

19 May 13 Limerick Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Supermacs Dooradoyle Beginners Chase19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 8 ran 5th 10/1

12 May 13 Killarney Latin Prayer (IRE)T: Charles Coakley Killarney Towers Hotel Maiden Hurdle17f · Soft · 16 ran 15th 66/1

04 May 13 Limerick Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Beginners Chase17f · Yielding · 15 ran 8th 25/1

22 Apr 13 Cork Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard July 12th BBQ Evening Beginners Chase16f · Heavy · 18 ran 6th 20/1

16 Apr 13 Fairyhouse Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard New Children's Playground Beginners Chase21.5f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 6/1

26 Dec 12 Leopardstown King Malik (IRE)T: Conor O'Dwyer Download The Free Racing Post Mobile App. Handicap Hurdle (80-116)18f · Soft · 23 ran 18th 25/1

29 Oct 12 Naas Enter The Indian (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Joe Mallon Motors Supporting Kildare GAA Handicap Hurdle (80-116)16f · Soft · 17 ran 14th 12/1

28 Oct 12 Wexford Daggers Bond (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-109)18f · Good · 15 ran 15th 16/1

14 Oct 12 Limerick Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Fergus O'toole Memorial Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)21f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 7th 10/1

13 Oct 12 Fairyhouse Daggers Bond (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Become A Member Of Fairyhouse Handicap Hurdle (81-116)16f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran PU 16/1

29 Sep 12 Navan Soitoldyou (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Drogheda Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Soft · 27 ran 10th 16/1

24 Sep 12 Ballinrobe Ballylibert (IRE)T: Robert Tyner www.totegoracingclub.com Beginners Chase17f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 10th 33/1

24 Sep 12 Ballinrobe Hansupfordetroit (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Irish Tote Betting Now Available In Paddy Power Shops Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 1st 7/2

31 Aug 12 Killarney Back To Drumdeel (IRE)T: Robert Tyner Killarney Oaks Hotel Beginners Chase20.5f · Soft · 12 ran 6th 40/1

15 Jul 12 Sligo Champion Gold (IRE)T: Charles Coakley Ladies Day At Sligo 9th August Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)20f · Good · 16 ran 13th 16/1

13 Jul 12 Downpatrick Woodbrook Lad (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Joe Rea Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Good · 15 ran 9th 25/1

10 Jul 12 Roscommon Do Raff (IRE)T: Paul John Gilligan Martinstown Opportunity Maiden Hurdle20f · Soft · 18 ran PU 40/1

07 Jul 12 Bellewstown Push And Boots (IRE)T: Aidan Anthony Howard Sam's Potatoes Maiden Hurdle24f · Soft · 12 ran PU 66/1

26 Jun 12 Ballinrobe Champion Gold (IRE)T: Charles Coakley Mask Pavillion Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)20f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Niki O'Shea's strike rate?: Niki O'Shea has won 22 of 426 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Niki O'Shea do best at?: Limerick by strike rate: 5 wins from 45 rides (11.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Niki O'Shea ride most for?: Conor O'Dwyer, with 142 rides since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (10.6%).
What is Niki O'Shea's Fair A/E?: 1.19, from 426 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.