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Trainer profile

Michael J McDonagh

305 runners in the last 5 seasons · 24 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 3 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
21–305
Wins / Runs
6.9%
Strike rate
n=305
78 (26%)
Placed
0.86
Fair A/E
n=305 · 0.69 incl. margin
−129.34
£1 level stake
n=305 at SP · −42.4%
£341k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.86).

Deterministic profile computed from 305 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Sean O'Keeffe: 6.7% from 89
The read

The record is strongest at Limerick (16.4%, n=61), clear of the yard's 6.9% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.6% (n=56, Fair A/E 0.63). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.54 and −69.50 to a £1 stake over 123 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sean O'Keeffe rides 29% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.7%, A/E 0.77). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (15.2%, n=46) and in Chase races (11.8%, n=144). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 1.6% over 61 runners, 5.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.41 across 160 runners (2.5% strike, −106.80 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Campion Insurance Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick (Dec 2023, £26,550). The stable star of the record: Black Zero (IRE) — 7 wins from 62 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.6%−3.3
n=56 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.9
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.9
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.9
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
7.7%+0.8
n=26 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
25%
n=24 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −6.09
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.1%−2.8
n=123 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −69.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
8.3%+1.4
n=12 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −4.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Limerick 16.4% vs 6.9% · n=61
Off a 8-14-day break 15.2% vs 6.9% · n=46
In Chase races 11.8% vs 6.9% · n=144
In Hurdle races 2.5% vs 6.9% · n=160
Over 1m5f – 2m 1.6% vs 6.9% · n=61
On Good going 2.2% vs 6.9% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 160 4 2.5% −106.80
Chase 144 17 11.8% −21.54
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 115 8 7% −46.50
Heavy 93 10 10.8% −15.34
Good to Soft 49 2 4.1% −31.50
Good 46 1 2.2% −34.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 61 10 16.4% +21.25
Gowran Park 26 1 3.8% −24.09
Galway 20 1 5% −12.00
Tipperary 19 2 10.5% +5.25
Naas 19 1 5.3% −14.00
Fairyhouse 19 1 5.3% −6.00
Cork 18 0 0% −18.00
Clonmel 18 1 5.6% −14.25
Thurles 18 0 0% −18.00
Ballinrobe 16 0 0% −16.00
Punchestown 15 0 0% −15.00
Navan 9 0 0% −9.00
Roscommon 9 0 0% −9.00
Killarney 7 0 0% −7.00
Wexford 7 1 14.3% −1.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 12 1 8.3% −4.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 7 22.6% 0.98 −9.34
2nd–3rd fav 49 3 6.1% 0.45 −29.00
4th–6th fav 68 8 11.8% 1.50 +4.00
7th+ in betting 157 3 1.9% 0.57 −95.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.5% completed · 304 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 144 79.9% 7 4 17 1 0
Hurdle 160 92.5% 0 1 10 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Krabat (IRE) 37 3 16 25 May 26
Happy Dreams (FR) 33 7 13 8 Mar 26
Nazine (IRE) 29 0 4 18 Nov 25
Battle Of Mirbat (IRE)from Kieran Purcell 28 3 9 21 May 26
Fly De Megaudais (FR) 28 1 4 5 Oct 24
Positive Thinker (IRE) 26 3 16 18 Oct 26
Chainofconsequence (IRE)from Aengus King 25 2 7 1 Apr 25
Stily (FR) 19 0 5 11 Oct 26
Thelonglad (IRE) 12 0 0 5 Feb 25
Springboard (IRE) 11 2 3 6 Oct 26
Kaytana (IRE) 11 0 0 21 Mar 23
El Phenomeno (FR) 9 0 0 31 Mar 26
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 24 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
081080256048915
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSean O'Keeffe
29% of all rides
6.7% SR · A/E 0.77
RiderRWSR£1
Sean O'Keeffe 89 6 6.7% −53.29
Cian Quirke 86 5 5.8% −34.00
Cathal Landers 46 3 6.5% −29.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
51
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£729k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Happy Dreams (FR) — Campion Insurance Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (0-150) (Listed) Limerick · Dec 2023 · Listed
£26,550
Black Zero (IRE) — Buy Twilight Racing Tickets Online Handicap Chase Limerick · Mar 2017
£15,375
Wildcatted (GER) — At The Races Mullacurry Cup Handicap Hurdle Bellewstown · Aug 2016
£12,300
Notable horses
Black Zero (IRE) Happy Dreams (FR) Spancil Hill (IRE) Wildcatted (GER) Fly De Megaudais (FR) Krabat (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Ocovango (GB) 9.1% · 8–88
Progeny have won 9.4% of 2,981 runs since 2008 (302 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.1% from 191.
Aolus (GER) 8.1% · 3–37
Progeny have won 6.3% of 63 runs since 2008 (4 horses).
Zanzibari (USA) 21.2% · 7–33
Progeny have won 9.2% of 1,309 runs since 2008 (139 horses). Strongest on Good going: 14.2% from 225. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 170.
Raven's Pass (USA) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 11.2% of 4,936 runs since 2008 (453 horses).
Bonbon Rose (FR) 3.6% · 1–28
Progeny have won 13.3% of 465 runs since 2008 (45 horses).
Clovis Du Berlais (FR) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 9.4% of 754 runs since 2008 (111 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.6% from 151. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5.7% from 140.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,017 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,017 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Positive Thinker (IRE)J: Cian Quirke BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Steeplechase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 33/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Sunrise Strider (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 10th 25/1
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Cian Quirke Kendellen Construction Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Good · 14 ran 4th 8/1
06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Ryans Cleaning Handicap Steeplechase18f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 1st 7/1
06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) N Kelleher (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 18th 200/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Positive Thinker (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 11th 20/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Cian Quirke Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 6th 10/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle18f · Good · 18 ran 5th 33/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Philip Donovan Dan & Breda Byrne Memorial Handicap Steeplechase19.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 6th 12/1
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Alan O'Sullivan Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17f · Good · 16 ran 6th 10/1
29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Kiltinan (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Tote Guaranteed 50K Placepot Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 20 ran PU 50/1
25 May 26 Ballinrobe Krabat (IRE)J: Cian Quirke McHale F5 Range Veterans Handicap Chase19.5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 28/1
21 May 26 Limerick Battle Of Mirbat (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Handicap Chase24.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 4/1
21 May 26 Limerick Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Maloney's Bus Hire & Martin's Coaches Handicap Chase20f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 9th 4/1J
21 May 26 Limerick Stily (FR)J: Sean O'Keeffe Calor Gas Handicap Chase (0-100)17.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran PU 11/2
28 Apr 26 Punchestown Krabat (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 24 ran 14th 50/1
18 Apr 26 Bellewstown Billy Bob (IRE)J: Mr C J Shine Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Yielding · 15 ran 14th 10/1
16 Apr 26 Limerick Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Big Boss Group Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 1st 8/1
10 Apr 26 Wexford Krabat (IRE)J: Cian Quirke BOYLE Sports Supporting Irish Racing Veterans Handicap Chase19.5f · Yielding · 15 ran 4th 10/1
31 Mar 26 Limerick El Phenomeno (FR)J: Sean O'Keeffe Ryans Cleaning Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 12 ran 10th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael J McDonagh's strike rate?
Michael J McDonagh has won 21 of 305 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.9% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael J McDonagh do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 10 wins from 61 runners (16.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael J McDonagh?
Sean O'Keeffe, with 89 runners since 2022 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (6.7%).
Is Michael J McDonagh in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Michael J McDonagh's Fair A/E?
0.86, from 305 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).