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Jockey profile

Paddy Merrigan

124 rides in the lifetime window · 85 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Dec 2019 100% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
3–124
Wins / Runs
2.4%
Strike rate
n=124
20 (16%)
Placed
0.47
Fair A/E
n=124 · 0.39 incl. margin
−83.00
£1 level stake
n=124 at SP · −66.9%
£38,274
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 10 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.47).

Deterministic profile computed from 124 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance First rides: 2.5% Claiming: 3.3%
The read

The rider also read well in Class 4 (5.7%, n=35). The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.36 across 60 rides (1.7% strike, −43.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the totesport.com Summer Plate Handicap Chase at Market Rasen (Jul 2007, £37,063). The standout partner of the record was Dream Castle (IRE) — 5 wins from 10 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.5%+0.1
n=80 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −56.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
6.9%+4.5
n=29 · A/E 1.69 · £1 −5.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
3.3%+0.9
n=60 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −32.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−2.4
n=48 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −48.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 4 5.7% vs 2.4% · n=35
On Soft going 4.8% vs 2.4% · n=42
When claiming 3.3% vs 2.4% · n=60 · A/E 0.48
Over 1m5f – 2m 1.7% vs 2.4% · n=60 · A/E 0.36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 86 2 2.3% −58.00
Chase 37 1 2.7% −24.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 42 2 4.8% −18.00
Good 35 1 2.9% −18.00
Heavy 19 0 0% −19.00
Good to Soft 18 0 0% −18.00
Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fontwell 6 0 0% −6.00
Clonmel 5 0 0% −5.00
Wexford 5 0 0% −5.00
Chepstow 5 0 0% −5.00
Uttoxeter 4 0 0% −4.00
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Punchestown 4 0 0% −4.00
Tipperary 4 0 0% −4.00
Down Royal 4 0 0% −4.00
Wincanton 4 0 0% −4.00
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Ludlow 4 0 0% −4.00
Ascot 4 0 0% −4.00
Navan 4 0 0% −4.00
Ffos Las 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 35 2 5.7% −7.00
Class 3 18 0 0% −18.00
Class 5 12 1 8.3% +1.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 14 0 0% 0.00 −14.00
4th–6th fav 36 3 8.3% 1.19 +5.00
7th+ in betting 72 0 0% 0.00 −72.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
78% completed · 123 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 37 67.6% 2 4 5 0 1
Hurdle 86 82.6% 3 2 10 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Blazing Buck (GB) 5 1 2 30 Jan 10
Empire Escape (IRE) 4 0 0 5 Dec 19
Roachdale House (IRE) 4 0 0 9 Jul 19
Steelambition (IRE) 3 0 1 7 Oct 19
Pingaro De La Vire (FR) 3 0 0 16 Dec 09
Noakarad De Verzee (FR) 3 0 2 4 Dec 09
Dinarius (GB) 3 1 1 4 Dec 09
Walls Way (GB) 3 0 0 29 Nov 09
Durrow Dancer (IRE) 2 0 0 30 Nov 19
Steel Tornado (IRE) 2 0 0 31 Oct 19
Subset (IRE) 2 0 0 15 Oct 19
Invincible Cave (IRE) 2 0 1 5 Jul 19
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 85 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0000000·0080
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Paul W Flynn 20 0 0% −20.00
Tony Carroll 16 1 6.3% +1.00
Gordon Elliott 13 0 0% −13.00
Giles Smyly 9 0 0% −9.00
Alex Hales 8 1 12.5% +3.00
S J Mahon 5 0 0% −5.00
D Broad 5 0 0% −5.00
David Arbuthnot 4 0 0% −4.00
Miss H Lewis 3 0 0% −3.00
Keith Goldsworthy 3 0 0% −3.00
J R Barry 2 0 0% −2.00
Alistair Whillans 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
70
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£581k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 30 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Iron Man (FR) — totesport.com Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Listed) Market Rasen · Jul 2007 · Listed
£37,063
Iron Man (FR) — bluesqcasino.com Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Sep 2007 · Class 2
£31,315
Souffleur (GB) — totesportgames.com Handicap Hurdle Aintree · Nov 2007 · Class 2
£18,789
Notable horses
Dream Castle (IRE) Jorobaden (FR) Souffleur (GB) Iron Man (FR) Nite Fox (IRE) Broke Road (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fraam (GB) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,027 runs since 2008 (136 horses).
Karinga Bay (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,407 runs since 2008 (315 horses).
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,634 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Stowaway (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 11.3% of 7,190 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 124.
Bertolini (USA) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Roakarad (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 14.6% of 89 runs since 2008 (18 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 676 · newest first

The latest 50 of 676 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 26 December 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
26 Dec 19 Down Royal Jaunty Warrior (GB)T: Gordon Elliott I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle20f · Soft · 18 ran 14th 25/1
16 Dec 19 Naas Miss Aloud (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Clinton Higgins Chartered Accountants Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 21 ran 2nd 33/1
08 Dec 19 Cork Elusive Rebeldom (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Charleville Cheese Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 24 ran 19th 14/1
08 Dec 19 Cork Gealach (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Galtee 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran 4th 12/1
05 Dec 19 Clonmel Empire Escape (IRE)T: D Broad Clonmel Racecourse Supporters Club Only 90 Beginners Chase (Div 2)16.5f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 100/1
30 Nov 19 Fairyhouse Durrow Dancer (IRE)T: Paul W Flynn Kettles Country House Supporting Fingal Ravens GAA Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 25 ran 24th 100/1
30 Nov 19 Fairyhouse Chavi Artist (IRE)T: Thomas Mullins Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Beginners Chase21f · Soft · 18 ran 14th 100/1
24 Nov 19 Navan Song Of Namibia (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Davis Civil Engineering Handicap Hurdle16f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 33/1
17 Nov 19 Cork Fairoffthecross (IRE)T: Donal Hassett Children Under 14 Race For Free Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 24 ran 19th 150/1
10 Nov 19 Navan Empire Escape (IRE)T: D Broad Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase17f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 13th 100/1
07 Nov 19 Thurles Durrow Dancer (IRE)T: Paul W Flynn Templemore Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran 8th 125/1
02 Nov 19 Down Royal Empire Escape (IRE)T: D Broad Tayto Group Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 17 ran 14th 66/1
31 Oct 19 Clonmel Steel Tornado (IRE)T: J R Barry Cashel Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 100/1
27 Oct 19 Wexford Steel Tornado (IRE)T: J R Barry Casey Cattle Slats Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 66/1
15 Oct 19 Punchestown Subset (IRE)T: Paul W Flynn Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Beginners Chase16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran UR 100/1
07 Oct 19 Tipperary Steelambition (IRE)T: Paul W Flynn Tipperary Handicap Chase20f · Yielding · 12 ran PU 40/1
07 Oct 19 Tipperary Subset (IRE)T: Paul W Flynn www.tipperaryraces.ie Beginners Chase17f · Yielding · 9 ran F 25/1
28 Sep 19 Navan Empire Escape (IRE)T: D Broad Bar One Racing Download The App Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 25 ran 22nd 20/1
09 Jul 19 Roscommon Roachdale House (IRE)T: Paul W Flynn Abbey Hotel, Roscommon Handicap Chase16.5f · Good · 9 ran UR 10/1
05 Jul 19 Wexford Invincible Cave (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Neville Hotels Beginners Chase25f · Good · 7 ran 5th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paddy Merrigan's strike rate?
Paddy Merrigan has won 3 of 124 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paddy Merrigan's Fair A/E?
0.47, from 124 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).