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Trainer profile

David Martin Kelly

359 runners in the lifetime window · 49 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Oct 2014 93% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
19–359
Wins / Runs
5.3%
Strike rate
n=359
71 (20%)
Placed
0.97
Fair A/E
n=359 · 0.73 incl. margin
−98.00
£1 level stake
n=359 at SP · −27.3%
£220k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 359 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Jun–Jul Claiming riders: 5.5%
The read

The record is strongest at Kilbeggan (9.1%, n=33), clear of the yard's 5.3% baseline. The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (15.2%, n=33) and in Chase races (9.5%, n=42). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 33 runners, 5.3pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fired Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.4%−2.9
n=82 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −51.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
9.1%+3.8
n=11 · A/E 2.66 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.3
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.3
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.3
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
When favourite
42.9%
n=7 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.5%+0.2
n=253 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −65.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break 15.2% vs 5.3% · n=33
With horses switching code 0% vs 5.3% · n=41
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.3% · n=33
In Chase races 9.5% vs 5.3% · n=42
On Good to Firm going 8.9% vs 5.3% · n=45
At Kilbeggan 9.1% vs 5.3% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 279 14 5% −64.00
Chase 42 4 9.5% −5.00
Flat 24 1 4.2% −15.00
NH Flat 14 0 0% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 102 7 6.9% +16.50
Heavy 95 3 3.2% −52.00
Good 84 5 6% −23.25
Good to Firm 45 4 8.9% −6.25
Good to Soft 20 0 0% −20.00
Firm 9 0 0% −9.00
Standard (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kilbeggan 33 3 9.1% −0.50
Ballinrobe 32 2 6.3% −20.75
Sligo 30 1 3.3% −4.00
Navan 29 1 3.4% −8.00
Clonmel 26 1 3.8% +8.00
Fairyhouse 22 0 0% −22.00
Gowran Park 18 1 5.6% +8.00
Thurles 18 1 5.6% −3.00
Punchestown 17 1 5.9% −10.00
Limerick 17 1 5.9% −12.00
Wexford 15 1 6.7% −10.50
Down Royal 13 1 7.7% −10.75
Naas 13 1 7.7% +21.00
Roscommon 12 1 8.3% −1.00
Downpatrick 12 0 0% −12.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 13 4 30.8% 1.58 +2.00
2nd–3rd fav 41 3 7.3% 0.61 −27.00
4th–6th fav 70 4 5.7% 0.80 −30.00
7th+ in betting 235 8 3.4% 1.12 −43.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.9% completed · 321 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 42 69% 3 3 7 0 0
Hurdle 279 89.6% 6 4 16 0 3
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Doransfirth (IRE) 26 2 10 8 Aug 11
Via Del Corso (GB)from Paul W Flynn · then Denis Gerard Hogan 25 1 8 23 Oct 14
Missgiloney (IRE)then Denis Gerard Hogan 24 1 7 17 Jan 13
Like The Da (IRE)then J P Fogarty 24 3 9 28 Aug 11
Mind The Steps (IRE) 21 1 3 19 May 12
Benefitthewest (IRE)then Paul W Flynn 18 2 3 14 Jul 13
Good Luck Chuck (IRE)from S Donohoe 14 2 4 26 Aug 14
Brownpolish (GB) 14 1 6 6 Jun 11
Old Magic (IRE)then Sophie Leech 14 0 1 2 Jun 11
Colmanstown Hope (IRE) 14 2 4 27 Mar 10
Lady Beneficial (IRE) 13 0 3 17 Mar 10
King William (IRE) 11 1 4 21 Dec 13
All 49 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 49 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive; 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Denis Gerard Hogan (2) and Paul W Flynn (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0807371456037
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMr K H Clarke
11% of all rides
7.5% SR · A/E 2.04
RiderRWSR£1
Mr K H Clarke 40 3 7.5% −14.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
22
Archived wins
£267k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Killeroran Kash (IRE) — John Mulholland Handicap Hurdle (81-123) Galway · Oct 2006
£14,648
Im A Witness (IRE) — tote Telebet 1850 238 669 Hurdle Roscommon · Jul 2008
£12,093
Good Luck Chuck (IRE) — www.thetote.com Galway Plate Trial Handicap Chase (0-130) Tipperary · Jul 2012
£10,005
Notable horses
Like The Da (IRE) Doransfirth (IRE) Killeroran Kash (IRE) Benefitthewest (IRE) Colmanstown Hope (IRE) Good Luck Chuck (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Beneficial (GB) 6.5% · 2–31
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Flemensfirth (USA) 7.1% · 2–28
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).
Kaieteur (USA) 3.8% · 1–26
Progeny have won 7.4% of 136 runs since 2008 (13 horses).
Close Conflict (USA) 12% · 3–25
Progeny have won 7.8% of 565 runs since 2008 (73 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.8% from 106.
Kyllachy (GB) 4% · 1–25
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Tamayaz (CAN) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 5.4% of 772 runs since 2008 (80 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 505 · newest first

The latest 50 of 505 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 June 2005 to 23 October 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
23 Oct 14 Thurles Via Del Corso (GB)J: A P Heskin Holycross Mares Chase18f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 16/1
01 Oct 14 Sligo Via Del Corso (GB)J: A P Heskin Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Beginners Chase17f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 14/1
23 Sep 14 Ballinrobe Via Del Corso (GB)J: A P Heskin Follow Ballinrobe On Facebook Beginners Chase17.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 16/1
09 Sep 14 Galway Via Del Corso (GB)J: Jonathan Burke O'Leary Insurances Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20.5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 6th 14/1
26 Aug 14 Ballinrobe Good Luck Chuck (IRE)J: Ben Dalton Ballinrobe On Course Vets Handicap Chase (0-109)23f · Good To Firm · 10 ran PU 25/1
19 Aug 14 Sligo Via Del Corso (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Club Sligo Supporting Sligo GAA Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 7/1
14 Aug 14 Tramore Good Luck Chuck (IRE)J: A P Heskin Pat Woodbyrne Memorial Handicap Chase (0-123)23f · Good · 9 ran 8th 20/1
14 Aug 14 Tramore Via Del Corso (GB)J: Damien Melia Like Us On Facebook Handicap (47-75)12f · Yielding · 8 ran 7th 7/1
07 Aug 14 Sligo Via Del Corso (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Leo Mcmorrow Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 12/1
08 Jul 14 Roscommon Good Luck Chuck (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Leo Dolan Memorial Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 20/1
24 Jun 14 Ballinrobe Like The Ma (IRE)J: Mr D Lambe Family Day 22nd July (Mares) (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Good · 16 ran 16th 33/1
24 Jun 14 Ballinrobe Via Del Corso (GB)J: Andrew Leigh John Madden & Sons Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 11/1
21 Jun 14 Gowran Park Moenchengladbach (IRE)J: A P Heskin Byrne Marquees Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Good To Firm · 19 ran 9th 8/1
07 Jun 14 Limerick Via Del Corso (GB)J: Ronan Whelan Greenmount Convention Centre Apprentice Handicap (47-65)8f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 11th 12/1
16 May 14 Kilbeggan Via Del Corso (GB)J: Paul Carberry Like Kilbeggan Racecourse On Facebook Handicap Hurdle (80-116)16f · Good · 12 ran 4th 8/1
08 May 14 Clonmel Via Del Corso (GB)J: Colm O'Donoghue Free Admission For Ladies May 22nd Handicap (47-65)10f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 4th 10/1
22 Apr 14 Ballinrobe Moenchengladbach (IRE)J: A P Heskin Connacht Spring Show May 18th Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Good · 16 ran 5th 12/1
21 Dec 13 Navan King William (IRE)J: Robbie Power Christmas Novice Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 2nd 7/1
30 Nov 13 Fairyhouse King William (IRE)J: Mark Enright Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 16/1
20 Nov 13 Fairyhouse King William (IRE)J: Robert Jones Premier Jump Weekend Hurdle16f · Soft · 4 ran UR 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Martin Kelly's strike rate?
David Martin Kelly has won 19 of 359 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Martin Kelly do best at?
Kilbeggan by strike rate: 3 wins from 33 runners (9.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is David Martin Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 359 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).