What is Rachael McDonald's strike rate?

Rachael McDonald has won 35 of 351 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Rachael McDonald do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 8 wins from 46 rides (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Rachael McDonald ride most for?

Sandy Thomson, with 174 rides since 2008 — 50% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (10.3%).

What is Rachael McDonald's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 349 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Rachael McDonald

351 rides in the lifetime window · 135 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Apr 2021 98% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

35–351

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=351

102 (29%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=349 · 0.86 incl. margin

+54.93

£1 level stake

n=351 at SP · +15.6%

£377k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). Rode mostly for Sandy Thomson — 50% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 351 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Nov–Dec Sandy Thomson: 10.3% from 174 Claiming: 10.2%

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (17.4%, n=46), clear of the rider's 10% baseline. Sandy Thomson supplied 50% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 0.89). The rider also read well in Chase races (15.7%, n=153) and beyond 3m (15.3%, n=59). The record read poorly in Hurdle races — 5.3% over 170 rides, 4.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.61 across 81 rides (6.2% strike, −36.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.1%−1.9

n=135 · A/E 1.05 · £1 +73.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

9.4%−0.6

n=32 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −22.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.8%−2.2

n=102 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −9.62

When favourite

30.4%

n=23 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −4.32

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.2%+0.2

n=344 · A/E 1.02 · £1 +61.93

Big fields · 14+ runners

11.4%+1.4

n=35 · A/E 2.95 · £1 +43.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.0

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With James Ewart 18.9% vs 10% · n=37

In Chase races 15.7% vs 10% · n=153

At Musselburgh 17.4% vs 10% · n=46

In Hurdle races 5.3% vs 10% · n=170

Beyond 3m 15.3% vs 10% · n=59

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 6.2% vs 10% · n=81

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 170 9 5.3% −91.00

Chase 153 24 15.7% +144.68

NH Flat 21 2 9.5% +8.25

Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 148 17 11.5% +71.18

Good to Soft 69 8 11.6% +28.38

Soft 63 6 9.5% +7.00

Heavy 58 4 6.9% −38.63

Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kelso 64 8 12.5% +47.50

Musselburgh 46 8 17.4% −3.82

Ayr 42 5 11.9% −20.00

Hexham 42 4 9.5% −9.50

Perth 30 2 6.7% +3.00

Carlisle 27 2 7.4% +20.00

Newcastle 26 2 7.7% −17.75

Cartmel 18 3 16.7% +10.50

Sedgefield 15 0 0% −15.00

Wetherby 9 0 0% −9.00

Doncaster 6 0 0% −6.00

Market Rasen 6 1 16.7% +75.00

Haydock 5 0 0% −5.00

Catterick 4 0 0% −4.00

Newcastle (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 156 17 10.9% −1.49

Class 5 95 7 7.4% +52.17

Class 3 59 7 11.9% +19.00

Class 2 20 1 5% −9.00

Class 6 20 3 15% −4.75

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 30 8 26.7% 0.96 −7.82

2nd–3rd fav 76 8 10.5% 0.65 −38.25

4th–6th fav 129 12 9.3% 1.15 +10.00

7th+ in betting 116 7 6% 1.84 +91.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83% completed · 323 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 153 80.4% 4 7 18 1 0

Hurdle 170 85.3% 7 2 16 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pena Dorada (IRE) 25 4 11 12 Oct 19

Arthurs Secret (GB) 18 1 7 26 Feb 20

John Williams (IRE) 17 4 6 6 Nov 19

Buckled (GB) 15 2 3 3 Jan 20

Harry The Viking (GB) 13 3 6 1 Feb 20

Blue Kascade (IRE) 11 2 5 9 Dec 19

Veauce De Sivola (FR) 8 1 4 14 Mar 20

Rowdy Rocher (IRE) 8 2 2 15 Feb 18

Nendrum (IRE) 7 0 1 1 Jan 19

Ashjan (GB) 6 0 1 22 Mar 21

Mcgowan's Pass (GB) 6 1 2 18 Feb 19

Berkshire Downs (GB) 6 0 2 14 Feb 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 135 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1010874102101451712

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSandy Thomson

50% of all rides
10.3% SR · A/E 0.89

TrainerRWSR£1

Sandy Thomson 174 18 10.3% −22.07

James Ewart 37 7 18.9% +52.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

£377k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 10 wins

Harry The Viking (GB) — Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase Kelso · Dec 2018 · Class 3

£31,320

Full Jack (FR) — Bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Musselburgh · Feb 2018 · Class 2

£25,117

Harry The Viking (GB) — Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase Kelso · Dec 2016 · Class 3

£25,024

Notable horses

Pena Dorada (IRE) John Williams (IRE) Harry The Viking (GB) Buckled (GB) Blue Kascade (IRE) Rowdy Rocher (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Key Of Luck (USA) 16% · 4–25

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.

Sakhee's Secret (GB) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,866 runs since 2012 (253 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.3% from 772.

Midnight Legend (GB) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Presenting (GB) 23.5% · 4–17

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Sir Harry Lewis (USA) 23.1% · 3–13

Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.

Kaieteur (USA) 18.2% · 2–11

Progeny have won 7.4% of 136 runs since 2010 (13 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 351 · newest first

The latest 50 of 351 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 April 2013 to 19 April 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Apr 21 Hexham Abrach Road (GB)T: Ian Duncan Download The N-E Bet App Today Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 14 ran PU 28/1

11 Apr 21 Kelso Empire De Maulde (FR)T: James Ewart Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 5/1

10 Apr 21 Newcastle Kitty Fisher (IRE)T: Sandy Forster Vertem Investing For The Future Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 20.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 50/1

10 Apr 21 Newcastle Ascot De Bruyere (FR)T: James Ewart Vertem-Leading The Field Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Good · 5 ran F 13/2

30 Mar 21 Newcastle Bullion (FR)T: James Ewart Download The QuinnBet App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 23.5f · Good · 11 ran 5th 10/1

30 Mar 21 Newcastle Nikgarde (FR)T: James Ewart quinnbet.com Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20.5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 9/2

30 Mar 21 Newcastle Muhtamar (FR)T: James Ewart QuinnBet Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran F 28/1

28 Mar 21 Carlisle Lord Roco (GB)T: James Ewart Baldwinholme Standard Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 10/1

28 Mar 21 Carlisle Feetronie De Kervi (FR)T: James Ewart Scottish Racing Academy Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran UR 500/1

23 Mar 21 Wetherby Aquitaine Boy (FR)T: James Ewart Visit racingtv.com Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 14/1

22 Mar 21 Kelso Ashjan (GB)T: Sandy Forster Belhaven Brewery Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 11/2

22 Mar 21 Kelso Kitty Fisher (IRE)T: Sandy Forster Belhaven Best Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good · 7 ran 7th 40/1

21 Mar 21 Carlisle Brayhill (IRE)T: James Ewart Every Race Live On RacingTV Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 6 ran 1st 20/1

06 Mar 21 Kelso Ashjan (GB)T: Sandy Forster bet365 Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 5/1

25 Feb 21 Sedgefield Ashjan (GB)T: Sandy Forster vickers.bet Live Casino Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 8/1

23 Feb 21 Wetherby Ettila De Sivola (FR)T: James Ewart Follow RacingTV On Twitter Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 6/1

22 Feb 21 Carlisle Aquitaine Boy (FR)T: James Ewart MansionBet Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 17f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 11/2

22 Feb 21 Carlisle Feetronie De Kervi (FR)T: James Ewart MansionBet's Watch And Bet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Soft · 12 ran PU 300/1

16 Feb 21 Carlisle Beat Box (FR)T: James Ewart Racing TV Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 10 ran 8th 15/2

07 Feb 21 Musselburgh Nikgarde (FR)T: James Ewart Pertemps Network Group Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 26f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Rachael McDonald's strike rate?: Rachael McDonald has won 35 of 351 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Rachael McDonald do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 8 wins from 46 rides (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Rachael McDonald ride most for?: Sandy Thomson, with 174 rides since 2008 — 50% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (10.3%).
What is Rachael McDonald's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 349 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.