Tommy Dowling
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.21). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 11% off breaks of two months or more (73 runs).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.3% (n=61, Fair A/E 0.95). Charlie Mann supplied 28% of the rides and beats the rider's average (16.7% vs 9.4%, A/E 1.57) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 61-180-day break (16.7%, n=30) and in Chase races (13.7%, n=73). The market has also underrated the rider in Class 4: Fair A/E 1.44 across 146 rides (12.3% strike, +8.20 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 4.7% over 64 rides, 4.7pts below the baseline.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2009→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 299 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 299 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 July 2009 to 21 March 2018.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Tommy Dowling's strike rate?
- Tommy Dowling has won 28 of 299 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Tommy Dowling ride most for?
- Charlie Mann, with 84 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (16.7%).
- What is Tommy Dowling's Fair A/E?
- 1.21, from 299 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.