1:15 Doncaster
This Listed contest for two-year-olds over 7f at Doncaster on good to soft ground features a compact field of nine where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Nabati heads the numbers with a score of 57, just ahead of Rock Montreal on 55, while Kach Above and Engraved sit on 52 and 51 respectively. With most of the runners unproven on the surface and several making their first attempt at the trip, the race carries plenty of unknowns despite the clear recent form lines on display.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Vega King is the clear front-running type from stall two and looks set to take up that role, while Nabati and Rock Montreal are expected to track comfortably in mid-division. The key question is whether the leader can dictate terms throughout or if a closer such as Kach Above, who usually produces his effort late from stall one, can bridge the gap on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Nabati KTB Selection57/100
Nabati arrives with a solid recent record of 121 and is rated a useful performer. He steps up to 7f for the first time, which introduces a fresh question regarding his stamina. The Charlie Appleby yard holds a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 242 runs, while William Buick has a 22% record at the track from 520 rides. Both trainer and jockey are stepping up in class here with this two-year-old from draw 4. His ability gives him every chance of handling the move into Listed company on ground that remains unproven for him.
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2Rock Montreal55/100
Rock Montreal made a winning start over this exact 7f trip last time and is another stepping up in class. The Roger Varian yard posts a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 401 runs, giving him a solid base at the venue. With only one run on the board the form must be treated with caution, yet he remains an interesting prospect from draw 7. Both trainer and jockey are unproven on good to soft with this colt. His debut success suggests he possesses the raw ability to make an impact if he handles the rise in grade.
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3Kach Above52/100
Kach Above is a useful sort who has won two of his three starts at this trip, including a recent Listed success that underlines his class. Usually held up, he should get a nice tow into the race from his low draw of one. The David Loughnane yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Doncaster from 93 runs, which is a clear concern, while Rowan Scott has a 10% record at the track from 173 rides. He is unproven on good to soft ground. His proven ability at the distance and in Listed company still makes him a major player despite the yard's record here.
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4Engraved51/100
Engraved showed clear promise when placed second on debut over this trip at Newmarket last month. The form looks ordinary, however, and he will need to improve to figure prominently in this higher grade. James Fanshawe has a solid 16% strike rate at Doncaster from 507 runs, while Daniel Muscutt is less prolific with a 9% record from 176 rides at the track. He is unproven on good to soft from draw 5 and steps up in class. His debut effort still leaves him with plenty to find against more battle-hardened rivals.
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5Vega King51/100
Vega King is a useful sort who has already won at this trip on his second start. His subsequent Listed run was a shade below that level but he remains lightly raced and open to improvement from stall two as the front-running type. Burke's modest 9% strike rate at the track from 568 runs suggests he does not dominate here, and he is unproven on good to soft.
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6Forbidden Fire49/100
Forbidden Fire made a winning debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time, a move that asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run on the board. Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate from 444 runs at Doncaster. He is unproven on good to soft and will be held up.
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7Dandyman Dan49/100
Dandyman Dan is a useful performer who has shown a decent level of ability in five starts this year and has been placed at this trip without winning. The form figures suggest he is competitive at this level without being the stand-out. His trainer has a 0% strike rate at the track from two runs and he has shown no win or place from one run on good to soft. He will be held up.
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8Varzi44/100
Varzi has shown fair form in two runs this year, finishing second last time out after winning on debut. He now steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The yard holds a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 568 runs and he is unproven on good to soft while tending to be held up.
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9Minkaas44/100
Minkaas has shown fair form in three runs, finishing third in both of his last two starts after an opening win. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, while the going remains an unknown. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 22 runs at Doncaster and he will be held up from the widest draw.
KTB verdict
Nabati is the KTB Selection and sets a strong standard with his consistent record of 121 and useful level of ability. The combination of the Appleby yard's 23% strike rate at Doncaster and Buick's 22% record at the venue adds considerable strength to his claims as he steps up to 7f and into Listed company. His main dangers are likely to come from Rock Montreal, who showed plenty on debut over the trip, and Kach Above, who brings proven Listed form at this distance despite the yard's modest record here. Engraved and Vega King are next in the order of merit but both face stiff tasks on the figures supplied.
KTB Selection Nabati
This is the narrative read of the 1:15 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Vega King is the front-running type from stall two and is expected to set the pace in a race with a lone-leader shape.
How many runners are stepping up in trip to 7f for the first time?
Nabati, Forbidden Fire, Varzi and Minkaas are all stepping up to 7f for the first time.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Doncaster in this field?
Charlie Appleby and Roger Varian both have a 23% strike rate at Doncaster, the highest in the race.
Who has the best recent form at this trip?
Kach Above has won two of his three starts at this trip including a recent Listed success.
Which horse is the only one with experience on good to soft ground?
Dandyman Dan is the only horse with a run on good to soft, from which he has no win or place.
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