2:22 Redcar
This Class 5 nursery at Redcar over 5f 217yds on good to firm ground brings together a field of eleven two-year-olds where the KTB Fit ratings suggest a competitive but modest contest overall. The top five in the KTB rankings are separated by only 15 points, indicating little between them on paper, though the selection stands out with the highest Fit Score of 68. Most of the runners are dropping in class, several are lightly raced, and the lack of strong course form for many adds an element of guesswork to how they will handle the Redcar straight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in what should prove a fair test. Moonlight Tango is the most obvious leader from stall 7, with Flower Youmzain and Lairy Mary both prone to racing prominently and ready to apply pressure. The majority of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, are held-up performers who will look to come from off the pace, raising the key question of whether the race will fall apart up front or if the closers can time their efforts effectively on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Wondervision KTB Selection68/100
Wondervision is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag, winning over this trip on debut before two placed efforts and a lesser seventh last time out. Dropping back from 6½f looks a sensible move given that earlier 5f success and he now steps down in class. The Jack Channon yard posts a 25% strike rate at Redcar from a small sample of four runs while George Bass has ridden four winners from four rides at the track for a strong A/E of 2.22. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains unproven on good to firm ground with no course form on record.
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2North Star Kodi56/100
North Star Kodi is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form in three starts at maiden level. He has twice tackled this trip without success and remains a question mark at the minimum distance. The Richard and Peter Fahey stable holds a solid 17% strike rate at Redcar from 24 runs although their lightly-raced two-year-olds often need the run. Oisin Orr takes the ride with a respectable 19% strike rate at the track from 111 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record and showed no win or place from his one run on good to firm.
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3Empress Princess55/100
Empress Princess is a modest performer who has shown some ability in two starts, finishing second then third. She steps up in trip today while dropping in class for a yard with a solid 22% strike rate at Redcar from 55 runs. Connor Beasley is aboard though his record at the track reads only 10% from a large sample. Going suitability remains unknown with only two runs on the clock overall and she has no course form on record.
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4Bigalo53/100
Bigalo has been a consistent performer in modest company, with six placed efforts from eight starts including two seconds at this track. He handles the trip but has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. The Roger Fell yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at Redcar from 225 runs and Joanna Mason takes the mount. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has course form reading 2nd, 3rd and 6th while dropping in class.
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5Onslaught53/100
Onslaught is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in five starts. He has twice run over today's trip without success and now tries first-time headgear. The Richard and Peter Fahey stable has a solid 17% strike rate at Redcar from 24 runs and Billy Garritty rides with a 12% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up with high confidence and dropping in class, he has no course form on record and showed no win or place from his one run on good to firm.
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6Flower Youmzain52/100
Flower Youmzain is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including a placed effort at today's trip from two attempts. Recent efforts of 5433 suggest she is competitive at this level but lacks a clear edge while dropping in class. Usually races handily on or close to the lead and Kevin Ryan has a 12% strike rate at Redcar from 735 runs.
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7Cheeky Chesca50/100
Cheeky Chesca is a modest performer who has shown her best form at this trip, winning once and placing on three other occasions from six starts. She has run well at this track before, finishing second here on her penultimate start, and has been competitive on good to firm ground without winning while stepping up in class. The Tim Easterby yard's modest record at Redcar tempers expectations.
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8Moonlight Tango46/100
Moonlight Tango is a modest performer who won a nursery at Musselburgh in June before failing to build on it in three subsequent starts. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, while the small sample on good to firm ground leaves suitability unknown. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and Kevin Ryan has a 12% strike rate from 735 runs at Redcar.
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9Mubehir45/100
Mubehir is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date. Recent efforts of 0728 suggest he is struggling to make an impact even at this level while stepping up in trip and drawn wide in stall 10. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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10Lairy Mary38/100
Lairy Mary is a limited filly whose recent form has been patchy at best. She has shown ability on good to firm ground with a win and two places from five runs but steps up in trip today having failed to win in two prior attempts at this distance while stepping up in class. Usually races handily on or close to the lead and the yard has an 8% strike rate from over 2000 runs at Redcar.
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11Excessive33/100
Excessive is a limited performer who has shown little since a fair debut fourth. He has failed to place in four subsequent starts and is now trying to bounce back from a poor effort last time while unproven on good to firm. Usually held up and producing his effort late and the trainer has an 8% strike rate at the track from a huge sample of runners.
KTB verdict
Wondervision is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a 5f win already on his record, the drop back from 6½f into a lower grade looks well judged and the combination of trainer and jockey both operating at 25% at Redcar adds appeal despite his held-up style. The selection has the highest KTB Fit Score in the field and can capitalise if the prominent runners go hard early in a genuinely-run race. Main dangers are the consistent Bigalo with his placed form at the track, the progressive Empress Princess dropping in class, and the first-time headgear applied to Onslaught who shares the same yard as the second-placed North Star Kodi.
KTB Selection Wondervision
This is the narrative read of the 2:22 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course form at Redcar?
Bigalo has three runs here recording 2nd, 3rd and 6th while Cheeky Chesca has two runs here recording 2nd and 5th.
Which runners are proven on good to firm ground?
Empress Princess is placed from one run on good to firm, Cheeky Chesca is placed twice from six runs on good to firm, Lairy Mary has a win and two places from five runs on good to firm, Mubehir is placed once from three runs on good to firm. Wondervision, Excessive and Moonlight Tango have no runs on the surface.
How many runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Only Onslaught is wearing first-time headgear.
Which stable has the strongest strike rate at Redcar according to the supplied data?
James Tate has a 22% strike rate at Redcar from 55 runs, the highest among the trainers represented.
Which horses are dropping in class for this nursery?
Wondervision, Empress Princess, Bigalo, Onslaught and Flower Youmzain are all dropping in class.
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