3:55 Leopardstown
The 3:55 at Leopardstown brings together a competitive field of nine for the Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes, a Group 1 contest over a mile on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings identify a tight bunch at the top with four principals separated by only six points, underlining the quality and depth on show in this Class 1 event. Fallen Angel heads the KTB order on the back of smart course form and a trainer who has been operating at a 35% strike rate at the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Fallen Angel's front-running style means he is likely to secure an uncontested lead from the outset. With the majority of the field, including Precise, Blue Bolt, True Love and the remainder, all tending to be held up and producing their efforts late, the race will revolve around whether anyone can close the gap on the uncontested leader in the straight. That early advantage could prove decisive on good ground, posing the key question of whether the closers possess enough finishing speed to reel in a clear front-runner over the mile.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fallen Angel KTB Selection69/100
Fallen Angel is a smart performer with solid course form, having won here from two starts at Leopardstown. He has won three times on good ground and four times at this trip overall, though his recent form figures of 110-43 suggest he is vulnerable to sharper types at this Group 1 level. K R Burke has a strong 35% strike rate at Leopardstown from 20 runs with an A/E of 2.02, while the trainer and jockey combination shows 19 wins from 79 rides for a 24% strike rate and A/E of 1.07. James Doyle has a 14% strike rate at the track from 14 rides. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to enjoy the uncontested lead indicated by the race's pace shape.
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2Precise66/100
Precise is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already won three times at this trip and handles good ground well with three wins from four starts on it. A P O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample of 2983 runs with an A/E of 0.88, and Ryan Moore adds a 33% strike rate at the track from 248 rides with an A/E of 0.9. The trainer and jockey combination records 669 wins from 2522 rides for a 27% strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be aiming to come from off the pace to challenge the likely clear leader.
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3Blue Bolt64/100
Blue Bolt is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order with four straight wins from his last five starts. He has won seven of nine starts at this trip and handles good ground well with two wins from three attempts. Andrew Balding has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from one run, offering little guidance, while Colin Keane brings a 14% strike rate at the track from 893 rides with an A/E of 0.84. The trainer and jockey partnership shows 19 wins from 56 rides for a 34% strike rate and A/E of 1.57. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to bridge the gap to the uncontested leader in what is his first run at Leopardstown.
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4True Love63/100
True Love is a smart 3-year-old with a solid record and has already won over this trip. She showed useful placed form at shorter distances last time and arrives in good order, though the step back up to 1m asks a fresh question. A P O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from 2983 runs with an A/E of 0.88, and she won on her only previous visit to the track. The trainer and jockey combination records 3 wins from 11 rides for a 27% strike rate and A/E of 2.82. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will be among those trying to close on the leader from off the pace.
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5City Of Memphis60/100
City Of Memphis is a smart performer who has won four of his five starts including a course victory here over this trip. He handles good ground well and arrives in top form having landed three straight. P Twomey has a 25% strike rate at Leopardstown from 80 runs with an A/E of 1.09, while the trainer and jockey combination shows 178 wins from 660 rides for a 27% strike rate and A/E of 1.01. Usually held up, he will be coming from off the pace.
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6Carolina Jetstream52/100
Carolina Jetstream is a useful performer who has run creditably at this trip on two of her last three starts and holds a solid record on good ground having been placed in all three attempts. She has won twice at today's distance but arrives in modest recent form and faces a first run at Leopardstown. The trainer has yet to record a winner from 14 attempts at this track. Usually held up, her recent form figures read 402682.
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7Duckadilly50/100
Duckadilly is a useful performer who has won once from four starts at Leopardstown and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from six runs. He steps up in trip today having last run over 7f yet boasts two wins from seven starts at a mile so the extra distance looks a fair question rather than a negative. The trainer operates at a 5% strike rate from 20 runs here. Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form figures read -71515.
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8Meriden50/100
Meriden is a useful performer who has won four of his last six starts and showed strong course form when scoring here on his only previous visit to Leopardstown. He handles good ground well and has already won over today's trip, though he drops back in distance after his latest run over further. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at this track is a slight negative. Usually held up, his recent form figures read 111126.
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9Pivotal Attack45/100
Pivotal Attack is a useful performer who has run to a decent level on several occasions this year. Placed on his only visit to Leopardstown and drops back to 1m today after a recent effort over further, though he has failed to win or place in two previous tries at the trip. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative. Usually held up, his recent form figures read -38418.
KTB verdict
Fallen Angel is the KTB Selection. He brings smart ability, proven course form at Leopardstown where he has won from two starts, and the ideal run-style to take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape that offers an uncontested lead. Burke's 35% strike rate at the track further strengthens the case for a horse who has won three times on good ground and four times at the trip. The main dangers are Precise, who brings a strong recent record and the Moore/O'Brien axis, Blue Bolt who arrives on a four-timer, and True Love who has already won over course and distance.
KTB Selection Fallen Angel
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Fallen Angel, whose front-running style tends to make the running or race on the pace, aligns with the lone-leader pace shape that points to an uncontested lead.
How many of the field have previous winning form at Leopardstown?
Fallen Angel, True Love, City Of Memphis, Duckadilly and Meriden have all won at the track previously.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown in this race?
K R Burke has a 35% strike rate at Leopardstown from 20 runs with an A/E of 2.02.
Which horses are proven winners over the mile trip?
Fallen Angel has won four times at this trip, Precise three times, Blue Bolt seven times from nine starts, True Love has won over the trip, Carolina Jetstream twice, Meriden has won over the trip, and Duckadilly has two wins from seven starts at a mile.
Who has the best recent form among the principals?
Blue Bolt arrives with four straight wins from his last five starts and recent form figures of 2-1111.
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