3:30 Hereford
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Hereford over 2m3f147y on good to firm ground brings together eight runners, several of whom hold solid recent form yet face questions of trip, ground or course. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Donnie Azoff and Jaramillo separated by just a single point on 70 and 69 respectively, while the remainder tail away more noticeably. Overall the numbers point to a competitive renewal in which course and distance experience plus proven effectiveness on the surface will carry extra weight.
How the race shapes up
With two confirmed front-runners in Krak and Son of Hypnos, allied to the pace shape assessment of strong pace likely with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a keen gallop from the outset. Several hold-up horses, including the selection Donnie Azoff, Jaramillo and Devon Red, are poised to benefit if the leaders go too hard and the race collapses late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the hold-up brigade will sweep past as the stamina test unfolds in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Donnie Azoff KTB Selection70/100
Donnie Azoff is a smart performer who has won over this trip and landed a race here from three visits to Hereford. His recent form of 5-2122 demonstrates consistent placed efforts at shorter distances and he now steps up in trip for the first time in a while. Jamie Snowden holds a solid 17% strike rate at the track from 92 runs, while Isabelle Ryder, who takes the ride, boasts a 45% strike rate at Hereford from 11 rides. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, a run-style that looks ideal given the anticipated strong pace. He is placed once from two starts on good to firm, remaining competitive if not a winner on the surface. Rated 118, he arrives with the highest KTB Fit score of 70 and is the clear selection.
-
2Jaramillo69/100
Jaramillo is a smart performer with a solid career record who arrives in reasonable form after a placed effort last time out. He drops back in trip to a distance at which he has won twice from ten starts, and his good-to-firm record reads one win from four runs. Warren Greatrex has an 18% strike rate at Hereford from 107 runs although this will be the horse's first run at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his run-style should suit the expected strong pace that may collapse. Rated 113, he carries a KTB Fit score of 69 and is the closest pursuer to the selection on the numbers.
-
3Devon Red61/100
Devon Red is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes several placed efforts, most recently shown by his 424294 sequence. He steps up in trip today having only tried this distance once without success, while the going remains an unknown with just one run on good to firm. Nick Scholfield holds a strong 30% strike rate at Hereford from ten runs and Harry Reed has a 20% strike rate at the track from 40 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be suited by the strong pace on offer. Stepping up in class as well as distance, he is rated 96 with a KTB Fit score of 61.
-
4Krak58/100
Krak is a high-class performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that has been very consistent with five places from his last six starts. He steps up in trip today having already placed once over this distance though his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. Dan Skelton posts a solid 25% strike rate at Hereford from 145 runs, yet Charlie Todd is 0-28 at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he could set the strong tempo that is anticipated. Dropping in class from an official rating of 120, he carries a KTB Fit score of 58.
-
5Sixty Plus55/100
Sixty Plus is a smart performer who has won three times on good to firm ground, including at today's trip. He steps up from 1m6f today which poses a fresh question but the pedigree and past wins at this distance suggest it should cope. Usually held up, his trainer has a modest 8% strike rate from 13 runs at Hereford which is the main negative. Rated 115 with a KTB Fit score of 55.
-
6Whinney Hill48/100
Whinney Hill is a smart performer on his day but has been out of form for some time and the recent 4PP-50 reads poorly. The trainer is 0-21 at Hereford and the horse has never run on good to firm so both those factors are unknowns today. Dropping in class, the trip also looks on the short side. Rated 112 with a KTB Fit score of 48.
-
7Son of Hypnos42/100
Son of Hypnos is a useful performer who arrives in decent form having won at this trip earlier in the season and shown he handles good to firm ground. He steps up in distance today which poses a fresh question while this will be his first run at Hereford. The trainer has only had two runners here so far which is too small a sample to judge. Rated 102 with a KTB Fit score of 42.
-
8Department of War40/100
Department of War is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for some time and arrives with a poor recent record of 930P0/. The step up in trip is an unknown and he has shown no promise on good to firm ground in three previous attempts. His trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Hereford adds little encouragement. Rated 100 with a KTB Fit score of 40.
KTB verdict
Donnie Azoff stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer who has won over this trip and scored at Hereford from three visits, his consistent recent form of 5-2122 at shorter distances sets a strong standard. The combination of Jamie Snowden's solid record at the track and Isabelle Ryder's excellent 45% strike rate here further strengthens the case, while his hold-up style is perfectly placed to capitalise on the strong pace that is likely to collapse. Jaramillo, with his drop back to a winning distance and good-to-firm success, is the obvious danger, while Devon Red and the front-running Krak cannot be entirely dismissed if the race shape plays into their hands.
KTB Selection Donnie Azoff
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Hereford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hereford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hereford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hereford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Hereford?
Donnie Azoff has won here from three visits.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Hereford in this field?
Nick Scholfield has a 30% strike rate from ten runs, Dan Skelton 25% from 145 runs, and Jamie Snowden 17% from 92 runs.
Which runners are stepping up or dropping in class?
Devon Red and Son of Hypnos are stepping up in class, while Krak and Whinney Hill are dropping in class.
Who are the confirmed front-runners?
Krak tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, and Son of Hypnos also tends to make the running or race on the pace.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies